We’re back baby! Big episode this week where we finally had some fresh blood at tribal and the heat started to turn up on this game. Very intriguing merge coming up and, in anticipation of things shaking up, I’ve decided to make a move or two at the top of the rankings …
14. Jem (Green) – Down Seven
Look
I don’t think anyone is going to have a flame out quite the same way that
Jelinsky or Bhanu did on this show, but Jem’s last two episodes were not
exactly inspiring. I went on the record last week in saying that I didn’t love
her move re-hiding the Beware Advantage (and who knows if that actually hurt
her at all), but that turned out to be the beginning of a spiral of very hard,
machete-wielding game play and over the top lying that just didn’t manifest
itself in a trustworthy relationship with her teammates. All that said, I think
Jem is the first person who had real winner upside in this game to go home
(apologizes to Randen) so things are getting good.
13. Liz (Orange) – No Change
Although
Liz is doing a very good job keeping her paranoia and scramblingness under
wraps while everyone around her targets their key allies and chases idols, I
still don’t think we’ve seen enough of her deeper personality beyond
accomplished rich person to suggest that she is going to win this game. We also
haven’t seen anyone have a deep personal connection with her and that could
make her expendable in this early part of the merge (which will be earn the
merge and split tribal if history holds). If she survives that, my wife thinks
she has zero-vote finalist upside.
12. Moriah (Green) – Down Two
I’m
a big Mo fan so it pains me to have her plummet down the list, but,
unfortunately, her closest ally just got voted out and Mo was blindsided. She’s
a very expendable piece for Green at the merge and I’m not sure she will be
able to jump ship and join up with anyone else because, well, you know (also
she has some self-doubts about her social integration ability that she
expressed in episode one). I’m rooting for her, but I think she’s more likely
to go home in one of the next two episodes than survive.
11. Tim (Green) – Up Three
Tim!
Making moves! Big episode for Tim who got a few big wins to help him jump up
the list: A) The #1 person he wanted to go home went home. It’s not always that
simple. B) He seems like he may have found himself a physical threats alliance
with Hunter and Q that could be dangerous at the merge. C) He was actually
involved in the episode! He even got the episode name quote!
On the downside, however, I’m not sure I love Tim’s odds of actually winning the game as the least physical guy in the physical guys alliance (no offense Tim) and I still find it real odd that he is saying Maria is his #1 ally and they are tight while Maria is giving confessionals where she says that she doesn’t trust Tim (and Ben).
10. Venus (Orange) – Up Two
The
Venus experience was nicely encapsulated in her interaction with Hunter this
episode. She annoyed him by doing what was probably a smart strategic move and
following him around to try and look for the idol. Then when they had something
of a confrontation she said right to his face that she wouldn’t vote him out
because he is a shield for her which I found so interesting because on the one
hand is Hunter supposed to feel reassured by that? But on the other hand he
didn’t really trust her anyway so isn’t that the most reassuring she could
possibly be in that situation? In summary, Venus was annoying but probably in a
smart gameplay way and then not that trustworthy but in a smart gameplay way
and that is why I think she will be, in a someway, a non-winner in the end game
but in a smart gameplay way.
9. Kenzie (Purple) – Down One
Outlast:
1 pt
I
have been having a very difficult time ranking Kenzie these past few weeks and most
of my consternation is centering around the moment that is coming up next week.
Thanks to Bhanu, she has been announced as a massive threat to the other tribes
and she would be a no-brainer target at the merge. Even Q would probably be on
board with that plan (she may have been better off if Q had gotten voted out
this episode). However, it is worth noting that Bhanu, while winning lots of
hearts, was not exactly showing off a deep knowledge of how to win survivor out
on the island and I think, even in the few minutes they met him, Liz and Ben
could pick that up. So maybe Kenzie won’t be the #1 target that I am worried
she will be? I think we will find out very quickly.
8. Q (Purple) – Up Three
Outwit
+ 1
Outlast:
1 pt
I
cannot quit Q. Is it because he is one of 17 kids and Q is the 17th
letter of the alphabet and I find that incredibly awesome? It is not, I
actually literally just figured that out. But I do really appreciate Q’s social
and strategic gameplay this year (ironically his physical gameplay has actually
be kinda very bad). I actually am giving him an Outwit point this week for
coming up with the idea to organize this strong guys alliance and really commit
to it with deeper planning as opposed to just the generic “Hey, we are all big,
right? We should look out for each other, you know?” that never actually goes
anywhere. Could you argue that is more of an Outlast point for social ability
than an Outwit point for strategic play? Yes, but I haven’t given out a lot of
Outwit points yet so I had to get one in there somewhere.
