The Running Diaries - Part I

Hi there friends,

So I wrote a book! I've been playing around with this fictional story idea for a while and, although I suppose it's still a work in progress, I finally got it to a point where I'm ready to share it with people and get some thoughts.

The story is about 130 pages long so it's a legit read. And yes, because it's me, there is a strong running component to it. The book centers around a set of high school runners (shocker) facing your classic high school problems: friends, family, struggles, success. There are three different story lines involved that cross paths at the books end which was a fun way to write things.

I'm obviously fascinated by running, but I'm more interested in story telling than anything else. I would say this a book about runners more than a book about running. There's running involved (you have to write about what you know), but the real drama revolves around the kids individual journeys to figure out who they are.

Hopefully these story lines are universal enough to be relatable for the non-hard core runners (99% of the population) that find me interesting enough to click the link and check it out.

If you do take time from your busy lives to give it a read, I'd appreciate any feedback (positive or negative; the negatives ones help me improve more, but the positive ones admittedly make me feel better about myself). You can shoot me an email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com with your thoughts.

So that's my speech. If I've convinced you to give The Running Diaries a shot, check out the link below. Oh, and let me know if you have trouble access it. 

Book link (PDF via Google Drive): https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-IjggIwhf7cHEagISv6CzoNXX9o3bSKD

Feel free to download the doc to your CPU for easy access.

Team Ninja Warrior Stat Attack

With the newest season of Team Ninja Warrior fast approaching, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at the past two seasons of the show to see which Ninjas had put together the best performances in the format’s brief history. This spring’s rebranded Ninja vs. Ninja may not have the exact same rules as what we saw in prior editions, but I’m assuming that basic skills required to be successful will be consistent.

Before we jump into the statistics, let me first refresh you on the basics of team related ninja competition. Competitors compete side by side to see who can finish a series of obstacles fastest. Unlike normal season competition or even USA vs. the World, the obstacles aren’t designed to be particularly grueling or challenging for the top talent. Instead, they try to incorporate the ninja basics like balance, strength and ingenuity into shorter, simpler challenges which will shift the mindset toward speed rather than endurance. However, like conventional competition, if you fall first, you’re out.  

For a look at how these theories work in practice check out this link to past episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OM_1NMxFP1xSMU8dclWuQ

Based on the Sasukepedia Team Ninja Warrior pages, I reviewed all the matches from the last two seasons and summarized the runs to see which Ninjas were most effective in this speed oriented format. Here is what I discovered¹:

Win Percentage

The first, most logical way to gauge success was to look at a Ninja’s Win Percentage. There are seven ninjas who have never lost a match in team competition (minimum two matches):

Michelle Warnky (8/8)

Meagan Martin (6/6)

James McGrath (6/6)

Karsten Williams (5/5)

Jesse Labreck (4/4)

Kacy Catanzaro (4/4)

Kristi Pratt (2/2)

Eight other ninjas have won at least 80% of their matches as Joe Moravsky (9/11) and JJ Woods (8/10) have the most total wins of these names.

Points Per Run

But a big wrinkle in Team Ninja Warrior is the “Anchor Run”. The competitor chosen to race last of those on their team can get two points instead of one if they win their match up. This same anchor runner is typically chosen in tie-breaker match ups. If we give these specific types of match ups, which are worth more to a team’s success, double value, we can estimate a Points Per Run.

A total of 15 ninjas average more than a point per run, meaning they are not only consistently winning, but also consistently defeating top notch opponents in clutch situations. Here’s a look at the top ninjas in points per run:

1. Karsten Williams 2.00 (perfect score)

2. Joe Moravsky 1.64

3. Travis Rosen 1.50

4. Drew Dreschel 1.43

5. Daniel Gil 1.38

T-6. Matt Wilder 1.33

T-6. Jamie Rah 1.33

T-6. Ian Dory 1.33

Adjusted Win Value

Another way to adjust a ninja’s wins for their competition is what I call Adjusted Win Value. This gives extra value to Ninjas who have consistently beaten other ninjas with a high winning percentage. For example, if you face someone who is a ninja legend like Jessie Graff or Joe Moravsky and come out victorious, you are rewarded for your efforts more than if you faced me out on the course. Note that these numbers are adjust for number of wins so as not to favor people with a higher number of races. When you rank using this system, here are your best competitors (minimum two wins):  

1. Brian Wilczewski 63.4%

2. Thomas Stillings 56.7%

T-3. Brian Arnold 54.6%

T-3. David Campbell 54.6%

T-5. Barclay Stockett 54.2%

T-5. Kristi Pratt 54.2%

7. Daniel Gil 53.2%

This means that Brian Wilcezwski defeated Ninjas that, on average, have a 63% win percentage.

