Survivor Power Rankings Week Twelve: The Finale

Another week, another person voted out with an idol in their pocket. It was a fitting end for Q who, after weeks of carefully playing his way out of the bottom ended up caught getting cocky at the exact wrong moment. I’m not really sure how he and Maria managed to convince themselves that could pull in Liz and Kenzie who were arguably two of the maddest people at Q in the game and both seemingly pretty close to Charlie, but they got the wool pulled over their eyes and now Maria has to essentially win out in the finale or her torch will get snuffed.

We are in the final five with only the finale remaining and I’m going to try something a bit different this week. Rather than do another set of winner power rankings (that will look pretty similar to my past rankings with some debate really only between Charlie or Maria for the top spot), I am going to do a ranking of what I think is the most likely final three scenarios and, if that scenario comes to fruition, my guess for how the voting might go. Let’s try this out …

10. Liz, Ben, Maria

While I could see Charlie and Kenzie being voted out, this scenario does depend on either an immunity or fire making upset from Liz/Ben. Most likely would have to be an immunity win and then one takes the other and I don’t think that is what either would choose to do in that spot.

Winner: Maria. She probably sweeps it.

9. Liz, Ben, Charlie

Basically the same thing that I said above applies here. I don’t see how Liz and Ben are both in the final three together unless Ben is way better at making fire than I am giving him credit for. I could see Charlie and Ben taking each other to the finals but under that scenario, Liz would have to win at fire and that seems highly improbable. This one rates slightly higher than the other because I think Charlie has slightly less of a target on his back than Maria.

Winner: Charlie. I also think he wins 7-1 or 8-0. Maybe Liz or Ben can catch a stray vote, but I doubt it.

8. Liz, Ben, Kenzie

This option seems unlikely to me for a couple reasons. If I was betting, I would guess that Maria or Charlie will win each of the next two immunities. It would take a shocker from Liz, Ben or Kenzie to flip the script and then also have someone to beat them in fire. Because that’s the other thing, in my fire power rankings (which is admittedly based on basically no data at this stage), I think Liz and Ben are two of the worst fire makers. Plus, as was said on the Know-It-Alls podcast by Stephen, it’s hard to imagine there being any drama at a final tribal with these three given the show hasn’t given much win equity to Ben or Liz so far.

Winner: Kenzie; she gets Tiff, Venus, Hunter and I think Soda, Maria, and probably Q as well. Tevin could go either way (is he bitter toward Liz or does he respect her game) and Charlie may throw Ben a vote.

7. Liz, Maria, Charlie

I think Liz is least likely to make it to the final three given a) she is not an immunity threat, b) she has not shown that she will go out looking for idols and c) she seemed to come up as potential target in last week’s episode, even if for a moment. If it is somehow not Charlie or Maria that goes at 5, I actually think most likely to get bounced is Liz. She has the least amount of tight bonds with anyone.

For this one to come to fruition, both Maria and Charlie would need to somehow survive the final 4 vote, which would be very tricky and then either Ben or Kenzie would need to get voted out. Can’t imagine its Ben so it would have to be Kenzie. Then Maria would have to win the immunity and take Liz with her which for whatever reason feels unlikely to me as well.

Winner: Maria; I don’t think Charlie can beat Maria without Maria on the jury. There’s too much for him to overcome in that scenario given what it seems the perception of him is out there.

6. Kenzie, Maria, Charlie

Now this would be a very fun final three, but I can’t see this happening. There are still two people that need to go home and these are very clearly the biggest threats left in the game. Barring an idol, you would have to imagine Maria or Charlie goes out at the final 5. I haven’t completely ruled out the possibility that Charlie can talk the others into keeping him around to beat Maria in the final immunity challenge since he is really their only chance at eliminating him (in which case maybe Liz goes home at 5?). Then one of these three wins the final immunity and does not choose Ben to take to the end? That would be a real shocker. Maybe Maria could take Charlie as a power move? Eh, I can’t really talk myself into it, but I suppose its plausible.

Winner: Maria, I think. Hard to imagine Charlie having much of a case if Maria is sitting next to him. Seems like the perception is that she was the ringleader and he was the follower. Even if he is potentially more likable, he doesn’t win the likability contest in this circumstance (and can he beat Kenzie in that contest?). I think Kenzie gets Tiff and Venus. Charlie gets Ben. Maria gets Soda, Tevin, Hunter, Q and Liz. But Kenzie could still manage to steal this thing if she flips over Ben, Liz and Hunter (needs five votes because Charlie would probably vote Maria in any tiebreaker).

5. Liz, Kenzie, Maria

If Maria wins out, I could definitely see this being the final three. Maria wins final five and manages to convince the girls that Charlie is too big of a threat for the end game so they kick him out. Then Maria wins at four and takes Liz, pushing Ben and Kenzie into fire where Kenzie has a nice moment that makes her an interesting threat for the victory. Technically, if Charlie goes at 5, even a Kenzie F4 immunity win would likely result her taking Liz and leaving Maria and Ben to fight it out in fire and we likely end up back here. This one is one of the first ones to feel possible.

Winner: Maria, I think. If she wins four immunities in a row to close out the game while also being one of the strategic leaders of the game, I think it would be a real surprise for her to lose. Not impossible given Kenzie’s social connections (she still probably gets Tiff, Venus and Ben, I think), but my bet is that there are 5 votes that clearly swing Maria.

4. Ben, Maria, Charlie

As I’ve already mentioned, Ben to me seems super unlikely to go at final five. Kenize, Maria and Charlie all probably feel like he’s a number for him plus he’s beatable. He’s also got a great shot at being taken to the final three. I think he would be the first choice for Kenzie or Charlie to take with them to sit in the finals. He technically has a chance of winning an immunity, but I doubt it.

So if we are looking at scenarios where Ben is in the final three, this one feels least likely to me. Liz or Kenzie would have to go out at five and the other would need to go out at fire. That’s possible for sure (as I’ve outlined, I think there is at least some chance for Liz to go out at five), but it still means that we have a vote where Charlie and Maria were both vulnerable to be voted out and nobody pulled the trigger on either of them and that doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen. But hey, if we get this, it’s quite a run for the Siga Three who went from their starting tribe all the way to the end together. That’s a story that makes sense.

Winner: As I’ve said, I don’t think Charlie can beat Maria in the end game. He’s probably got votes though, but he’d have more if he could have Ben on the jury. So I’m betting on Maria in this scenario.

3. Liz, Kenzie, Charlie

This particular scenario would need to be something like Maria goes out at five and then Kenzie wins final 4 immunity, takes Liz and forces Charlie and Ben to make a fire (there’s other possibilities, but I really struggle to configure a situation where anyone decides it makes sense to vote Ben out at five). That seems like a possible end game scenario and it would set up an interesting show down between Kenzie and Charlie to see who gets the title. This actually fits the narrative decently. I think there is a solid chance that Kenzie will lose to Charlie at final tribal. She has had a few different confessionals where she is underestimating his win equity and maybe that is the story of the season.

Winner: My instinct is Charlie based on the above but let’s see the votes. Charlie gets Maria and Ben (probably). I think Charlie also gets Soda and Tevin. Kenzie gets Tiff and Venus (probably). That would make the swing votes Hunter and Q and man what a tricky spot for them.

