13. Moriah (Green) - Down One
Poor
Mo. I think this is the first vote out where I can’t really point to an obvious
flaw in the players game. Turns out the Green tribe’s greatest strength, their
good vibes and comradery, was their greatest undoing at the merge and Moriah
could not fight her way out. That’s kinda what makes Survivor so crazy. It’s
better to be a hot mess tribe like Orange rather than a cohesive unit like
Green. At least for now.
12. Liz (Orange) - Up One
The
good news for Liz is, now that Moriah is gone, she can fully own the mantle of white
girl with glasses. In the end, there can only be one. This is also good news
for my mother who no longer needs to worry about telling the difference between
them. Now she just needs to figure out who exactly Tim is.
11. Venus (Orange) - Down One
Unfortunately,
it does not seem like Venus is finding a lot of allies out on the beach. Even
with the infusion of new blood to the camp, she hasn’t really built connections
or trust and there’s not a lot of people that I can realistically see voting
for her to win and, therefore, I don’t expect her to win. OK, cool, we got that
out of the way. Next, I would like to say JUSTICE FOR VENUS. She can’t get any
traction out there and people are sorta being real mean to her when she
(seemingly) isn’t doing all that much more than trying to play Survivor. And,
in my opinion, her idea to get out Charlie was the right idea! Why are we wasting
time voting out Moriah – she can’t even jump. There are bigger fish to fry and
only Venus can see the bigger picture. Why won’t people listen?
(But honestly when you are one of the six vulnerable people available to be voted out that was probably doing way too much out there and taking a big old risk and I respect it but that might have been a foolish move)
10. Tim (Green) - Up One
Tim
dips into the top 10 for the first time! The Tim edit seems to finally be
gaining some traction and he’s got some actual power out there between his Green
tribe bonds and his bonds with the +1 alliance. That all seems good. However, I
can’t get past the fact that he continues to tout Maria as his number one ally
when she straight up said this episode that he was maybe her #3. Plus Q thinks
he’s a little shaky from his delay in filling Maria in on the plan which puts
him on thin ice with another part of his alliance. Unfortunately, I think he is
much more expendable than he realizes at the moment and he may not even snag a
jury spot if the split goes south next week.
9. Soda (Orange) - Down Three
I’ve
been debating a Soda drop for a few weeks but couldn’t pull the trigger until
now. I’m not loving how she’s positioned in the game right now. Kinda like Tim,
she’s another player that I’m not sure realizes exactly how precarious their
spot is. Her relationship with Venus is rocky and she actually will need Venus’s
support if Tevin rallies his disciples to take her out like we saw a few weeks
back. Honestly, I don’t think Soda hasn’t gotten a favorable edit to this point
and I could see her story culminating with Venus dealing her a death blow and
getting some revenge for the idol grabbing and the conversation stopping.
8. Q (Purple) - No Change
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
I thought for sure Q was going to move down in my rankings this week and yet here we are. It’s interesting because I do think he has a lot of power right now and seems to be well insulated within a couple different alliances which are all good things, particularly for someone who is so physically imposing. That said, I think plenty of people are more than happy to let him expose himself out front as the leader and hide behind his impressive physique deeper into the merge. Q’s game to this point sort of reminds me of a Boston Rob or maybe a Tyson sort of strategy and that has definitely lead to big performances, but in the new era I’m really not sure it can work quite the same way.
7. Ben (Green) - No Change
Outlast:
1 pt
I
need to see Ben do something if I am going to put stock in him winning the
game. Right now, he’s been a social player which is obviously important, but I
go back and forth about whether it is even strategic social or just Ben is a
nice guy and he’s just trying to shred. I’m leaning the second and if I’m right,
no offense, but I don’t really want him to win.
6. Kenzie (Purple) - Up Three
Outlast:
1 pt
Kenzie
moves up three spots this week to her highest position since episode one. After
nervously watching to see if Kenzie would make it through the mess at Purple,
it was super encouraging to see her do what she does best – create social
bonds. It seemed like she played things perfectly, not showing any of her
merdragon side and simply being a cool person. We have not seen any lingering
effects of the Bhanu bombs from a few episodes back and, if Kenzie can
negotiate the split this week, she may jump up a few more spots and join the inner
circle of title contenders.
