This episode was very fun. And its even more fun because I have no idea what is going to happen next. Probably whoever finds the rehidden idol will immediately be blindsided.
8.
Tiffany (Purple) – Down Three
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
Another
episode, another person that goes home with an idol in their pocket. That’s the
third time it’s happened this season and, by the way, there’s still time for it
to happen one more time. I feel like we have reached the point now that it’s
clear you aren’t going to be able to “read” the other players in the game and
deduce when to play the thing and if your idol is public knowledge this early, it
incentivizes people even more to blindside you. Just a bummer because I really
enjoyed Tiff. She probably will be a fun juror though.
7.
Q (Purple) – Up One
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
At
this point, I’m pretty sure the jury would rather give the $1 million to Jelinsky
than give the money to Q. Not because they don’t want Q to have the money, but because
they would never ever want him to feel validated that his strategy actually led
to him winning. He’s a huge goat and he can probably ride that right into the
end game, especially now that Maria has taken him under her wing as a personal
extra vote.
Keeping
all this in mind, is there any point where Q starts to get credit for what he’s
doing? Maybe not in the eyes of the jury but perhaps in the eyes of the fans? He’s
actually been playing super low key these last two episodes while sucking up
all the attention of the people who are being blindsided. It would not have
been possible to blindside two people with idols without him playing this pretty
much perfectly. How much actual agency does he have? At this stage, very little
– but the more threats that go out the closer he is to that coveted Venus-Liz-Q
final three and then all bets are off.
6.
Liz (Orange) – Up One
Outwit:
1 pt + 1
I’m
giving Liz the Outwit point here for putting aside her hunger and her thirst
for vengeance to make what I think was a smart move and blindside Tiff. Liz
cannot beat many people in this game – you can argue she can’t beat anyone –
but she has to like her odds against Q. Why waste a vote on him when you get
out a real threat with an idol and challenge skills? However, I do not think
Liz’s temper tantrum helped her win equity very much. Do I blame her for being upset
that the one person who is not going to pick her to go on this reward won the
challenge and subsequently did not pick her to go on the reward? Especially
given that she is literally the world’s biggest Applebee’s fan? No, I do
not blame her. But I don’t think it was a good look – particularly the part how
she was mad at Q for blowing up her game. That part just seemed a little pouty
to me and sort of undermines the seriousness/strategicness of her gameplay. Now
that the show gifted her some rice, I am hoping she can get things under
control because she still has at least some shot to win this thing as long as
she can manage to be more likable than Q and Venus.
By
the way, not a great a sign that Liz was real bad at making the fire this episode.
Feels like that could have been foreshadowing for a loss in the firemaking
challenge at the final four.
5.
Venus (Orange) – Up One
I
went back and forth about this one for Venus. On the one hand, I still think
she’d be the favorite in a Q-Liz-Venus final three. I’d think she’d get Soda’s
vote. I think she’d get Hunter’s vote. I think she’d get Tiff’s vote. I don’t
think Liz would sweep the rest and I’m positive Q wouldn’t. So, she has that
going for her. On the other hand, the Hunter-Tiffany blindsides back-to-back
week combined with the continued goatification of Q has really thinned out the
number of threats that are actually left in this game. Given how savvy Charlie,
Maria and Kenzie have been so far, I am starting to think they may all look at
each other and say, “hey, should we maybe start getting rid of some of these
goats?” It has not once crossed their mind before so I wouldn’t say it’s
likely, but the power players are making a risky move if they continue to go
after each other and leave door open for the bottom dwellers to flip this on
its head.
And,
of course, Charlie and Maria went to Liz – who spent the entire last three days
groaning about how much she is mad at Q and not sorry about it – over Venus to
make the Tiffany blindside happen because they don’t trust Venus. They can at
least work with Q and Liz, but Venus is very expendable. Plus, she could start
to get aggressive/crazy with her gameplay after being on the wrong side of the
vote for the first time all season. Certainly feels more likely than her calmly
and quietly trying to reintegrate into the numbers.
4.
Ben (Green) – No Change
Outlast:
2 pt
Ben
is in a very weird spot. As you’ve probably noticed if you’ve been reading
along with my rankings, I do not buy the narrative that Ben can win this game.