2. Ben, Kenzie, Maria

Although it’s not necessarily likely, I could definitely see a finale that includes Maria vs Charlie in a fire-making contest. Maybe Charlie puts himself there to try and take out Maria, maybe Kenzie or Ben wins and takes the other, leaving Charlie to finish the job for the team and coming up short. Given how central to the story the Maria-Charlie storyline has been, I think it would be fitting to see them in a dramatic fire making challenge. Charlie’s edit would also fit the narrative of “almost winner” that we have seen from many others in recent seasons.

There’s other scenarios that also get us to this point. I like this one a lot because we can end up here with Liz or Charlie going at final five. I also think it is very possible that Ben and Kenzie would take each other to the end given their bond. There’s a lot of paths we can take to this spot. And it would be an interesting vote between Maria and Kenzie.

Winner: At first, I never really expect Kenzie to have a shot, but when I add up votes, she always gets close. Ben still being in the game actually works against her, because I think she could use his vote, but I think she could get Tiff, Liz and Venus under the right circumstances. Could she steal Hunter, Tevin or Soda to get to four and force Ben to be the tiebreaker vote? Wouldn’t that be a fitting end to the season? Ben casts the deciding vote for Kenzie over Maria at the final tribal given the bonds that they created across tribes over a day one teammate in Maria? I’d love that ending, personally.

1. Ben, Kenzie, Charlie

This to me is most likely. If Maria goes at five, this feels like a lock for the final three. If Charlie wins final immunity, I bet he takes Ben and then Kenzie knocks out Liz in fire. If Ben wins, he could take Charlie or Liz and the other wins in fire. Kenzie might take Liz over Ben to try and get Ben on the jury as a vote for her, but their bond may also be enough for her to just take him. If Liz wins final immunity, then all bets are off I guess.

Winner: This looks a lot like scenario 3 so again my gut would say that Charlie surprises Kenzie for the win in a bit of a narrative surprise. I think Maria would go to the jury and be enough to convince a contingent to vote for Charlie and take this game. He gets Soda, Tevin, Maria and Q and then just needs to pick up one more. But can you imagine if Kenzie got Liz, Tiff, Venus and Hunter and then we had a 4-4 tie with Ben the deciding vote? His two biggest allies and best friends on the island and he has to pick who is going to actually win the thing.

I can picture it now. Ben walks up to the booth to cast his vote, agony and pressure all over his body. He can barely keep his addled mind straight. Kenzie makes a joke about how this time she hopes he writes her name down. Ben runs his hand through his hair and says “this does not rock”. And then he writes down …

…

Kenzie!

 

Only time will tell if I’m right …

 

Final Tally: Five for Maria, Three for Kenzie, Two for Charlie with Kenzie winning the two most likely scenarios (although I’m pretty sure I have some logic inconsistencies in there which we can ignore)

Survivor Power Rankings Week Eleven: The Curse Is Real

Due to some scheduling conflicts this week, I’m writing this almost a full week later than I usually do so my takes may not be quite as scorching hot as usual and my memory may not be quite as sharp either. But, hey, I have to manage my threat level out here.

7. Venus (Orange) – Down Two

I was concerned about Venus last week, but she ended up going up for a completely different reason than I was expecting this week. She ended up finding the idol and doing just barely too much with it (while simultaneously not doing enough with it) and she ended up blindsided and relegated to the jury. Even now I still can’t decide how I feel about Venus’s game. I consistently found myself saying things like “she’s right” while also seeing her castmates seemingly rag on her in every confessional. So was she a sneaky good player who just needed a few moves to steal the votes at the end or did she never have a chance because of a shaky social game? Not sure I will ever really know, but I do look forward to watching her on the jury.

6. Liz (Orange) – No Change

Outwit: 2 pt

Liz has been interesting TV these past few weeks and certainly meme-worthy, but I can’t imagine that she is our winner. It would be an all-time confusing victory arc in my eyes. Rarely do you see the person sleeping in the shelter while everyone is running around looking for idols go and win the thing. Although this season, the best thing you can do is not have an idol in your pocket. Those things are cursed.

5. Ben (Green) – Down One

Outlast: 2 pt

I dropped Ben here strictly because of the way the TV show is portraying him. On paper, he is likable, he has been a part of the majority alliance and he’s basically always been on the right side of the vote. He’s not a target and has some shields ahead of him that put him in an excellent spot to at least get to the end if not win this thing. However, the show has given him essentially no strategic content and, quite frankly, he hasn’t gotten much content at all in these critical episodes. If Ben wins the show, it feels like the editors did him pretty dirty out there. Had to be other ways to spin his story.

In terms of actual gameplay stuff that makes me concerned, my one pro for Ben was his relationship with Kenzie. I thought that would be an under the radar alliance that would help shape some of the end game with the two of them potentially working together to make a big move, particularly as Kenzie was gearing up for life without Tiff. But that didn’t materialize – in fact, Ben put the split vote on Kenzie this week to protect Q from a potential Venus idol play. She’s not going to be thrilled about that, essentially sinking the last thing that I thought Ben had going for him.

4. Q (Purple) – Up Three

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt + 1

I know that I’ve spent weeks now explaining that Q cannot win because no one will respect his game / want to reward his game at the end and I stand by that. I don’t think Q can win. But here’s the thing: if it is a Liz, Ben and Q final three (which I pray it is not), how can Q not be the winner? The show has invested so much more into Q than either of the other two and, dare I say, he’s the only one of the three who has really gone for it and played hard. I think this jury wants a winner that actually played the game and at least a few of them could put aside their feelings to ensure that their vote is consistent with that belief. Probably not Tiff or Kenzie but maybe Soda, Tevin, Hunter and Maria. One more would do it from there.

And to be fair to Q, he has been the undisputed target for three straight tribals and has not been voted out at any. In fact, he’s been a perfect smokescreen for his alliance to help take out a power player (or Venus) on each occasion and blindside someone with an idol. He gets another Outlast point for me just for the pure wildness that is this stretch of gameplay.

Like I said, he’s probably not going to win, but I think, at this point, he has the best odds of the long shots.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

Kenzie is an interesting spot. On the one hand, I feel like she has a lot of friends on the jury, a great social game and a good edit on the show. If she gets to the end, she has an interesting case for the million dollars and I would be at least a little afraid to go up against her. Realistically, if the winner is not Charlie or Maria, it’s gotta be Kenzie. However, I also think it’s super likely that Kenzie goes home next. She’s clearly at the bottom and, because she is still a threat, there’s not a lot of incentive to keep her around (honestly it is a credit to her social game that she was only the secondary target and not the primary this week). It kinda feels like she missed her window bailing on the Tiff blindside and that will be her story. Would love to be wrong given that she is my last hope for winning my Survivor fantasy league but I’m afraid this will end like every other season – me losing my Survivor fantasy league.

2. Charlie (Green) – Down One

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 3 pt

Charlie had held the top spot on my rankings for three straight weeks this week, but he slips down one position on this occasion. Charlie is still getting a glowing edit on the show and continues to get all the strategic story telling confessionals, strong social clips and just has the appearance of a very capable game player. However, I was not a fan of what he decided to do this episode. To me, it seemed like the move was to take out Q and weaken Maria a bit. I think he could justify it to Maria and still pull her back in the next week (where else is she going at this point?) and they could choose to vote out Kenzie or Venus at six if they felt that were the best move. The Q-Maria duo could end up his undoing in this game if he’s not careful. Plus, the players on the season do not see him as a mover and a shaker – they just see him as Maria’s “jester”. This doesn’t help that image any and, if he only takes her out when he’s at the very end and has to do it, is that really much of a move?