5. Tevin (Orange) - No Change
Is
Tevin getting a good edit? That’s the question that I’ve been pondering since
my wife pointed out that he is not. I feel like he’s sort of the villain out
there and, while villains have certainly won before, they are usually villains
that you are at least sort of rooting for, aren’t they? On the positive side, I
really like how Tevin is positioned in this game. He’s seemingly got a good core
alliance in Orange (it’s seemingly just Venus who is ready to come for him) and
he’s in good with the +1s as well. He’s clearly lined up Hunter to be his
shield (and isn’t shy about pointing out how good he is at challenges) and he’s
got Q as another potential blocker. He’s social and just about the right amount
of cutthroat (as long as he doesn’t do any overplaying with the Soda
situation). Very intrigued to see where his story goes next.
4. Charlie (Green) - Down Three
Outwit
+ 1
Outlast:
1 pt
Let’s
start with the good. Charlie did one of my favorite strategic moves of the season
this episode when he put a vote on Venus to protect himself just in case Mo’s
shot in the dark hit. He definitely could have been vulnerable otherwise and he
has a perfectly valid reason for putting a vote on Venus considering she was the
one gunning hard to put the target on him. Of course, will Venus see that
logic? I’m going to go ahead and say no given that no one in the history of Survivor
has ever been cool with someone writing their name down (well, maybe not no
one) and I sincerely doubt the always-chill Venus is going to be the
one to break the trend. But I still like the move.
The top four for me its clearly its own tier at this point so I’m really splitting hairs when deciding what order to put them in. For Charlie, I didn’t love that a) his name came up (however briefly) because sometimes that is hard to shake and b) that the idea of voting out Charlie seemed almost laughable next to the threat that was Moriah. Are either of those really that big of deal? No, I don’t think so. But if he’s a little bit more likely to get voted out while a little bit less likely to have win equity with the jury then I guess he drops. Still would feel solid about my bet if I put money on him to win.
3. Maria (Green) - No Change
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
I’m
still trying to figure out exactly why Maria decided to vote the way she did
last week, but ultimately it proved to 100% be the right move. She’s got
options with Tim and the +1 alliance, she’s still in good with Ben and Charlie,
and Mo ended up being an easy vote that, if she hadn’t played her cards right
last week, may have been her instead. And I really liked her confessional talking
about how she liked the idea of having options, like teaming with the +1s, but
that she was not going to play someone else’s game. That’s a pretty consistent theme
for her and seems like a winner’s theme. At this point, she hasn’t reclaimed
her #1 spot because I’m a little concerned about the Green tribe getting picked
off a bit by this new power alliance, but it’s not much of a concern. Again,
splitting hairs here.
2. Hunter (Orange) - No Change
Outplay:
3 pt + 1
Well,
it turns out Hunter can also do puzzles. We technically didn’t know he could do
that too. I mean, we could have guessed certainly, but we didn’t know. He
also officially picked up an idol this episode and he has his vote back with no
consequences. He’s got a nice alliance for himself as well, seemingly working
closely with power players like Tevin and Q and Tiff. And then also with Tim. The
issue here is obvious: this guy is a massive threat and there is no way people
won’t see that and vote him out. That definitely should be true. But so
far the only person who has actually gone on record as identifying him as a
threat is Venus who, while often right, seems to be just as often ignored
(#justiceforvenus) so maybe Hunter can pull this off.
If you were betting how many individual immunities would Hunter win, what would you take? Let’s say I set the over/under at 2.5 – what would you take? If you think over, then he’s got at least four times he’s safe counting the idol. I have to imagine the dude can make fire, so you won’t be able to get rid of him at final four either, so that’s another time you could argue he’d be safe. Assuming he survives next week’s episode (not guaranteed of course), then he’s got 7 vote outs left and if he’s automatically safe for 4-5 of them, he just has to sneak his way through a couple tight spots and boom. One million dollars.
Of course, it is just as likely that as soon as the guy is available to vote out they just do it because obviously. That’s the argument for the under on immunity wins and it’s why I would take the under. But the other path is scary enough that he gets this spot.
1. Tiffany (Purple) - Up Three
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
Heading
into this episode, I was interested to see if Tiff’s seemingly strong pre-merge
edit was a product of the hand she was dealt at Purple (poor players that could
be picked off and a lot of face time for the perennial losers while she did it)
or if she a legit threat to win this thing. I think this week proved she is for
real. It seemed to me that she had the perfect amount of power on the beach.
She clearly has people out in front (most importantly Q and Kenzie), but she
has subtle influence and strong instant connections with some of the new folks.
She could win a few challenges herself and she’s got Idolicia for when things
get sticky. I also love that she said in confessional that she was planning to
use the idol for her alliance, not just her, which means that she won’t be
afraid to make a big move if needed. At this stage, she’s my pick and this is
probably the best I’ve felt about a #1 ranking so far.
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