7. Ben (Green) – Up Two
Outlast
+ 1
My
guy Ben gets an Outlast point this week because his vibes carried him through a
tribal council that I definitely thought was going to be his last. He generated
a real connection with Charlie and enough of a connection with Maria that she
was willing to side with the guys (although maybe that was Tim’s doing?) over
the gals. Now he is even being seen as a social threat? A social shield, even!
I mean, I guess that makes him a target, but it at least gives him some win
equity that I had not seen before. Welcome to varsity, Ben.
6. Soda (Orange) – No Change
5.
Tevin (Orange) – No Change
Nothing
new to say about these two this week. Hopefully they can work together at the
merge, because if Tevin turns on Soda I think that he’ll end up going right
after. Honestly, the best thing Tevin has going for him is the fact that Hunter
just built something of an alliance with Q and Tim and if Tevin isn’t even
doing the social politicking in this pair, I don’t see how he will win. Can’t
decide if the lack of content form these two recently is a product of Orange
being awesome or if it’s a sign that they aren’t going to be winners in season
46.
4. Tiffany (Purple) – Down Two
Outplay:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
I very much enjoy Tiff and it feels wrong to drop her in a week where she got to keep her two #1 allies intact. It’s definitely not a fair move and I accept that criticism. But to me I think there were two guys that had big nights on Wednesday and so I decided to be dramatic and spice things up heading into the merge. Maybe I, much like some of the actual Survivor players, am making big moves too early.
3.
Maria (Green) – Down Two
Outwit:
1 pt
Outlast:
1 pt
We
will have a new number one in the Power Rankings for the first time! Yes, part
of why I am dropping Maria here is because I want to shake things up a bit, but
there were a couple things that gave me pause this episode. She used up her
extra vote advantage when, seemingly, there wasn’t much reason to use it and
while she did some fancy different name / different handwriting shenanigans
with those two votes, I would love to know a little more about the logic of why
she used it here in this spot rather than saved it – maybe we will get that
next episode so I can get some more strategic insight on that move. The other
thing that knocks her down is that she ended up taking out Jem and going
against Mo to side with Ben and Tim who she herself said she didn’t trust in a
confessional. Now maybe that was taken out of context a bit (Tim does think of
Maria as his #1 ally so honestly voting the way she did was probably better for
her game even if she didn’t necessarily think it), but I think it has to at
least be a point in Charlie’s favor that he got his way and got to keep his guy
Ben in the game. Not doubting Maria’s win prospects by any means, but others
had a good night so let’s reward them.
Outplay:
3 pt
It
was almost a perfect night for Hunter. First off, he found an idol which
(assuming he can activate it) will be a huge piece for him as he tries to make
a run into the last quarter of this game. The idol can essentially work like an
extra immunity win for him, so that’s one less challenge he will need to pull
out to reach the final 4 and then he can’t be voted out. Plus he seems to at
least have a potential alliance with Q and Tim after their trip together this
episode. Even if that doesn’t become a legit thing, if it gives him just a
little bit of protection, its another vote or two that he can survive. For
someone like Hunter, that’s really the game at this point. Survive and advance.
If he only could have landed that advantage with the logos, we’d really be
talking.
Outlast:
1 pt
Our new #1 contender, Charlie, gets the top spot as the alliances shake out in the Green tribe’s first tribal. Other than Ben, I think he was the biggest winner of the night. He kept a key ally for himself and seemed to get his way in his conversation with Maria. I think he has a pretty good relationship with Moriah as well and I think he can navigate bringing her back into their fold before the merge. He continues to get some prime spot confessionals and the show is making him look like a reasonably strong strategic player. I think he might be OK in the challenges, but he is not going to stand out at the merge as either a physical or a social threat and I think that is going to work well for him. He also doesn’t seem to have a heart-warming story that makes him threatening and he’s not a parent who people might be worried with endear themselves to the jury. I like his odds and, of course, I’m rooting for the Cross Country runner to come out on top.
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