If you are playing devil’s advocate, you can point out there are still multiple votes left to get out Maria. I don’t think Charlie should have voted out Maria this episode if she didn’t have immunity because then Charlie would open himself up to go next, so he needs her around and probably needs her comfortable enough that he can pull off a blindside. And, of course, making the move to vote out Q would tie Charlie to Venus -  a person that they trusted so little that they went to Liz, mere moments after she had a massive outburst at the reward challenge, to make their move against Tiff. Venus with a secret advantage had to be even more scary to Charlie and, realistically, he was never going to hitch himself to that wagon.

For the most part, I like what Charlie is doing and it seems like the show likes what he is doing as well. He feels like he has a really great read on this game from a strategy perspective in all ways except … does anyone on the island now that he is playing a great game? It kinda feels like they don’t. Those are the people that ultimately pick the winner, not us, and that could be Charlie’s biggest problem right now. I hope he is timing out his finishing kick just right and he’s going to sprint into the lead at the last possible moment to steal this thing, but my confidence slipped a little compared to last week.

1. Maria (Green) – Up One

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt + 1

Outlast: 1 pt

Maria is back in the #1 spot for the first time since she started the season there in four straight editions of the rankings. She had sort of faded into the background for a stretch, but now she’s back in a big way. Last week she goes ahead and leads the blindside against Tiffany, giving herself a massive end game chip and this week she potentially saves herself from going home with a clutch immunity win. Sure, she fumbled the bag when picking people to come with her on the reward, but nobody is perfect.

She may be the biggest threat left on the board, but she is also the only person who can say, with confidence, as long as they make it to the end, they win. If she is good at making a fire (any idea if she is?), she only has to survive two more votes to be at final tribal. She could do that win another immunity win (she has two already) or potentially even find the idol that will be coming back into play after the Venus vote. This next vote, she would need two of Charlie, Q and Ben to turn on her to be punted out of this game – it’s possible that none of them will actually do it. Let’s see if she can push her luck all the way to the finale!

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Ten: Eating Good In the Neighborhood

This episode was very fun. And its even more fun because I have no idea what is going to happen next. Probably whoever finds the rehidden idol will immediately be blindsided.

8. Tiffany (Purple) – Down Three

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

Another episode, another person that goes home with an idol in their pocket. That’s the third time it’s happened this season and, by the way, there’s still time for it to happen one more time. I feel like we have reached the point now that it’s clear you aren’t going to be able to “read” the other players in the game and deduce when to play the thing and if your idol is public knowledge this early, it incentivizes people even more to blindside you. Just a bummer because I really enjoyed Tiff. She probably will be a fun juror though.

7. Q (Purple) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

At this point, I’m pretty sure the jury would rather give the $1 million to Jelinsky than give the money to Q. Not because they don’t want Q to have the money, but because they would never ever want him to feel validated that his strategy actually led to him winning. He’s a huge goat and he can probably ride that right into the end game, especially now that Maria has taken him under her wing as a personal extra vote.

Keeping all this in mind, is there any point where Q starts to get credit for what he’s doing? Maybe not in the eyes of the jury but perhaps in the eyes of the fans? He’s actually been playing super low key these last two episodes while sucking up all the attention of the people who are being blindsided. It would not have been possible to blindside two people with idols without him playing this pretty much perfectly. How much actual agency does he have? At this stage, very little – but the more threats that go out the closer he is to that coveted Venus-Liz-Q final three and then all bets are off.

6. Liz (Orange) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt + 1

I’m giving Liz the Outwit point here for putting aside her hunger and her thirst for vengeance to make what I think was a smart move and blindside Tiff. Liz cannot beat many people in this game – you can argue she can’t beat anyone – but she has to like her odds against Q. Why waste a vote on him when you get out a real threat with an idol and challenge skills? However, I do not think Liz’s temper tantrum helped her win equity very much. Do I blame her for being upset that the one person who is not going to pick her to go on this reward won the challenge and subsequently did not pick her to go on the reward? Especially given that she is literally the world’s biggest Applebee’s fan? No, I do not blame her. But I don’t think it was a good look – particularly the part how she was mad at Q for blowing up her game. That part just seemed a little pouty to me and sort of undermines the seriousness/strategicness of her gameplay. Now that the show gifted her some rice, I am hoping she can get things under control because she still has at least some shot to win this thing as long as she can manage to be more likable than Q and Venus.

By the way, not a great a sign that Liz was real bad at making the fire this episode. Feels like that could have been foreshadowing for a loss in the firemaking challenge at the final four.

5. Venus (Orange) – Up One

I went back and forth about this one for Venus. On the one hand, I still think she’d be the favorite in a Q-Liz-Venus final three. I’d think she’d get Soda’s vote. I think she’d get Hunter’s vote. I think she’d get Tiff’s vote. I don’t think Liz would sweep the rest and I’m positive Q wouldn’t. So, she has that going for her. On the other hand, the Hunter-Tiffany blindsides back-to-back week combined with the continued goatification of Q has really thinned out the number of threats that are actually left in this game. Given how savvy Charlie, Maria and Kenzie have been so far, I am starting to think they may all look at each other and say, “hey, should we maybe start getting rid of some of these goats?” It has not once crossed their mind before so I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but the power players are making a risky move if they continue to go after each other and leave door open for the bottom dwellers to flip this on its head.

And, of course, Charlie and Maria went to Liz – who spent the entire last three days groaning about how much she is mad at Q and not sorry about it – over Venus to make the Tiffany blindside happen because they don’t trust Venus. They can at least work with Q and Liz, but Venus is very expendable. Plus, she could start to get aggressive/crazy with her gameplay after being on the wrong side of the vote for the first time all season. Certainly feels more likely than her calmly and quietly trying to reintegrate into the numbers.

4. Ben (Green) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

Ben is in a very weird spot. As you’ve probably noticed if you’ve been reading along with my rankings, I do not buy the narrative that Ben can win this game. I don’t really see his strategic chops and, although he is likable and a good guy, I don’t think he has the serious, cutthroat, mastermind vibe that all of these people obsessed with making big moves are going to turn around and give the title to. I also find it very difficult to see a scenario where he is at the end with Kenzie, Maria AND Charlie, seeing as those are his three biggest allies. Can’t imagine Ben beats any of them.

But obviously the jury would give it to him over Q, Venus and Liz so.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

It is not often that a player benefits from being blindsided at tribal, but this whole Tiffany situation may have worked out OK for Kenzie. Sure, she doesn’t get the point for being the architect of the Tiff blindside, but she also doesn’t get the target that comes with voting her out either. She gets to have relatively little blood on her hands for this whole situation and there’s no way the fact that she floated Tiffany’s name last week can blow up her spot because Tiff is gone now. I’m pretty sure Tiff is a vote for Kenzie in the final 3 if she manages to get there. She’s definitely going to be vulnerable this next week, but if she can wriggle free of the vote, I think she has a really good chance at this thing. Hypothetically, if Maria or Charlie goes next week instead of her, I think there’s a very good chance the other one goes the next week (assuming no immunity wins or idol finds mess that up). A final 5 of Kenzie, Ben, Q, Venus and Liz would be super ideal for her – Ben is her #1 and I don’t think he would have the heart to backstab her and I have no faith that Venus, Q and Liz are going to suddenly team up against them.