Adjusted Strength of Schedule

One last thing I considered was an overall strength of schedule. This takes into account not just the ninjas that you beat, but also the ninjas that you didn’t. On a match to match basis, which Ninjas were facing the toughest competitors opposite them on the course?

T-1. Nathan Jasso 91.7%

T-1. Adam Grossman 91.7%

T-1. Rachel Mulvaney 91.7%

4. Melanie Hunt 84.4%

T-5. Mike Chick 82.9%

T-5. Geoff Lancaster 82.9%

That means that, on average, these ninjas were facing the best of the best competition which made it tough for them to pick up victories, even if they were on top of their game.

Final Rankings

I considered all these stats and a few others to come up with a final ninja rankings. Based on my own PER of sorts, here’s what I’ve got for your top Ninjas.

1. Karsten Williams 0.988
2. Michelle Warnky 0.940
3. Daniel Gil 0.936
4. James McGrath 0.935
5. Travis Rosen 0.928
6. Joe Moravsky 0.927
7. Drew Drechsel 0.924
8. Barclay Stockett 0.916
9. Ian Dory 0.910
10. Jamie Rahn 0.909
11. Ryan Stratis 0.904
12. Dan Polizzi 0.901
13. Jesse Labreck 0.897
14. Matt Wilder 0.83
15. Brian Arnold 0.892
16. Thomas Stillings 0.885

The rankings are set so that a “perfect” ninja would result in a 1.0 output and your average ninja comes out to 0.5. If you’d like to learn more about any of these stats or you catch an omission, feel free to reach out!

¹Note that, although carefully copied from the Sasukepedia page, there may be an error or two in here that throws off the final stats outlined above. My apologies in advance if anything like that happened. You can see the full results for yourself at these links: Team Ninja Warrior Season 2, Team Ninja Warrior Season 1

Also, note that these results do not count participants from Team Ninja’s College Madness series.

NFL Championship Picks

Jaguars @ Patriots (-7.5)

There’s been a surprising amount of drama around this game as Tom Brady’s hand has become a fascinating subplot. But Brady’s hand aside, I don’t see any reason to doubt the Patriots in this game. One of the biggest pro-Jags arguments I’ve heard has been Tom Coughlin, which I’m not sure I buy as a legitimate weapon in this game.

The secret about the Pats in recent weeks is that Dion Lewis is their biggest weapon. They can run the ball effectively and get the ball to the guy in space even with a slightly less effective Brady. Tom may take some hits and even throw a pick, but I think they can control the clock, utilize the running game and get the ball to Gronk. The offense will be fine.

As for the defense? I’m not overreacting to this Blake Bortles madness, but I’m also not going to bet on him to have success. Unlike the Steelers, the Pats haven’t had a ton of weird games this season where they almost blew it against inferior teams. They take care of business and they game plan effectively. I think the Pats should be able to contain the run like they did against the Titans and I just don’t see Bortles doing anything. It’s still Blake Bortles, right?

Pats win. Pats cover. On to the Super Bowl.

Vikings (-3) @ Eagles

I’m very tense about this game. Just like last week, I think we’ve got a decent shot. The Eagles are a similar team to the Vikings with respect to the fact that they have a solid run game, play great defense and have a quarterback that people are ready to bet against. It seems like another ugly game like the Raiders and Falcons is in store. Which means I will lose another year of my life watching on Sunday night.

I’m terrified of the Vikings receivers in this match up. Diggs and Thielen are great playmakers and make Keenum look good. We managed to contain Julio, but for whatever reason I feel like these guys after the catch ability is even more dangerous. That might just be a “we are playing the Vikings now and we weren’t before” type of feeling driving that statement, but all the same it’s how I feel. We avoided biting on the double moves last week, but I don’t think we’ve heard the last of that mistake.

Can the Eagles offense put up points? The running game was effective last week, but we weren’t scoring touchdowns. I’d like to see more from Alshon Jeffrey in this game. I was really excited to see them take a deep shot first play of the game (it’s exactly the call I wanted) and I hope that (weather permitting) they will try and push it a little bit at times. I don’t think we can just sit back and throw short passes all day again, but it worked last week so I’m not complaining.

