From the wackiness of Q, to an incredible split-vote blindside – what a two episode stretch! The logistics of this vote were really quite awesome. They managed to leave both Liz and Q out of the vote while still executing a perfect split that ensured if Hunter didn’t play his idol, he’d be going home. They accomplished exactly what they needed to, left the bottom dwellers at the bottom and made the threats feel comfortable while they line up to go after one another in the pivotal 8 and 7 votes. Things are getting spicy.
9.
Hunter (Orange) – Down Three
Outplay:
4 pt
Play
your idol! Play your idol!! PLAY YOUR IDOL!!! Dang man, these players crossed
up this kid good. When you establish yourself as a challenge beast, your road
to the end becomes very difficult very quickly and it isn’t helped much when your
#1 ally gets voted out, leaving you on the bottom. To me at home it felt like a
no brainer to play that thing, but that is why I type out thoughts on a
computer rather than getting spun around in a metaphorical washing machine by
the cunning cold-blooded killers like Kenzie and Charlie. I’m getting motion
sickness just thinking about it.
People
are getting really good at blindsiding people with idols in their pocket. I
think there needs to be a reset from the players on Survivor about needing to
play your idol at the perfect time for it to be seen as a big move and help
your resume to just playing it whenever you get the slightest bit uncomfortable.
You just aren’t going to sniff it out of people and you can’t trust your #1
allies to tell you anymore because people turn on their #1 allies all the time.
If you’re wrong, fine, but at least you’re still in the game. Heck, maybe it would
actually lower your threat level to play it wrong and help shift the target off
of you.
But,
hey, even if he did play it, he was probably going to be the target every vote they
could get him from here to the end, so maybe it didn’t matter much either way. I
guess we’ll never know.
8.
Q (Purple) – Up One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
I
think this episode proved very clearly that no one respects Q’s gameplay and
that he isn’t going to get votes at the end because who would want to reward
such behavior? Ironically, Q’s antics last tribal probably prolonged his
lifespan in this game as a) he lowered his threat level (too much, but hey, he
did it), b) he stole a move from Liz (but I mean, it’s Liz so like was that
really necessary) and c) people are so distracted by what he happened that he
is a great decoy vote for people to use as they blindside the actual threats (as
long as an idol play doesn’t ricochet onto him). Like I said, I don’t think he
has any real case to make at the end, but in the bizzarro world of a
Venus-Liz-Q final 3, I guess conceivably he can win this thing.
7.
Liz (Orange) – No Change
Outwit:
1 pt
Discussed
this with two-thirds of the people reading this already, but I feel like Liz
should have been happy that Q stole her thunder and allowed her to hide after
making a real big move to take out Tevin, but she was pretty upset about it. Sure,
some of that is her cockiness, sure some of that is severe 72 hours of hunger,
but I think a lot of it stems from the fact that Liz can feel her chances in
this game slipping away very quickly. She has very few opportunities left to garner
respect and take control and she just got left out of the vote this week – only
her Q and Hunter didn’t know what was up. No one is rushing to get out Liz, but
the door that I saw squeak open last week seems to have closed. And, oh by the
way, that hunger is only going to get worse from here.
6.
Venus (Orange) – Up Two
I
keeping trying to find ways to contort myself into giving Venus a point for
something. She’s the only one left in the rankings without any points after Liz
got her first point last week. To be fair, Venus is on a hot streak as Soda,
Tevin and Hunter were all people she wanted to seek revenge on and successfully
voted out. And all three of those people have written her name down – everyone who
has written down Venus has gone home (besides Charlie). That should make her a
savvy strategist and threat to win the game. The problem seems to be that Venus
knows that she has been successful lately and more self confidence is probably
not what the doctor ordered for Venus right now. But hey, I can see a world
where she beats Liz and Q at the end and so here she is.
5.
Tiffany (Purple) – Down One
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
The
drop continues for Tiff this week. After coming dangerously close to being
blindsided last week, she has another brush with disaster this week and both of
her #1 allies have turned against her. She has no real protection and no real
shield either. And I know you saw how jacked her arms looked at that challenge.
Kenzie
wants to vote her out as a move. Maria wants to vote her out as a move. Nobody
will want to go to the end with her. Now if she gets there, she will have the
best of anybody for the $1 million, but, regrettably, that is starting to feel
like a real longshot at this stage. And she must sense it because she lost her cool
a couple times with Q in some near costly ways. Hopefully she won’t be afraid
to play her idol next week.
4.