That’s the ideal scenario for her, but how likely is that to happen really?

2. Maria (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 1 pt + 1

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

To me, this was Maria’s best episode of the season. I thought she was awesome in the first episode, but I hadn’t been super impressed with her gameplay since then. However, I really liked this episode for her. To me, she was clearly the architect of the Tiff blindside. She wanted to vote out Tiff for a while and she got her wish. She brought in Q. She brought in Liz. The way she pitched to both of them was brilliant too. She played perfectly on both of their egos in a way that honestly may help keep her threat level in check.

However, the big question for me heading into the next episode is: will Charlie and Maria both be able to survive? In theory, the other players will be able to deduce that they are the biggest threats to win this thing and the only strong pair remaining in the game and they will feel a need to break them up. And the real wildcard – will they turn on each other? There have been no signs of that at all and maybe in a season filled with people turning against their top allies these two will go all the way to the end together, but maybe they are just the last domino to fall. I think the final 7 is too early to turn on each other (as mentioned, if one goes next week, I think the other is likely to follow directly behind), but I could see a huge vote coming at the final 6. If Kenzie goes this week, what other threat is left to distract the bottom dwellers with?

1. Charlie (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 3 pt

You could certainly make the case that Charlie should be knocked off his perch this episode. He was more of a follower than a leader in the Tiff blindside. He has established himself as the biggest challenge threat remaining after a 2^nd and two 1^sts in successive match-ups. And I think losing Tiff was more costly for him than anyone else in the game because they had a good working relationship, she was a physical shield and she is most likely to feel burned by him than anyone else (besides Q of course).

But this may all work out OK for Charlie. Maria’s big move may be enough to distract people from the fact that he is a challenge beast and, if they take the shot at their pair, it may be Maria that they choose to go for. To steal directly from something a friend of mine said, Charlie is not seen as a leader and that probably works in his favor. I’m obviously super bias since I’ve been rooting hard for him since day one, but I just feel like he has a really good read on the game. He seems to be riding that line between building a resume and not becoming a threat. He has a good relationship with everyone but he is not such a bright, shining light of charisma that he can’t fade into the background when it suits him. And I love that he waited until his confessional to brag about all the grip strength workouts he’s been doing rather than doing some crazy gymnastics celebration in front of the rest of the cast Hunter-style. I am confident he is a good player. He might be this season’s Carson or this season’s Jesse. Or perhaps he could be the guy that finally slips through and wins it.  

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Nine: Get Your Popcorn Ready

From the wackiness of Q, to an incredible split-vote blindside – what a two episode stretch! The logistics of this vote were really quite awesome. They managed to leave both Liz and Q out of the vote while still executing a perfect split that ensured if Hunter didn’t play his idol, he’d be going home. They accomplished exactly what they needed to, left the bottom dwellers at the bottom and made the threats feel comfortable while they line up to go after one another in the pivotal 8 and 7 votes. Things are getting spicy.

9. Hunter (Orange) – Down Three

Outplay: 4 pt

Play your idol! Play your idol!! PLAY YOUR IDOL!!! Dang man, these players crossed up this kid good. When you establish yourself as a challenge beast, your road to the end becomes very difficult very quickly and it isn’t helped much when your #1 ally gets voted out, leaving you on the bottom. To me at home it felt like a no brainer to play that thing, but that is why I type out thoughts on a computer rather than getting spun around in a metaphorical washing machine by the cunning cold-blooded killers like Kenzie and Charlie. I’m getting motion sickness just thinking about it.

People are getting really good at blindsiding people with idols in their pocket. I think there needs to be a reset from the players on Survivor about needing to play your idol at the perfect time for it to be seen as a big move and help your resume to just playing it whenever you get the slightest bit uncomfortable. You just aren’t going to sniff it out of people and you can’t trust your #1 allies to tell you anymore because people turn on their #1 allies all the time. If you’re wrong, fine, but at least you’re still in the game. Heck, maybe it would actually lower your threat level to play it wrong and help shift the target off of you.

But, hey, even if he did play it, he was probably going to be the target every vote they could get him from here to the end, so maybe it didn’t matter much either way. I guess we’ll never know.  

8. Q (Purple) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I think this episode proved very clearly that no one respects Q’s gameplay and that he isn’t going to get votes at the end because who would want to reward such behavior? Ironically, Q’s antics last tribal probably prolonged his lifespan in this game as a) he lowered his threat level (too much, but hey, he did it), b) he stole a move from Liz (but I mean, it’s Liz so like was that really necessary) and c) people are so distracted by what he happened that he is a great decoy vote for people to use as they blindside the actual threats (as long as an idol play doesn’t ricochet onto him). Like I said, I don’t think he has any real case to make at the end, but in the bizzarro world of a Venus-Liz-Q final 3, I guess conceivably he can win this thing.

7. Liz (Orange) – No Change

Outwit: 1 pt

Discussed this with two-thirds of the people reading this already, but I feel like Liz should have been happy that Q stole her thunder and allowed her to hide after making a real big move to take out Tevin, but she was pretty upset about it. Sure, some of that is her cockiness, sure some of that is severe 72 hours of hunger, but I think a lot of it stems from the fact that Liz can feel her chances in this game slipping away very quickly. She has very few opportunities left to garner respect and take control and she just got left out of the vote this week – only her Q and Hunter didn’t know what was up. No one is rushing to get out Liz, but the door that I saw squeak open last week seems to have closed. And, oh by the way, that hunger is only going to get worse from here.

6. Venus (Orange) – Up Two

I keeping trying to find ways to contort myself into giving Venus a point for something. She’s the only one left in the rankings without any points after Liz got her first point last week. To be fair, Venus is on a hot streak as Soda, Tevin and Hunter were all people she wanted to seek revenge on and successfully voted out. And all three of those people have written her name down – everyone who has written down Venus has gone home (besides Charlie). That should make her a savvy strategist and threat to win the game. The problem seems to be that Venus knows that she has been successful lately and more self confidence is probably not what the doctor ordered for Venus right now. But hey, I can see a world where she beats Liz and Q at the end and so here she is.

5. Tiffany (Purple) – Down One

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

The drop continues for Tiff this week. After coming dangerously close to being blindsided last week, she has another brush with disaster this week and both of her #1 allies have turned against her. She has no real protection and no real shield either. And I know you saw how jacked her arms looked at that challenge.

Kenzie wants to vote her out as a move. Maria wants to vote her out as a move. Nobody will want to go to the end with her. Now if she gets there, she will have the best of anybody for the $1 million, but, regrettably, that is starting to feel like a real longshot at this stage. And she must sense it because she lost her cool a couple times with Q in some near costly ways. Hopefully she won’t be afraid to play her idol next week.

4. Ben (Green) – Up One

Outlast: 2 pt

Yo, we low key got a fiery Ben this week. He was not happy with Q and unironically angry about it, both to confessional and just out in the open. I liked it honestly because this happy go lucky attitude has not been my personal cup of tea, this feels a lot more authentic. Does it actually help his game? Eh, probably not. It probably hurts it as the hunger is likely taking its toll out there. The good news for Ben is that I think he has earned a new #1 in Kenzie. The reason Kenzie feels like she can turn on Tiff is because she has Ben. He’s actually very well positioned right now – not a huge threat, but well insulated within a few different alliances and very likable. I don’t think he can beat any of the big 4 at the end, but if he seems like he’ll at least have a say in the end game.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – Down One

Outlast: 2 pt

I did not like this episode for Kenzie. She left herself very exposed with this Tiff thing and I hate turning on your #1 ally this early in the game. Charlie and Maria have that to use against her if/when the time is right and, at this point, I’d be pretty stunned if they don’t use it. The only hope here is that Maria seems to really want to get Tiff out and, if they want to blindside her, they are going to need to keep her feeling good and telling Tiff that Kenzie is going after her would be the opposite of that.