Ultimately, I’m picking the Vikings here. Do I actually think they will win? I’m not sure. They definitely could win. But really, I’ve sucked with my picks this year and I have to use that reverse jinx magic to the best of my ability. 

A Harry Potter Running Post: Because That's Something I Would Probably Do

By Jarrett Felix

Imagine a world where magic is real. A secret society, hidden within the one we know and love. Now imagine those magical folk are assigned to run a cross country race. Which of them would be fastest? That’s the question on some many peoples’ minds when they read the Harry Potter books. And that’s the question I tackled below.

Let’s start with the houses. We all know there is a certain mental make-up that goes into being a runner. So let’s analyze what traits we know each wizard has in the various houses and try to match those up to a typical runner personality. That way we cut our work down by 75%.

Hufflepuff

As much as it sometimes seems like it, a Hufflepuff’s traits are actually not just “suck too much to be in another house”. They had Cedric Diggory for goodness sakes. A Hufflepuff should be loyal. They are hard-working and good friends. I feel like they seem to fit the runner’s mantra pretty well. Maybe not team captain (can you imagine Ernie McMillan as your XC team captain? No way), but definitely a key #5 runner on a good team.

Ravenclaw

Runners are smart. I mean, in a lot of ways we are stupid. But if you look at Ivy League programs or schools like Stanford, you see a lot of star runners that had good enough grades to get into the door. And you can say some of those kids got help, but I also don’t see all the best football players going to Princeton or Penn. They’re going to dang Durmstrang out there (no offense to Durmstrang, they have their talents I’m sure). Of course being intelligent doesn’t automatically make you a runner, nor does being a runner automatically make you intelligent. So, I’m confused did we figure anything out about Ravenclaws’ running abilities? Can somebody bring in Roger Davies to help us out here?

Gryffindor

Yes, runners have to be brave. But I feel like you don’t want to be too brave. Like I’m not sure you want Harry Potter style running in blindly, blatantly heading into a super obvious trap. That’s like the kid who “bravely” goes out in 60 for the mile before dying hard to a 5:12. You just know Harry Potter has the Prefontaine poster with the best pace is a suicide pace quote.

Slytherin

Contrary to popular belief, you don’t get into Slyterin because you are evil. Most of the evil people came from Slytherin, sure, but Pettigrew came from effing Gryffindor and he’s like the worst one of them all so let’s just all pause for a second and give the Snakes a chance. Now the Slytherins are ambitious, they are pretty cunning in their own right. I feel like they could be pretty skilled racers given the right set of circumstances.

So ultimately, which house is going to make the best runners? My opinion: it could be any of them. The house features alone aren’t enough to pin down the perfect runner qualities. So no, we did not cut our work down by 75%. We kept our work the same while also doing other work. I’m no Ravenclaw, but I think we might have just wasted some time.

***

I won’t bore you with a careful breakdown of all of the most referenced characters in Harry Potter’s unique running related qualities (spoiler alert: Argus Filch doesn’t do so hot), but instead I’ll just jump right to my top 7. You might be thinking, ah top 7 like cross country top 7. No. You’re wrong. Top 7 like the most powerful wizarding number 7. In the words of Percy Weasley, “Come on, keep up.”

If I’m drafting my team, I definitely want Cedric Diggory on the squad. He violates the age old rule of the best runner is usually never the best looking runner, but Cedric just seems like a hard-working, competitive athlete who isn’t afraid to get there and push himself to the limits. He is willing to die out there for his teammates. Sorry. Too soon.

This next pick may be a bit controversial, but give me Voldemort on the squad. Tom Riddle may not have the biggest heart in the world, but, horcruxes withstanding, he literally can’t die. So that should hopefully allow him to push through some barriers. Plus, the guy has suffered his sole being ripped from his body. He can probably handle a good solid 10x1000 meter workout. Like it or not Riddle is going to get out on the course and be a cold-blooded killer. And you need a couple cold blooded killers out there.

Now if we are putting together a squad, we need to have a Weasley. The Weasley family is made up mostly of ballers. Not Ron, he’s not quite baller level. But give me Ginny and Charlie for sure. Ginny is a fiery, competitive talent who is the right level of brave. As in she isn’t as stupid as Harry is. The only time I’ve really seen her back down is when it came to naming her kids. She also goes on to be a professional quidditch player so I mean yeah she’s good at sporty stuff. You can’t teach talent.

Charlie is another big talent in the Weasley family. He also works with Dragons. That’s the kind of crazy skill you would expect from an eccentric runner. And he’s got long hair. The way man buns are in style with runners these days that should be a plus.

