Things are starting to heat up as we narrow the field down to just 10 and (hopefully) get to start playing some authentic merge Survivor next week. Here’s how I see the landscape right now – it’s sort of a two tier system with five contenders and five hopefuls (three of which I can’t say I have high hopes for). This is what I’ve got for ya …
12. Tim (Green) – Down Two
Tim,
we hardly knew ya. Right when you were making your way up the charts and becoming
something of a recognizable character, you were cut down one spot short of the
jury. Ultimately, it seems that Tim was not willing to cut ties with the Green
tribe and take advantage of the +1 alliance opportunity and his failure to
commit left him without any partners in the end. But, hey, the man is still a
game changer when it comes to wearing his buff.
11.
Soda (Orange) – Down Two
They’ve
been foreshadowing the downfall of Soda for a little bit now and while I hoped
she might be able to turn things around, she couldn’t diminish the heat all
around her. It was kind of an odd game for Soda. On the one hand, Venus wanted
to get her out because she was always being held at an arm’s length from any
real alliance talk (and grabbing the immunity idol until that was held at an
arm’s length for a little revenge). Meanwhile, Tevin – who seemed to be her #1
ally – decided to take her out at spot 11 because he saw her as a big social
threat? Very odd dichotomy there, but hey I guess that’s the game sometimes.
10.
Venus (Orange) – Up One
Although
Venus did technically move up one spot in the rankings this week, I don’t think
this was an encouraging round for the #JuisticeforVenus movement. This episode
really seemed to expose her as a tad socially inept and the edit sort of dunked
on her when Soda was giving her the credit for the blindside, even though we at
home all feel like it was Tevin (who voted for Venus? So who knows). While Venus
is has a decent chance at going far at this game, it’s only because no one
seems willing to give her a $1 million vote. She’s still not all that trustworthy
and she’s built no real bonds out there to start changing up the game and
making moves. It’s not going to be her season, but she may get the chance to
play again one day and team with Angelina or something.
9.
Q (Purple) – Down One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
It
pains me to say this, but I think Q may have had the worst night of anyone in
episode several. While he continues to accumulate more agency and influence
(which technically adds to his win equity), he is simultaneously making himself
into a bigger and bigger target. It’s so big at this point that both Tiffany
and Kenzie can hide comfortably behind him – and Hunter is trying to see if he
can fit too. Plus, he’s kinda making everyone angry in the process by bossing
them around and telling them what to do. He really is a Boston Rob kinda player
out there but without the mindless minions or the past successes. He’s
fascinating to watch, but I am now almost positive that his story is likely
more “final boss” than winner.
8.
Liz (Orange) – Up Four
From
the game’s biggest, loudest, most imposing target, to the game’s smallest and
least intimidating. On a night where there were only five people in her group
eligible to be voted out, Liz was the only person whose name did not come up
once. It was so not considered that Liz didn’t even need to bring her bag to
tribal council and everyone was very much OK with that. Liz has seemingly been
a confident (cocky?), rich son of a gun out there and that feels like it would
rub people the wrong way and not inspire them to vote for her in the end game –
but who the heck is using a vote to take out Liz at this point in the game? She’s
not some wildcard like Venus or some big physical or social threat either. She
can’t even jump. Wait, no, that was Moriah.
7.
Ben (Green) – No Change
Outlast:
1 pt + 1
I
have decided to give Ben another outlast point here because, somehow, he has
survived near certain death again. I think there were only two players out of
the six voting that had any incentive at all to vote Tim over Ben and those
were Kenzie and Ben himself, so that’s a big win for the both of them. Unlike
the other three people below him on this list, Ben at least seems to have
accrued some win equity. He is likable and sweet and the kind of guy you would
give $1 million to plus people have at least been acknowledging him as a social
threat which means they could spin a yarn to justify voting for him. That said,
I think the Green tribe is in a really precarious spot right now – especially Ben.
He’s going to need to keep that charm turned up to 11 right now if he’s going
to keep it (rocking and) rolling.
6.