If I am taking a step back here, you can see some logic for Kenzie’s move. She is a great social player and she has positioned herself well, making a deep connection with Ben, seemingly having some connection with Venus and having at the very least a working relationship with the power couple of Charlie and Maria (even Hunter was calling her his #1 this episode?). Cutting Tiff could lessen her threat level in some ways as she wouldn’t be a part of a duo, but it is also a move for her that she can point to at the end. The later the game goes, the less likely it is that she can blindside Tiff and if she doesn’t get Tiff out of the game and she feels (correctly?) that she can’t beat her at the end, then she doesn’t win. That’s not ideal. You want to win, I’m almost positive.

Personally, it feels like she’s a little too exposed at this point and she will, best case, be making a fire at the final three with a chance to take the $1 mil if she is fast enough. Worst case, things get out about what she tried to pull and she goes down next week.

2. Maria (Green) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

At this point, it would be very difficult to argue that Charlie and Maria aren’t running this thing. They seem to be at the center of every vote, they have a good relationship with everyone and they not really on the radar. It’s interesting because, to me, it feels like Charlie is the guy pulling the strings, but to others that I have talked to/listened to on podcasts, they feel like it is Maria’s show and Charlie is along for the ride. If that is the prevailing sentiment on the island, then Maria is set up very well for a victory. My interpretation of how the people on the island feel at this exact moment is that Charlie is a nice guy and more likable but Maria is the serious game player and so, right now, she would probably get the votes at the end. However, there’s still time for that to flip (or for Maria to catch the bullet meant for Charlie).

I think the very interesting domino will be what happens with Tiff. Maria really wants to get Tiff out, but I don’t know if Charlie shares that opinion. I think Charlie and Tiff have a low-key strong relationship out on the island and they really trust each other. If Maria manages to get Tiff out and puts that blindside in her cap, it not only is a point in her column, but also a chip at Charlie’s armor.

1. Charlie (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: + 1

Outlast: 3 pt

Let’s do it. Let’s give Charlie another point. Since I don’t know who deserves credit for the vote split, nor do I know who to give the credit to for manipulating Hunter into not playing his idol (could argue Kenzie, Hunter’s #1, could argue Charlie, Mr. Cool, or you could even argue Venus who was the one on the inside that got the information to the big alliance about Hunter’s idol – did I just talk myself into a point for Venus? Eh, too late now, I’ve already moved on to the last paragraph, there is no way for me to change it now), I guess that means Charlie gets the only point of the night.

I sung Charlie’s praises last week so I’ll try not to get carried away here, but it was huge of him to win that immunity that opened the door for them to take out Hunter. Plus he got a confessional talking about how much he hates throwing challenges. Both of those point to an Outplay point for sure. He’s now got all three aspects of the resume filled in, it’s just a matter of if he can continue to navigate his way to the finish and then present his case to the jury (as the law student he is).

I still can’t get over how the other players said “aww” when he won the necklace this episode. They literally “awwwed”. I think that’s almost the perfect place to be. Everyone likes you and thinks you are sweet, but no one is awwwing somebody they think is a huge threat. He’s really set up to get to the end and, as a viewer at home, I think he has an excellent case to win once he gets there. But, much like I said in the Hunter section, what I am typing at home is worthless garbage. Or something like that.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Eight: Extra Credit

Well, whether you call it the +1 alliance or the “The Six” or Q’s crew, the big alliance that was hoping to run the game exploding spectacularly this week and, while I don’t think anyone was expecting that group to ride all the way to the end, it leaves a real gaping hole in the Survivor landscape. I’m definitely interested to see the fall out from this one and to try and laser in on who is a genius and who is just good TV. Was Q’s move at tribal council part of a next-level strategy or is he just a car crash you can’t look away from? Is Venus low-key a manipulator of this game or is she just that cringe type of humor that keeps you watching? Does Ben rock at this game or is he just nice? Is Liz “Cocky B” Wilcox about to steal a $1 million to add to her stash or is she just a person that is on TV? The lines are getting blurry and I honestly don’t know anymore.

 

10. Tevin (Orange) – Down Four

My wife has been on this for a few weeks now, pointing out Tevin’s rather villainous edit, and we see it come to fruition here when he gets caught completely napping in his vote out this episode. Didn’t really come close to sniffing out his blindside at any point during this game and in successive weeks voted out Soda, who though of him as one of her best allies, and then made Liz mad enough to turn on him by taking too much credit for voting out Soda. He also got way to invested in the six which, as some people out there could clearly see, was never a feasible way to make it to the end. Tev, your voice will be missed.

9. Q (Purple) – No Change

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

One week after I proclaimed that Q had his worst episode of the season, he comes back and says hold my rice. Keep in mind that this episode began with him throwing away social bonds and putting way too much emphasis on strategy and then later had him turning on his own #1 ally. That right there would have been problematic, but then he lost it at tribal and made literally everyone left in the game angry with him. The one thing I felt he had going for him was that, if he somehow got to the end, he could point to doing it despite being a big presence would drove a lot of votes and I think that jury would have respected it. Now, I don’t think there’s much respect (or trust) left for Q and that leaves him out of options. Maybe he will be a goat to bring to the end at this point, but that’s about the best he can hope for. Even Jelinsky had a better episode than Q because at least that man got yet another shout out for his legendary one-episode performance and maybe he will get to come back and play again one day.

8. Venus (Orange) – Up Two

I continue to have mixed feelings about the game Venus is playing. On the one hand, she is playing hard. She’s trying to make moves, she competes well in the challenges and, by the way, the two people that she has wanted to get out of this game got blindsided in back-to-back weeks. Unfortunately, no one on the island seems to respect her game at all and that is not a good sign for her jury chances because, at this point, I don’t really know how she can possibly shake that off, but at some point the fact that she continues to not get voted out and get the people she wants voted out will start to count for something right?

On the other hand, Venus seems to really lack self-awareness and while there are a ton of different personalities and skill sets that have won survivor, I feel like you absolutely need to have strong self awareness. Or at least the strongest self awareness of the other people sitting at final tribal so that you can make your case to the jury and get the majority of votes. So in that sense, she can probably only beat Q.

7. Liz (Orange) – Up One

Outwit +1

Look, I’ve got to give Liz a point here because she was the driver of this blindside and it is a resume point that she was in dire need of. No one was respecting Liz’s gameplay out there or in here. She’s quickly climbed up the ranks and is no longer among the bottom dwellers. There’s a ray of light where you can see her taking this thing. As much as it was encouraging to see her edit pick up this episode, I do think there could be some negative repercussions of her actions. For starters, she just voted out someone who was working with her and probably one of her closer allies (although, can you really tell with Liz?) and she further weakened Orange who, after losing two players in a row, could potentially continue to be a target next week (although I said the same thing about Green and now look at them). Plus, now Liz has a move and sometimes the tallest weed gets chopped or whatever the expression is. But hey, if you are a Liz fan you have to at least be encouraged that we have genuine gameplay to dissect here rather than just some joke about her looking like Moriah.