Ben (Green) – Up One
Outlast:
2 pt
Yo,
we low key got a fiery Ben this week. He was not happy with Q and unironically
angry about it, both to confessional and just out in the open. I liked it
honestly because this happy go lucky attitude has not been my personal cup of
tea, this feels a lot more authentic. Does it actually help his game? Eh,
probably not. It probably hurts it as the hunger is likely taking its toll out
there. The good news for Ben is that I think he has earned a new #1 in Kenzie.
The reason Kenzie feels like she can turn on Tiff is because she has Ben. He’s
actually very well positioned right now – not a huge threat, but well insulated
within a few different alliances and very likable. I don’t think he can beat
any of the big 4 at the end, but if he seems like he’ll at least have a say in
the end game.
3.
Kenzie (Purple) – Down One
Outlast:
2 pt
I
did not like this episode for Kenzie. She left herself very exposed with this
Tiff thing and I hate turning on your #1 ally this early in the game. Charlie
and Maria have that to use against her if/when the time is right and, at this
point, I’d be pretty stunned if they don’t use it. The only hope here is that
Maria seems to really want to get Tiff out and, if they want to blindside her,
they are going to need to keep her feeling good and telling Tiff that Kenzie is
going after her would be the opposite of that.
If
I am taking a step back here, you can see some logic for Kenzie’s move. She is
a great social player and she has positioned herself well, making a deep connection
with Ben, seemingly having some connection with Venus and having at the very
least a working relationship with the power couple of Charlie and Maria (even
Hunter was calling her his #1 this episode?). Cutting Tiff could lessen her
threat level in some ways as she wouldn’t be a part of a duo, but it is also a
move for her that she can point to at the end. The later the game goes, the
less likely it is that she can blindside Tiff and if she doesn’t get Tiff out
of the game and she feels (correctly?) that she can’t beat her at the end, then
she doesn’t win. That’s not ideal. You want to win, I’m almost positive.
Personally,
it feels like she’s a little too exposed at this point and she will, best case,
be making a fire at the final three with a chance to take the $1 mil if she is
fast enough. Worst case, things get out about what she tried to pull and she
goes down next week.
2.
Maria (Green) – Up One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
At
this point, it would be very difficult to argue that Charlie and Maria aren’t
running this thing. They seem to be at the center of every vote, they have a
good relationship with everyone and they not really on the radar. It’s
interesting because, to me, it feels like Charlie is the guy pulling the strings,
but to others that I have talked to/listened to on podcasts, they feel like it
is Maria’s show and Charlie is along for the ride. If that is the prevailing
sentiment on the island, then Maria is set up very well for a victory. My
interpretation of how the people on the island feel at this exact moment is
that Charlie is a nice guy and more likable but Maria is the serious game
player and so, right now, she would probably get the votes at the end.
However, there’s still time for that to flip (or for Maria to catch the bullet
meant for Charlie).
I
think the very interesting domino will be what happens with Tiff. Maria really
wants to get Tiff out, but I don’t know if Charlie shares that opinion. I think
Charlie and Tiff have a low-key strong relationship out on the island and they
really trust each other. If Maria manages to get Tiff out and puts that blindside
in her cap, it not only is a point in her column, but also a chip at Charlie’s
armor.
1.
Charlie (Green) – No Change
Outwit:
2 pt
Outplay:
+ 1
Outlast:
3 pt
Let’s
do it. Let’s give Charlie another point. Since I don’t know who deserves credit
for the vote split, nor do I know who to give the credit to for manipulating
Hunter into not playing his idol (could argue Kenzie, Hunter’s #1, could argue
Charlie, Mr. Cool, or you could even argue Venus who was the one on the inside
that got the information to the big alliance about Hunter’s idol – did I just
talk myself into a point for Venus? Eh, too late now, I’ve already moved on to
the last paragraph, there is no way for me to change it now), I guess that
means Charlie gets the only point of the night.
I
sung Charlie’s praises last week so I’ll try not to get carried away here, but it
was huge of him to win that immunity that opened the door for them to take out
Hunter. Plus he got a confessional talking about how much he hates throwing
challenges. Both of those point to an Outplay point for sure. He’s now got all
three aspects of the resume filled in, it’s just a matter of if he can continue
to navigate his way to the finish and then present his case to the jury (as the
law student he is).
I
still can’t get over how the other players said “aww” when he won the necklace
this episode. They literally “awwwed”. I think that’s almost the perfect place
to be. Everyone likes you and thinks you are sweet, but no one is awwwing somebody
they think is a huge threat. He’s really set up to get to the end and, as a
viewer at home, I think he has an excellent case to win once he gets there. But,
much like I said in the Hunter section, what I am typing at home is worthless
garbage. Or something like that.
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