Tevin (Orange) – Down One
I’ve
been having a hard time with Tevin as he is right on the cusp of being
considered a true contender. I like the guy, I think he has some social skills,
he wants to play hard and I think he could really get a crowd on his side at a
final tribal council. However, I am not sure I have actually liked his gameplay
so far. Despite clocking Venus as a threat who he knows is gunning for him, he
has not taken her out when he has had the chance. Instead, he took out Soda who
completely trusted him and, seemingly, could have been taken out later if
necessary (which, like, would it have been?). His number one alliance mate his
Hunter who I think he wants to use as a shield, but that is a shield with a
very sharp blade on it and he is to be careful when he is wielding it that he
doesn’t accidentally impale himself. Plus, he technically didn’t even vote the right
way this tribal (although I think it’s safe to say he was in on the plan) when
he voted for Venus instead of Soda – why did he do that? The pieces are there
with Tevin, but I’m not confident he is going to put them all together. One
wildcard: Tevin does still have his extra vote.
5.
Charlie (Green) – Down One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt + 1
This
is now two straight weeks that Charlie has been a prime and, dare I say, most
appealing, target to vote out and two straight weeks where he has completely
avoided any votes. That speaks to a strong social game and he gets an outlast point
for that for sure. While last episode kind of felt like they dismissed the idea
of going for him because he wasn’t a threat, this episode showed that people
felt he was sweet and trustworthy which is much more appealing of a narrative
for a potential winner. For me, this top five is still largely interchangeable until
we see how things shake out. I’ve liked his gameplay, but I don’t love how the chips
have fallen around him. He is only tangentially connected to the +1 alliance,
the Green tribe has been greatly diminished and there are a lot of threats that
he has to find a way to take out if he is going to win the game. If he’s at the
end with any of Hunter, Tiffany, Kenzie or Maria, do we think the jury would give
him enough votes to beat them as of right now? I don’t think so. But there is
still time to change that narrative.
4.
Maria (Green) – Down One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outplay
+1
Outlast:
1 pt
Maria
picked up the overall win in the immunity challenge today which was excellent
and she earned an outplay point for that. I think that is a nice chip to have
on the resume, especially as a “older woman” who doesn’t usually get a lot of
credit for the physical aspect of survivor in the eyes of the others. It’s
clear that she has the complete package (is now the only person with a point in
all three categories) and her edit has been pretty darn good. The one downside
is the positioning of the Green tribe. Could she get picked off at some point
soon or can she rally the troops to flip it? She’s still got her #1 in Charlie
and they are one of the tightest twos left on the beach, but with 10 people
left she needs a couple more names to get cleared out for that to be enough to
get them to the end game.
3.
Kenzie (Purple) – Up Three
Outlast:
1 pt + 1
This
was a huge night for Kenzie. Not only did she win individual immunity to
guarantee that she wasn’t going home, but she got to save Ben who has the potential
to be a real number for her in this game or maybe even a jury vote for her at
the end. Her social play has never been in doubt, but I was worried she would
have trouble containing her threat level. It seems like, at least so far, she
has managed to do that (although I kind of felt like Q was trying to throw her
under the bus as a huge threat at tribal). The tides also seem to be shifting to
her side with Tiff who now officially seems more connected to her than Q. Plus,
the +1 alliance beginning to crumble (an alliance she was not technically a
part of) opens up the game for her to factor into the end scenarios. She’s a
winner threat.
2.
Hunter (Orange) – No Change
Outplay:
4 pt
I
think Hunter did exactly what he needed to do in this episode. He survived the
vote without playing his idol and without upping his threat level with an
immunity win. For someone who has been as flashy as Hutner to this point, the
best thing that can happen to him is that he is forgotten about. He’s just
counting down the votes until he can’t be voted out anymore and is guaranteed a
spot at final tribal. Obviously, at some point he will need to do something to
pad his post merge resume, but I think that will come in due time. Not sure how
hiding in the tree fits into that plan, but I’m excited to find out.
1.
Tiffany (Purple) – No Change
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
Tiff
took over the top spot in the rankings last week based on her positioning at the
merge and nothing in this week’s episode scared me off. I think it would have
been better for her if Tim had stayed and Ben had gone instead, but neither
were really all that important for Tiff at this point. The biggest benefit to
her was that Q continued to just blow up his presence on the beach to greater
and greater size and she is very easily able to hide in there despite being a
social, mental and physical threat. She is super well insulated within various
alliances and has an idol to boot. At some point (potentially very soon) I do
think Green and Orange will look at each other and say maybe we should weaken
Purple and, theoretically, that could lead to Tiff being snuffed out as one of
the biggest threats in the game, but it still seems more likely that Q and then
Kenzie would each need to fall before she actually got votes. Oh, and she still
has her idol just in case.
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