6. Hunter (Orange) – Down Four

Outplay: 4 pt

A few weeks back, I talked myself into Hunter as a contender, but I am waffling hard after watching this latest episode. The positive is that, while all alliances were crumbling, his name did not come up at all (yes, he was immune for half the time, but even before that he was seemingly a non-target). People don’t seem to be locked on him as an end game threat and I think that is an oversight. The problem for him now is that The Six has absolutely crumbled and that was the biggest source of his protection. To make matters worse, he lost his number one ally in Tevin. To make matters even worse, he lost Q as a shield because either Q is going quickly given that no one trusts him / they think he wants to quit or no one is going to even bother with Q because he has lost all credibility as a jury threat. Even though he won immunity this week, that could work against him too because it reminds everyone that this guy is a physical beast who could go on a run at the wrong time and steal this thing. He’s still got his idol, but he might need to play it as soon as next week to stay in this game.

5. Ben (Green) – Up Two

Outlast: 2 pt

I thought Ben was in big trouble this week and all he did was put his head in his shirt and it was impossible for anyone to target him. Ben has this way of being both social and likable but also so incredibly non-threatening that people don’t seem to be all that interested in using a vote on him. I just can’t get over the metaphor of him tying Hunter in hide and seek – they both accomplished the same thing: one by using super athleticism and flash to climb up into a tree and one by doing something that I would do when I run out of ideas playing with my niece. Is Ben a genius survivor player? I cannot decide. Even the rock puns are growing on me a little bit.

Eh, not that’s a lie, I still hate them.

4. Tiff (Purple) – Down Three

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

My top four here are sort of in their own tier at this point and it’s no coincidence that these are the two closest pairs in a game that just got flipped on its head. My previous number one Tiff slips down the rankings this week, much like she did in the Get a Grip challenge, because it’s really difficult to hold on when the margins are this thin. Tiff was a target this episode and, while she seemed to survive without much trouble, it wasn’t great for her that a) Q turned on her, b) she threw out Maria’s name and made an enemy of one of the other power players and c) her idol is either about to be or already is public knowledge. These are all things that I think she can pivot around, but her threat level is elevated and her numbers shrank so, in this wild landscape that is starting to take shape, Tiff is in at least some danger.

3. Maria (Green) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I feel slightly better about the Charlie-Maria pairing and their connections than the Tiff-Kenzie duo so Maria gets the nod here at number three. However, Maria’s name also came up tonight and, while it never seemed to take hold, she is also trickling onto people’s radars as a threat. I was pretty encouraged by her episode this week and feel like she is built for a nice run to the end, however, I do feel like Charlie seems to be getting a lot more of the strategic confessionals and we are seeing things much more through his eyes. Is that a sign that he is getting the winner’s edit or just a sign that he is better at talking to the camera?

2. Kenzie (Purple) – Up One

Outlast: 2 pt

If you go back through my posts, I’ve never doubted Kenzie’s ability to make connections or her win equity, I’ve merely doubted her ability to camouflage. I think it is safe to say that she has mastered that part of the game and she has a pretty brilliant merge. If she hadn’t already, she has officially usurped Q to become Tiff’s #1 ally. She has a great connection with Ben which I think could be critical in the power vacuum that is left after the break-up of The Six. And, oh by the way, she wasn’t in The Six so it’s pretty great for her that it broke up. Meanwhile, Tiff and Q are the bigger threats. It’s 3-3-3 between Green, Purple and Orange so it’s time for the players to start looking at weakening Purple but with the public idol and Tiffany out ahead of her, Kenzie should hopefully be in a strong enough spot to weather the storm.

1. Charlie (Green) – Up Four

Outwit: 1 pt + 1

Outlast: 2 pt + 1

Yes, I’m doing it. Two points for Charlie tonight. I thought this was a monster episode for him. To me, he got an excellent edit. He got a lot of strategic confessionals, he narrated the break up of The Six from start to finish (after weaseling his way into The Six due to his social ability and sycophantism) and he did just enough in the challenge to show everyone he is a competitor without becoming overly threatening. No one seems to think he is a threat (which eventually becomes a problem, but that is a later problem) and a lot of people seem to really trust him. Tiff came to him at tribal and he reassured her in a way that probably bumps him ahead of Q. Liz seemed to spend a lot of time with Charlie and Maria trying to hatch this plan. We know Ben and Maria love him, dating back to his days on Siga (that’s the Green tribe – I’ve finally learned all the tribes names now). Even he and Venus seem to be on decent terms at this stage in the contest. I don’t know, maybe I’m a sucker for the edit, but this guy really felt like a winner tonight. Let’s find out if I’ve got it right.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Seven: If You're Not In the Fight ...

Things are starting to heat up as we narrow the field down to just 10 and (hopefully) get to start playing some authentic merge Survivor next week. Here’s how I see the landscape right now – it’s sort of a two tier system with five contenders and five hopefuls (three of which I can’t say I have high hopes for). This is what I’ve got for ya …

12. Tim (Green) – Down Two

Tim, we hardly knew ya. Right when you were making your way up the charts and becoming something of a recognizable character, you were cut down one spot short of the jury. Ultimately, it seems that Tim was not willing to cut ties with the Green tribe and take advantage of the +1 alliance opportunity and his failure to commit left him without any partners in the end. But, hey, the man is still a game changer when it comes to wearing his buff.

11. Soda (Orange) – Down Two

They’ve been foreshadowing the downfall of Soda for a little bit now and while I hoped she might be able to turn things around, she couldn’t diminish the heat all around her. It was kind of an odd game for Soda. On the one hand, Venus wanted to get her out because she was always being held at an arm’s length from any real alliance talk (and grabbing the immunity idol until that was held at an arm’s length for a little revenge). Meanwhile, Tevin – who seemed to be her #1 ally – decided to take her out at spot 11 because he saw her as a big social threat? Very odd dichotomy there, but hey I guess that’s the game sometimes.

10. Venus (Orange) – Up One

Although Venus did technically move up one spot in the rankings this week, I don’t think this was an encouraging round for the #JuisticeforVenus movement. This episode really seemed to expose her as a tad socially inept and the edit sort of dunked on her when Soda was giving her the credit for the blindside, even though we at home all feel like it was Tevin (who voted for Venus? So who knows). While Venus is has a decent chance at going far at this game, it’s only because no one seems willing to give her a $1 million vote. She’s still not all that trustworthy and she’s built no real bonds out there to start changing up the game and making moves. It’s not going to be her season, but she may get the chance to play again one day and team with Angelina or something.

9. Q (Purple) – Down One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

It pains me to say this, but I think Q may have had the worst night of anyone in episode several. While he continues to accumulate more agency and influence (which technically adds to his win equity), he is simultaneously making himself into a bigger and bigger target. It’s so big at this point that both Tiffany and Kenzie can hide comfortably behind him – and Hunter is trying to see if he can fit too. Plus, he’s kinda making everyone angry in the process by bossing them around and telling them what to do. He really is a Boston Rob kinda player out there but without the mindless minions or the past successes. He’s fascinating to watch, but I am now almost positive that his story is likely more “final boss” than winner.

