Due to some scheduling conflicts this week, I’m writing this almost a full week later than I usually do so my takes may not be quite as scorching hot as usual and my memory may not be quite as sharp either. But, hey, I have to manage my threat level out here.
7.
Venus (Orange) – Down Two
I
was concerned about Venus last week, but she ended up going up for a completely
different reason than I was expecting this week. She ended up finding the idol
and doing just barely too much with it (while simultaneously not doing enough
with it) and she ended up blindsided and relegated to the jury. Even now I
still can’t decide how I feel about Venus’s game. I consistently found myself
saying things like “she’s right” while also seeing her castmates seemingly rag
on her in every confessional. So was she a sneaky good player who just needed a
few moves to steal the votes at the end or did she never have a chance because
of a shaky social game? Not sure I will ever really know, but I do look forward
to watching her on the jury.
6.
Liz (Orange) – No Change
Outwit:
2 pt
Liz
has been interesting TV these past few weeks and certainly meme-worthy, but I
can’t imagine that she is our winner. It would be an all-time confusing victory
arc in my eyes. Rarely do you see the person sleeping in the shelter while
everyone is running around looking for idols go and win the thing. Although
this season, the best thing you can do is not have an idol in your pocket.
Those things are cursed.
5.
Ben (Green) – Down One
Outlast:
2 pt
I
dropped Ben here strictly because of the way the TV show is portraying him. On paper,
he is likable, he has been a part of the majority alliance and he’s basically always
been on the right side of the vote. He’s not a target and has some shields
ahead of him that put him in an excellent spot to at least get to the end if
not win this thing. However, the show has given him essentially no strategic
content and, quite frankly, he hasn’t gotten much content at all in these
critical episodes. If Ben wins the show, it feels like the editors did him
pretty dirty out there. Had to be other ways to spin his story.
In
terms of actual gameplay stuff that makes me concerned, my one pro for Ben was
his relationship with Kenzie. I thought that would be an under the radar
alliance that would help shape some of the end game with the two of them
potentially working together to make a big move, particularly as Kenzie was
gearing up for life without Tiff. But that didn’t materialize – in fact, Ben
put the split vote on Kenzie this week to protect Q from a potential Venus idol
play. She’s not going to be thrilled about that, essentially sinking the last
thing that I thought Ben had going for him.
4.
Q (Purple) – Up Three
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt + 1
I
know that I’ve spent weeks now explaining that Q cannot win because no one will
respect his game / want to reward his game at the end and I stand by that. I
don’t think Q can win. But here’s the thing: if it is a Liz, Ben and Q final
three (which I pray it is not), how can Q not be the winner? The show has
invested so much more into Q than either of the other two and, dare I say, he’s
the only one of the three who has really gone for it and played hard. I think
this jury wants a winner that actually played the game and at least a few of
them could put aside their feelings to ensure that their vote is consistent
with that belief. Probably not Tiff or Kenzie but maybe Soda, Tevin, Hunter and
Maria. One more would do it from there.
And
to be fair to Q, he has been the undisputed target for three straight tribals and
has not been voted out at any. In fact, he’s been a perfect smokescreen for his
alliance to help take out a power player (or Venus) on each occasion and blindside
someone with an idol. He gets another Outlast point for me just for the pure
wildness that is this stretch of gameplay.
Like
I said, he’s probably not going to win, but I think, at this point, he has the
best odds of the long shots.
3.
Kenzie (Purple) – No Change
Outlast:
2 pt
Kenzie
is an interesting spot. On the one hand, I feel like she has a lot of friends on
the jury, a great social game and a good edit on the show. If she gets to the
end, she has an interesting case for the million dollars and I would be at
least a little afraid to go up against her. Realistically, if the winner is not
Charlie or Maria, it’s gotta be Kenzie. However, I also think it’s super likely
that Kenzie goes home next. She’s clearly at the bottom and, because she is
still a threat, there’s not a lot of incentive to keep her around (honestly it
is a credit to her social game that she was only the secondary target and not
the primary this week). It kinda feels like she missed her window bailing on
the Tiff blindside and that will be her story. Would love to be wrong given that
she is my last hope for winning my Survivor fantasy league but I’m afraid this
will end like every other season – me losing my Survivor fantasy league.
2.
Charlie (Green) – Down One
Outwit:
2 pt
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
3 pt
Charlie
had held the top spot on my rankings for three straight weeks this week, but he
slips down one position on this occasion. Charlie is still getting a glowing
edit on the show and continues to get all the strategic story telling confessionals,
strong social clips and just has the appearance of a very capable game player. However,
I was not a fan of what he decided to do this episode. To me, it seemed like
the move was to take out Q and weaken Maria a bit. I think he could justify it
to Maria and still pull her back in the next week (where else is she going at
this point?) and they could choose to vote out Kenzie or Venus at six if they
felt that were the best move. The Q-Maria duo could end up his undoing in this
game if he’s not careful. Plus, the players on the season do not see him as a
mover and a shaker – they just see him as Maria’s “jester”. This doesn’t help
that image any and, if he only takes her out when he’s at the very end and has
to do it, is that really much of a move?
If
you are playing devil’s advocate, you can point out there are still multiple
votes left to get out Maria. I don’t think Charlie should have voted out Maria
this episode if she didn’t have immunity because then Charlie would open
himself up to go next, so he needs her around and probably needs her
comfortable enough that he can pull off a blindside. And, of course, making the
move to vote out Q would tie Charlie to Venus -
a person that they trusted so little that they went to Liz, mere moments
after she had a massive outburst at the reward challenge, to make their move
against Tiff. Venus with a secret advantage had to be even more scary to Charlie
and, realistically, he was never going to hitch himself to that wagon.
For
the most part, I like what Charlie is doing and it seems like the show likes
what he is doing as well. He feels like he has a really great read on this game
from a strategy perspective in all ways except … does anyone on the island now
that he is playing a great game? It kinda feels like they don’t. Those are the
people that ultimately pick the winner, not us, and that could be Charlie’s biggest
problem right now. I hope he is timing out his finishing kick just right and he’s
going to sprint into the lead at the last possible moment to steal this thing,
but my confidence slipped a little compared to last week.
1.
Maria (Green) – Up One
Outwit:
2 pt
Outplay:
1 pt + 1
Outlast:
1 pt
Maria
is back in the #1 spot for the first time since she started the season there in
four straight editions of the rankings. She had sort of faded into the
background for a stretch, but now she’s back in a big way. Last week she goes
ahead and leads the blindside against Tiffany, giving herself a massive end
game chip and this week she potentially saves herself from going home with a clutch
immunity win. Sure, she fumbled the bag when picking people to come with her on
the reward, but nobody is perfect.
She
may be the biggest threat left on the board, but she is also the only person
who can say, with confidence, as long as they make it to the end, they win. If
she is good at making a fire (any idea if she is?), she only has to survive two
more votes to be at final tribal. She could do that win another immunity win
(she has two already) or potentially even find the idol that will be coming back
into play after the Venus vote. This next vote, she would need two of Charlie,
Q and Ben to turn on her to be punted out of this game – it’s possible that none
of them will actually do it. Let’s see if she can push her luck all the way to
the finale!
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