OK, so I know you aren’t going to like this one, but here me out. I’m throwing Luna Lovegood in the top 7. As far as I see it, this could go a couple different ways. First, she could just zone out and give zero nargles about the race. Or should could just zone out and have one of those awesome runs where you turn your brain off and just race. It’s not like she’s a total space ball, she is a brave fighter who battles at the Ministry and at Hogwarts and survives both times. When she gets it going she can be a fighter, but sometimes you need to let yourself get out of your own head to have success racing. She’s a nice boom-bust kinda runner to have in the top 7.

Also making the squad was Blaise Zabini. Why Blaise you might ask? Part of is definitely the name. Ok, all of it is definitely the name. But let’s just remember Blaise works his way throughout the story/movies from no name dude in Slytherin house to important tag team member in the Malfoy vs. HP fights. So the guy knows how to move up the pack, earn his stripes and ride for his team. Is passing massive loads like Crabbe and Goyle on the totem pole really an achievement? Especially in a running related context? No. But am I going to pass up the opportunity to get a dude named Blaze on a team that runs? No, no, definitely not.

Que White Goodman voice. I almost forgot. Our last player. Her Nuclear Power Plants team won the Quidditch World Cup three years running. Which makes her the deadliest woman on earth. With a quidditch broom.

For my final pick, I’m taking Madam Hooch. Do we know much about Madam Hooch? No. Did J.K. Rowling have a rich backstory in mind for this minor character? Somewhere between possibly and probably. Did I have my own rich backstory for this character? Well, now I do. I kinda imagine she was a really good player in her hey day and now she is just one of those tough ladies who doesn’t take any crap from anyone and secretly could beat you down if you tried to talk back. You know she is still waking up early before quidditch lessons just to bang out some reps in the gym and fly a couple laps around the grounds. She stays light on the firewhiskey and keeps her mind on fitness at all times. Seems like a great runner to have in the fold.

There you go. That’s the squad. Coach is Hermione Granger and team photographer Colin Creevey (RIP). Owls fly around instead of the lead cart. It’s worth noting that Owls are super smart! I wish we normal humans could help control Owls the way wizards do! Think of how much easier life would be.

Running analysis at its best y’all.

NFL Divisional Picks

Atlanta (-3) @ Eagles

I do think that the Birds have a legit shot at beating the other Birds at home in an ugly game. The defense is really good and proved a year ago they can hang with this offense. We could get pressure, keep the game ugly and get a win behind our home crowd. The Eagles are certainly due for a playoff win. 

I like the “nobody believes in us” angle, but I’ve also heard basically everybody talk about how nobody believes in us and that could be a mistake so is it really an angle at this point?

Ultimately, I just have a hard time believing a battle tested, experienced team with a strong playoff quarterback is going to be toppled by Nick Foles. I’m sorry, Nick, I’m just not a believer. Plus, our secondary has been exploited the last few weeks. I’m terrified of Julio.

I think it’s a coin flip personally. So I’ll try and help out the Eagles with a reverse jinx and pick the Falcons to sneak out a cover.

Titans @ Patriots (-13.5)

The Titans are not good. I don’t think I’m being hyper critical. It’s been pretty clear all season. They beat Andy and Kansas City (which I completely whiffed on), but this is Bill and Brady. This is a whole other level. I think the Pats will shut down leading Titans receiver Marcus Mariota, score a ton of points and roll. They can’t possibly make this line high enough. I remember Kelce dominating that Chiefs game and am just picturing Gronk in his place this weekend.

Jaguars @ Steelers (-7)

At first, I went back and forth on this line. I was worried about the Jags potential to cover. It wasn’t that long ago that Timmy Tebow went against Pittsburgh and pulled off the upset-Bortles can be Tebow, right?

No, I really don’t think so. Also, can we give Tebow some love? I was a big Tebow guy. Like I didn’t think he was good, but at least the guy was a gamer who won and was respected. Literally every defensive player in the league hates Blake. He compared himself to Lebron, but honestly I’d feel more confident with Lebron at QB this weekend.

Saints (+5) @ Vikings

My one upset pick of the week. I was lower on the Saints than most last week I would say, mostly because I doubted Drew Brees. Whoops. I think Carolina’s defense was pretty solid and, even if they aren’t Vikings level, I just don’t see how you are gonna be able to contain all those New Orleans weapons.