8. Liz (Orange) – Up Four

From the game’s biggest, loudest, most imposing target, to the game’s smallest and least intimidating. On a night where there were only five people in her group eligible to be voted out, Liz was the only person whose name did not come up once. It was so not considered that Liz didn’t even need to bring her bag to tribal council and everyone was very much OK with that. Liz has seemingly been a confident (cocky?), rich son of a gun out there and that feels like it would rub people the wrong way and not inspire them to vote for her in the end game – but who the heck is using a vote to take out Liz at this point in the game? She’s not some wildcard like Venus or some big physical or social threat either. She can’t even jump. Wait, no, that was Moriah.

7. Ben (Green) – No Change

Outlast: 1 pt + 1

I have decided to give Ben another outlast point here because, somehow, he has survived near certain death again. I think there were only two players out of the six voting that had any incentive at all to vote Tim over Ben and those were Kenzie and Ben himself, so that’s a big win for the both of them. Unlike the other three people below him on this list, Ben at least seems to have accrued some win equity. He is likable and sweet and the kind of guy you would give $1 million to plus people have at least been acknowledging him as a social threat which means they could spin a yarn to justify voting for him. That said, I think the Green tribe is in a really precarious spot right now – especially Ben. He’s going to need to keep that charm turned up to 11 right now if he’s going to keep it (rocking and) rolling.

6. Tevin (Orange) – Down One

I’ve been having a hard time with Tevin as he is right on the cusp of being considered a true contender. I like the guy, I think he has some social skills, he wants to play hard and I think he could really get a crowd on his side at a final tribal council. However, I am not sure I have actually liked his gameplay so far. Despite clocking Venus as a threat who he knows is gunning for him, he has not taken her out when he has had the chance. Instead, he took out Soda who completely trusted him and, seemingly, could have been taken out later if necessary (which, like, would it have been?). His number one alliance mate his Hunter who I think he wants to use as a shield, but that is a shield with a very sharp blade on it and he is to be careful when he is wielding it that he doesn’t accidentally impale himself. Plus, he technically didn’t even vote the right way this tribal (although I think it’s safe to say he was in on the plan) when he voted for Venus instead of Soda – why did he do that? The pieces are there with Tevin, but I’m not confident he is going to put them all together. One wildcard: Tevin does still have his extra vote.

5. Charlie (Green) – Down One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt + 1

This is now two straight weeks that Charlie has been a prime and, dare I say, most appealing, target to vote out and two straight weeks where he has completely avoided any votes. That speaks to a strong social game and he gets an outlast point for that for sure. While last episode kind of felt like they dismissed the idea of going for him because he wasn’t a threat, this episode showed that people felt he was sweet and trustworthy which is much more appealing of a narrative for a potential winner. For me, this top five is still largely interchangeable until we see how things shake out. I’ve liked his gameplay, but I don’t love how the chips have fallen around him. He is only tangentially connected to the +1 alliance, the Green tribe has been greatly diminished and there are a lot of threats that he has to find a way to take out if he is going to win the game. If he’s at the end with any of Hunter, Tiffany, Kenzie or Maria, do we think the jury would give him enough votes to beat them as of right now? I don’t think so. But there is still time to change that narrative.

4. Maria (Green) – Down One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outplay +1

Outlast: 1 pt

Maria picked up the overall win in the immunity challenge today which was excellent and she earned an outplay point for that. I think that is a nice chip to have on the resume, especially as a “older woman” who doesn’t usually get a lot of credit for the physical aspect of survivor in the eyes of the others. It’s clear that she has the complete package (is now the only person with a point in all three categories) and her edit has been pretty darn good. The one downside is the positioning of the Green tribe. Could she get picked off at some point soon or can she rally the troops to flip it? She’s still got her #1 in Charlie and they are one of the tightest twos left on the beach, but with 10 people left she needs a couple more names to get cleared out for that to be enough to get them to the end game.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – Up Three

Outlast: 1 pt + 1

This was a huge night for Kenzie. Not only did she win individual immunity to guarantee that she wasn’t going home, but she got to save Ben who has the potential to be a real number for her in this game or maybe even a jury vote for her at the end. Her social play has never been in doubt, but I was worried she would have trouble containing her threat level. It seems like, at least so far, she has managed to do that (although I kind of felt like Q was trying to throw her under the bus as a huge threat at tribal). The tides also seem to be shifting to her side with Tiff who now officially seems more connected to her than Q. Plus, the +1 alliance beginning to crumble (an alliance she was not technically a part of) opens up the game for her to factor into the end scenarios. She’s a winner threat.

2. Hunter (Orange) – No Change

Outplay: 4 pt

I think Hunter did exactly what he needed to do in this episode. He survived the vote without playing his idol and without upping his threat level with an immunity win. For someone who has been as flashy as Hutner to this point, the best thing that can happen to him is that he is forgotten about. He’s just counting down the votes until he can’t be voted out anymore and is guaranteed a spot at final tribal. Obviously, at some point he will need to do something to pad his post merge resume, but I think that will come in due time. Not sure how hiding in the tree fits into that plan, but I’m excited to find out.

1. Tiffany (Purple) – No Change

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

Tiff took over the top spot in the rankings last week based on her positioning at the merge and nothing in this week’s episode scared me off. I think it would have been better for her if Tim had stayed and Ben had gone instead, but neither were really all that important for Tiff at this point. The biggest benefit to her was that Q continued to just blow up his presence on the beach to greater and greater size and she is very easily able to hide in there despite being a social, mental and physical threat. She is super well insulated within various alliances and has an idol to boot. At some point (potentially very soon) I do think Green and Orange will look at each other and say maybe we should weaken Purple and, theoretically, that could lead to Tiff being snuffed out as one of the biggest threats in the game, but it still seems more likely that Q and then Kenzie would each need to fall before she actually got votes. Oh, and she still has her idol just in case.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Six: Do I Get a +1?

We are officially merged! Sort of! Still not quite to the point in the game where everyone is vulnerable and everyone votes, but we are closing in on the playoffs of the Survivor season and so let’s figure out what the seeding is going to be …

13. Moriah (Green) - Down One

Poor Mo. I think this is the first vote out where I can’t really point to an obvious flaw in the players game. Turns out the Green tribe’s greatest strength, their good vibes and comradery, was their greatest undoing at the merge and Moriah could not fight her way out. That’s kinda what makes Survivor so crazy. It’s better to be a hot mess tribe like Orange rather than a cohesive unit like Green. At least for now.

12. Liz (Orange) - Up One

The good news for Liz is, now that Moriah is gone, she can fully own the mantle of white girl with glasses. In the end, there can only be one. This is also good news for my mother who no longer needs to worry about telling the difference between them. Now she just needs to figure out who exactly Tim is.

11. Venus (Orange) - Down One

Unfortunately, it does not seem like Venus is finding a lot of allies out on the beach. Even with the infusion of new blood to the camp, she hasn’t really built connections or trust and there’s not a lot of people that I can realistically see voting for her to win and, therefore, I don’t expect her to win. OK, cool, we got that out of the way. Next, I would like to say JUSTICE FOR VENUS. She can’t get any traction out there and people are sorta being real mean to her when she (seemingly) isn’t doing all that much more than trying to play Survivor. And, in my opinion, her idea to get out Charlie was the right idea! Why are we wasting time voting out Moriah – she can’t even jump. There are bigger fish to fry and only Venus can see the bigger picture. Why won’t people listen?