I don’t really see his strategic chops and, although he is likable and a good
guy, I don’t think he has the serious, cutthroat, mastermind vibe that all of
these people obsessed with making big moves are going to turn around and give
the title to. I also find it very difficult to see a scenario where he is at
the end with Kenzie, Maria AND Charlie, seeing as those are his three biggest
allies. Can’t imagine Ben beats any of them.
But
obviously the jury would give it to him over Q, Venus and Liz so.
3.
Kenzie (Purple) – No Change
Outlast:
2 pt
It
is not often that a player benefits from being blindsided at tribal, but this
whole Tiffany situation may have worked out OK for Kenzie. Sure, she doesn’t
get the point for being the architect of the Tiff blindside, but she also doesn’t
get the target that comes with voting her out either. She gets to have
relatively little blood on her hands for this whole situation and there’s no
way the fact that she floated Tiffany’s name last week can blow up her spot
because Tiff is gone now. I’m pretty sure Tiff is a vote for Kenzie in the final
3 if she manages to get there. She’s definitely going to be vulnerable this
next week, but if she can wriggle free of the vote, I think she has a really
good chance at this thing. Hypothetically, if Maria or Charlie goes next week
instead of her, I think there’s a very good chance the other one goes the next
week (assuming no immunity wins or idol finds mess that up). A final 5 of
Kenzie, Ben, Q, Venus and Liz would be super ideal for her – Ben is her #1 and
I don’t think he would have the heart to backstab her and I have no faith that
Venus, Q and Liz are going to suddenly team up against them.
That’s
the ideal scenario for her, but how likely is that to happen really?
2.
Maria (Green) – No Change
Outwit:
1 pt + 1
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
To
me, this was Maria’s best episode of the season. I thought she was awesome in
the first episode, but I hadn’t been super impressed with her gameplay since
then. However, I really liked this episode for her. To me, she was clearly the
architect of the Tiff blindside. She wanted to vote out Tiff for a while and
she got her wish. She brought in Q. She brought in Liz. The way she pitched to
both of them was brilliant too. She played perfectly on both of their egos in a
way that honestly may help keep her threat level in check.
However,
the big question for me heading into the next episode is: will Charlie and Maria
both be able to survive? In theory, the other players will be able to deduce
that they are the biggest threats to win this thing and the only strong pair
remaining in the game and they will feel a need to break them up. And the real
wildcard – will they turn on each other? There have been no signs of that at
all and maybe in a season filled with people turning against their top allies
these two will go all the way to the end together, but maybe they are just the
last domino to fall. I think the final 7 is too early to turn on each other (as
mentioned, if one goes next week, I think the other is likely to follow
directly behind), but I could see a huge vote coming at the final 6. If Kenzie
goes this week, what other threat is left to distract the bottom dwellers with?
1.
Charlie (Green) – No Change
Outwit:
2 pt
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
3 pt
You
could certainly make the case that Charlie should be knocked off his perch this
episode. He was more of a follower than a leader in the Tiff blindside. He has
established himself as the biggest challenge threat remaining after a 2nd
and two 1sts in successive match-ups. And I think losing Tiff was
more costly for him than anyone else in the game because they had a good working
relationship, she was a physical shield and she is most likely to feel burned
by him than anyone else (besides Q of course).
But
this may all work out OK for Charlie. Maria’s big move may be enough to distract
people from the fact that he is a challenge beast and, if they take the shot at
their pair, it may be Maria that they choose to go for. To steal directly from
something a friend of mine said, Charlie is not seen as a leader and that probably
works in his favor. I’m obviously super bias since I’ve been rooting hard for
him since day one, but I just feel like he has a really good read on the game.
He seems to be riding that line between building a resume and not becoming a
threat. He has a good relationship with everyone but he is not such a bright,
shining light of charisma that he can’t fade into the background when it suits
him. And I love that he waited until his confessional to brag about all the
grip strength workouts he’s been doing rather than doing some crazy gymnastics
celebration in front of the rest of the cast Hunter-style. I am confident he is
a good player. He might be this season’s Carson or this season’s Jesse. Or
perhaps he could be the guy that finally slips through and wins it.
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