And I apologize, but I’m not on the Keenum bandwagon just yet. I’d rather see him in the NFC Championship if we somehow get there. By a lot. I may be underestimating the guy, but I need him to prove me wrong like Drew did last week.

The Vikings are playing with a back up QB and a back up RB with receivers who are real good but not household names for the average fan. It just feels like that offense shouldn’t be good enough. Of course defense wins championships and they’ve got the best one in the league (sorry Philly).

Minnesota may win this one, but I get 5 extra points the Saints direction if I go with them, so to me this isn’t that difficult.

My New Favorite Sport

It’s almost 2018 which means the Winter Olympics are on the horizon and, unlike year’s past, I think I might actually try and watch some. Look, to me the Summer Olympics are the glory Olympics and it’s not just because of track (although I’d be lying if I didn’t say that played a role).

The problem is I just don’t get the winter sports. Growing up, when it got to be summer time, I was hype to go outside and run around and play games. When it gets to be winter, I’m just kinda … you know … waiting for winter to be over. Not that there isn’t fun stuff to do outdoors in the winter. I like snowball fights. Honestly, one of my biggest regrets in life is not having more authentic, war style snowball fights in my youth. Building snowmen, while perhaps a tad overrated, can still be an entertaining past time. Personally, I was always a fan of simply trying to roll a ball of snow to the biggest possible size. However, despite an undeniable demand for giant snowball rolling, it’s not an Olympic event (fingers crossed it sneaks into the winter edition of world’s strongest man).

But just because I can’t watch an Elf style snowball fight, doesn’t mean I can’t throw myself into some new sport and still be entertained. I mean, I love America. They are still competing in the games (unless this Mueller-Russia thing really gets out of hand), so surely I can find something involving USA to get behind. I could pick something like Hockey, but that would be too logical (plus, you know, Canada) so instead I’ve found myself diving headfirst into Curling.

By now I feel like most people have at least encountered some form of curling in their life. Maybe they play that game where you slide the things across the table with a bunch of salt on it. Maybe they have a stereotypical grandmother who plays shuffleboard in Florida with Muriel and Ruth. Or, perhaps, they are Pete Fensen, 8-time national champion and the skip of the men’s rink that represented the United States at the 2006 Winter Olympics where they won the bronze medal (the first Olympic medal for the US in curling).

Just a reminder to give to Wikipedia. They do so much good.

For me, I discuss Curling strictly for the joke potential. I mean it seems like such an easy target. It looks like people sliding a circle down ice and then sweeping around it (because that’s what it is) and that seems like a silly game that I feel like people that live outside of Minnesota could find amusing to imagine playing. So this past week, when I watched some of the 2018 Curling Olympic Trials Round Robin action, it was intended to just be a brief session to gather material for the next time I’d like to try and be funny around people I don’t really know. I even recorded a video of me enthusiastically watching it.

But here’s the thing, two hours later, I wouldn’t have had to fake the enthusiasm. I actually got really into the game. Like authentically. I know it can sometimes be tricky to portray sarcasm in print, but this is legitimate interest. It was quite compelling trying to learn about the rules, the scoring and the strategy. After watched some quality matches I would say I am not even close to an expert, but I would also say that I have found at least one niche sport that I can check in on during the Olympics and 1) pretend to be knowledgeable in front of people and 2) potentially enjoy myself.

The first of those two concepts is really the more important to me personally. Look, there’s lots of ways for me to enjoy myself, but looking smart, witty and cool in front of others is not one of my specialties (as you probably guessed since I’m trying to use Curling to look smart, witty and cool). So if you don’t mind, I’d like to practice explaining some Curling things I learned watching mixed doubles Curling on the Olympic channel and then you can tell me how smart, witty and cool I sound. This way I’ll know.

Fact #1: The big thing that you glide across the ice-that is called a rock. Each round is called an End and the team that goes last in each round has the “hammer”. There are 8 ends in a game.

Fact #2: There’s a certain formation that starts the rounds with one rock at the front and another kinda near the middle circle thingy (we’ll get to that). However, there’s also a power play where that is not the starting formation and they move those rocks aside. Which helps you. But I’m not sure why.

Fact #3: You win by scoring the most points. That’s no surprise. But how do you score points? This is where Curling ends up making a name for itself. It’s kind of like Bocci in that you want to have your rocks as close to the middle as possible. It’s all based on how your rocks are close in comparison to your opponent’s. For example, say I am playing against this game named Greg. One of my rocks is closest to the center of the target out of all rocks, but one of his is next closest. So I would get one point. However, if I have the three closest rocks, I would get three points.