(But honestly when you are one of the six vulnerable people available to be voted out that was probably doing way too much out there and taking a big old risk and I respect it but that might have been a foolish move)

10. Tim (Green) - Up One

Tim dips into the top 10 for the first time! The Tim edit seems to finally be gaining some traction and he’s got some actual power out there between his Green tribe bonds and his bonds with the +1 alliance. That all seems good. However, I can’t get past the fact that he continues to tout Maria as his number one ally when she straight up said this episode that he was maybe her #3. Plus Q thinks he’s a little shaky from his delay in filling Maria in on the plan which puts him on thin ice with another part of his alliance. Unfortunately, I think he is much more expendable than he realizes at the moment and he may not even snag a jury spot if the split goes south next week.

9. Soda (Orange) - Down Three

I’ve been debating a Soda drop for a few weeks but couldn’t pull the trigger until now. I’m not loving how she’s positioned in the game right now. Kinda like Tim, she’s another player that I’m not sure realizes exactly how precarious their spot is. Her relationship with Venus is rocky and she actually will need Venus’s support if Tevin rallies his disciples to take her out like we saw a few weeks back. Honestly, I don’t think Soda hasn’t gotten a favorable edit to this point and I could see her story culminating with Venus dealing her a death blow and getting some revenge for the idol grabbing and the conversation stopping.

8. Q (Purple) - No Change

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I thought for sure Q was going to move down in my rankings this week and yet here we are. It’s interesting because I do think he has a lot of power right now and seems to be well insulated within a couple different alliances which are all good things, particularly for someone who is so physically imposing. That said, I think plenty of people are more than happy to let him expose himself out front as the leader and hide behind his impressive physique deeper into the merge. Q’s game to this point sort of reminds me of a Boston Rob or maybe a Tyson sort of strategy and that has definitely lead to big performances, but in the new era I’m really not sure it can work quite the same way.

7. Ben (Green) - No Change

Outlast: 1 pt

I need to see Ben do something if I am going to put stock in him winning the game. Right now, he’s been a social player which is obviously important, but I go back and forth about whether it is even strategic social or just Ben is a nice guy and he’s just trying to shred. I’m leaning the second and if I’m right, no offense, but I don’t really want him to win.

6. Kenzie (Purple) - Up Three

Outlast: 1 pt

Kenzie moves up three spots this week to her highest position since episode one. After nervously watching to see if Kenzie would make it through the mess at Purple, it was super encouraging to see her do what she does best – create social bonds. It seemed like she played things perfectly, not showing any of her merdragon side and simply being a cool person. We have not seen any lingering effects of the Bhanu bombs from a few episodes back and, if Kenzie can negotiate the split this week, she may jump up a few more spots and join the inner circle of title contenders.

5. Tevin (Orange) - No Change

Is Tevin getting a good edit? That’s the question that I’ve been pondering since my wife pointed out that he is not. I feel like he’s sort of the villain out there and, while villains have certainly won before, they are usually villains that you are at least sort of rooting for, aren’t they? On the positive side, I really like how Tevin is positioned in this game. He’s seemingly got a good core alliance in Orange (it’s seemingly just Venus who is ready to come for him) and he’s in good with the +1s as well. He’s clearly lined up Hunter to be his shield (and isn’t shy about pointing out how good he is at challenges) and he’s got Q as another potential blocker. He’s social and just about the right amount of cutthroat (as long as he doesn’t do any overplaying with the Soda situation). Very intrigued to see where his story goes next.

4. Charlie (Green) - Down Three

Outwit + 1

Outlast: 1 pt

Let’s start with the good. Charlie did one of my favorite strategic moves of the season this episode when he put a vote on Venus to protect himself just in case Mo’s shot in the dark hit. He definitely could have been vulnerable otherwise and he has a perfectly valid reason for putting a vote on Venus considering she was the one gunning hard to put the target on him. Of course, will Venus see that logic? I’m going to go ahead and say no given that no one in the history of Survivor has ever been cool with someone writing their name down (well, maybe not no one) and I sincerely doubt the always-chill Venus is going to be the one to break the trend. But I still like the move.

The top four for me its clearly its own tier at this point so I’m really splitting hairs when deciding what order to put them in. For Charlie, I didn’t love that a) his name came up (however briefly) because sometimes that is hard to shake and b) that the idea of voting out Charlie seemed almost laughable next to the threat that was Moriah. Are either of those really that big of deal? No, I don’t think so. But if he’s a little bit more likely to get voted out while a little bit less likely to have win equity with the jury then I guess he drops. Still would feel solid about my bet if I put money on him to win.

3. Maria (Green) - No Change

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I’m still trying to figure out exactly why Maria decided to vote the way she did last week, but ultimately it proved to 100% be the right move. She’s got options with Tim and the +1 alliance, she’s still in good with Ben and Charlie, and Mo ended up being an easy vote that, if she hadn’t played her cards right last week, may have been her instead. And I really liked her confessional talking about how she liked the idea of having options, like teaming with the +1s, but that she was not going to play someone else’s game. That’s a pretty consistent theme for her and seems like a winner’s theme. At this point, she hasn’t reclaimed her #1 spot because I’m a little concerned about the Green tribe getting picked off a bit by this new power alliance, but it’s not much of a concern. Again, splitting hairs here.

2. Hunter (Orange) - No Change

Outplay: 3 pt + 1

Well, it turns out Hunter can also do puzzles. We technically didn’t know he could do that too. I mean, we could have guessed certainly, but we didn’t know. He also officially picked up an idol this episode and he has his vote back with no consequences. He’s got a nice alliance for himself as well, seemingly working closely with power players like Tevin and Q and Tiff. And then also with Tim. The issue here is obvious: this guy is a massive threat and there is no way people won’t see that and vote him out. That definitely should be true. But so far the only person who has actually gone on record as identifying him as a threat is Venus who, while often right, seems to be just as often ignored (#justiceforvenus) so maybe Hunter can pull this off.

If you were betting how many individual immunities would Hunter win, what would you take? Let’s say I set the over/under at 2.5 – what would you take? If you think over, then he’s got at least four times he’s safe counting the idol. I have to imagine the dude can make fire, so you won’t be able to get rid of him at final four either, so that’s another time you could argue he’d be safe. Assuming he survives next week’s episode (not guaranteed of course), then he’s got 7 vote outs left and if he’s automatically safe for 4-5 of them, he just has to sneak his way through a couple tight spots and boom. One million dollars.

Of course, it is just as likely that as soon as the guy is available to vote out they just do it because obviously. That’s the argument for the under on immunity wins and it’s why I would take the under. But the other path is scary enough that he gets this spot.

1. Tiffany (Purple) - Up Three

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

Heading into this episode, I was interested to see if Tiff’s seemingly strong pre-merge edit was a product of the hand she was dealt at Purple (poor players that could be picked off and a lot of face time for the perennial losers while she did it) or if she a legit threat to win this thing. I think this week proved she is for real. It seemed to me that she had the perfect amount of power on the beach. She clearly has people out in front (most importantly Q and Kenzie), but she has subtle influence and strong instant connections with some of the new folks. She could win a few challenges herself and she’s got Idolicia for when things get sticky. I also love that she said in confessional that she was planning to use the idol for her alliance, not just her, which means that she won’t be afraid to make a big move if needed. At this stage, she’s my pick and this is probably the best I’ve felt about a #1 ranking so far.