There’s no situation where Greg gets points. I’m the best Curler since Pete Fensen and Greg sucks.

Fact #4: Curling involves careful thought to set up your rocks and what not, but there’s a limit to how long you can think for and that timer counts down over the course of each end. I never saw anyone run out of think time so I don’t actually know what happens when you run out. I’m guessing it’s bad though. I don’t if like that’s just it and you lose or you have to just wing the rocks down the ice as fast as possible. The second thing seems unlikely and perhaps dangerous.

Fact #5: You have two different shoes. One is slippery shoe and one is a not slippery shoe. They didn’t look like skates. I’m not sure if you have to have one of each of these type of shoes by rule or that’s the strategy. I don’t feel like it’s the strategy because people slip and wipe out and stuff so it’s gotta be like a wrinkle of the sport or something. Kind of like how in Basketball you aren’t allowed to use your feet. Maybe. Again, much like the one slippery shoe in Curling, I don’t feel like I’m on super solid ground right now.

Fact #6: Sweeping happens. But I have a lot of questions about it. Like sometimes, there’s a lot of sweeping. Like tag team sweeping with yelling and really hard scrubbing. Then other times there’s no sweeping at all. They just slide that bad boy across the ice and let the chips fall where they may. There’s also moments where the other team is sweeping when it seems like they should be sweeping at all because it’s not their turn to sweep. There’s different ways to sweep, some to slow it down, some to speed it up. It’s hard not to get swept up in all the sweeping.

Also, I’m not positive it’s called sweeping.

Fact #7: You better pay close attention at the end of the rounds. Half the time, the teams are coming in and cleaning up before I’ve even had time to figure out who is in what position. Plus, I didn’t see a single referee out there so I think it’s kind of like call your own points. You can’t do that with most sports. Like if they had pickup basketball where you call your own fouls at the Summer Olympics, I don’t feel like that would end well. Every knows you’re not supposed to call anything (that’s the code), but there’s always that one guy who is yelling foul after he misses a contested jumper and messing up the game. I guess Curling doesn’t have any Gregs (yes, I’m using the same name from the first example to describe the guy who calls fouls in pickup).

So those are your facts. I bet you feeling like a Curling expert now, right? OK, well you at least want to watch it when it comes on again? Fine, but maybe you-no, wait come back! I’m ready to talk about figure skating and hockey now!

NFL Wild Card Playoff Picks

I'm far from an expert and, honestly, I don't even watch that much football. But I wanted to get on the playoff enthusiasm and make some picks for the wild card weekend playoff results. I've bolded my picks against the spread given the lines listed on ESPN. Hopefully I don't go 0-4.

Titans @ Chiefs (-8.5)
I know that the Andy Reid jokes are already locked and loaded as we head into this game, but the guy is still a great coach. He blows some close games and he's lost more NFC Championship games than I care to admit, but he's also gotten to all those games. I don't believe in the Titans one bit and I think the Chiefs will take it to them. I'm rooting for Andy and, heck, I'm rooting for Alex Smith.

Falcons  @ Rams (-6)
This is one of the trickier games for me personally. I'm absolutely terrified of the Rams as an Eagles fan. I think we have a good run defense, but we couldn't even come close to stopping Todd Gurley when we faced him. The Falcons have a ton of upside and experience, but they have also been inconsistent and inefficient. Barring a huge Julio Jones day, I think this game should be a big win for the Rams. Their offense is scary and their defense knows how to bring pressure. I like the Wade Phillips coaching x-factor.

Bills (+8.5)  @ Jaguars
I think the Jags will probably win this game, but I'm not comfortable with an 8.5 point line. If McCoy is healthy enough to make plays, he's a huge x-factor, but I'm pretty nervous about that ankle. Still, I like Sean McDermott as a coach, I think Bortles could keep the game close and I don't expect either offense to be particularly explosive. Some are afraid of how much the Bills celebrated last week, but I'm not buying this as a let down performance. I think they rise to the occasion.

Panthers (+7)  @ Saints
Again, I think the Saints probably win. However, I think a division opponent is always tough. Beating one team three times will be hard for the Saints even if the Panthers have basically no receivers. I respect Cam and I actually am not a believer in Drew Brees. Maybe it's just my fantasy team woes with him, but I think he may be starting to crest over the hill. The running game likely still advances these guys, but I think the Panthers make it a game with pride on the line.