Survivor 46 Power Rankings: Episode One

Hello Reader!

Below, please find my power rankings for the Survivor 46 cast after the season’s premiere episode. These are winner rankings – who I think is least likely to win up to who is most likely to win, which is worth mentioning as its slightly different than ranking who I think is going to be voted off next.

I listed everyone’s tribe colors because, although I can look up the official tribe names and should technically probably try to learn them, I rarely ever do and I just default to the color system.

I also will be assigning points each episode for people I think did a particularly good job Outwitting (strategic gameplay, manipulation of others), Outplaying (playing hard, performing in challenges) and Outlasting (building alliances and social capital).

Let’s get into it …

18. Jelinsky (Purple)

I absolutely loved the Jelinsky experience: he is one of the most iconic first boots in the show’s history. However, there are several reasons why Jelinsky is last in the Power Rankings:

#1 – He was voted out this week. Generally speaking, this makes it impossible for you to win the game.

#2 – He volunteered to do stuff and then was decidedly not good at said stuff. In a game like Survivor, you need to have a strong self-perception to win.

#3 – He was not very good at deceit. Maria absolutely took this man’s lunch in Torch-Vote-Skull.

#4 – He got overconfident. That’s a classic Survivor sin and it is even worse when you have not actually done anything in the game.

#5 – He referred to himself in the third person. More than once. And then said that he never refers to himself in the third person at tribal council.

#6 – When people went off to talk strategy, he just decided to chill in the shelter and get a quick laydown in. Even Jess was like, “uh, you sure about this my guy?”

#7 – If you ask him, the only possible length for this list was seven things.

17. Tim (Green)

I have nothing against Tim, I actually quite liked him. His vibe seemed very congruent to my vibe. That said, I don’t think my guy had a great look this episode when he was actively saying they needed to break up the women’s alliance on their tribe when the women’s alliance appears like it will be running things. Maria picking up that extra vote, rather than losing her vote, makes things even trickier for the tribe’s resident dad (Jelinksy strikes again!). I could see Tim being the next vote off if things go south for a Green tribe that I am kinda surprised hasn’t lost yet.

16. Randen (Orange)

Randen was pretty invisible in the first episode with his only real contribution to the action being the time he called Venus another Parvati. Maybe that was a move that worked in the 20s, but by season 46 I think that is going to hurt you more than help you. The upside here is that Randen’s Orange team looked absolutely dominant in the first episode so it may be a while before he finds himself at a tribal and it’s hard to get voted out if you are not at a tribal.

15. Jess (Purple)

Would it be surprising at all if Jess was voted out next episode? Certainly not. She was real messy in episode one including not sleeping, losing her water bottle, and, perhaps most importantly in a game like Survivor, she was unable to understand or use the human language to communicate. That is going to be a real dealbreaker, but, in theory, that is fixable. We saw a couple instances where she seemed to be getting along and laughing with some of the others and its not crazy to me that she could integrate herself socially. It’s just going to be an uphill battle without a logical person to throw in front of her.

14. Liz (Orange)

My number one concern with Liz: she is allergic to everything. I don’t want to overvalue the importance of food, but I think it helps in a lot of different areas. For starters, it’s a social activity. This is, at its core a social game. But more critically, you need food to stay physically, mentally and emotionally sharp. Getting hangry is not going to help things out for Liz and that is probably best-case scenario for someone who is not getting enough food intake. Combine that with the fact that a big part of her first impression on the tribe was talking about all the businesses she owned and she may be a super justifiable first boot for orange (if they ever go to tribal that is).

13. Bhanu (Purple)

This guy was a 10 out of 10 from an energy perspective. There is no doubt that this guy wants to play Survivor and when things get hard, that is going to be a valuable asset. From an edit perspective, he’s also been a go-to narrator on the purple tribe so that could be a sign that he is going to make a nice run here (or maybe just a sign that the guy is a 10 out of 10 on the energy scale). To me, I saw a few too many flaws in his game from an emotional perspective. Didn’t seem like he was the most coy tribal council participant of all time and, as we saw in the preview for next week, he is wearing his heart on his sleeve in the challenges. If Purple is the disaster tribe, it’s hard for me to see him not getting cut prior to the merge. If he makes the merge, his stock may start to rise.

12. Ben (Green)

As I spoke about earlier, I am not confident that Green is going to keep up their second-place streak in these challenges and that could be bad news for all the men on this tribe. Ben seemed to have a good energy out there and his tribe really embodied his “Surviber” ideology which shows that he has some social capital. It also shows that, if I’m wrong about Green’s challenge prospects, this team could be super united at the merge and end up with the dominant alliance. However, I my “Survibe” on Ben tells me that he is going to lack that extra something it takes to win a cutthroat game like Survivor. Even if he survives the pre-merge, which I don’t feel super confident about, I can’t see him getting the votes at the end.

11. Q (Purple)

I absolutely loved Q this episode. I really liked his energy, and he seemed like the kind of person that I would really gravitate to out there. He’s a beast and a real athlete so, if he somehow goes deep in this game, he’s going to have a great case for the million. The thing is, how could you ever let Q go deep in this game? Not only is he a physical beast but is also genuinely likable. That’s too many strikes against you. And, oh by the way, despite the fact that they have Q, this team is still 0 for 3 in challenges.

10. Venus (Orange)

OK, so if you are team Venus, you have to like that a) she is clearly going to play hard, b) she seems to have some good social capital as Soda came to her to dish on the Randen conversation and c) she is being compared to Parvati (by herself and Randen) who is, you know, on the Mount Rushmore of all-time Survivor players. On the negative side, she does seem to be a little bit confrontational. We saw in the preview she looks like she is going to have a little beef with someone out there. This could be a pattern with her not quite being able to keep her cool as we saw her reacting poorly to being called a princess and then, seemingly, panic searching for an idol because she was so concerned about her position.

So there’s good and bad here for sure. Ultimately, I think she is going to survive the pre-merge and then her win equity has the chance to multiply as there will be bigger targets than her left at the merge. I have enough social doubts that she is not going to jump higher up my list, but there’s enough upside here to get into the top 10.

9. Moriah (Green)

I keep going back on Moriah and it all stems from one confessional that she had this past episode. I can’t remember the exact transcript, but essentially it was something about how she is socially awkward and is worried that she isn’t going to be able to make friends out here or something. It was very emotional and vulnerable and all the stuff Survivor editors seem to love to use – particularly as part of a journey for a winner or losing finalist. The problem is that, to me, it seemed like Moriah was really excelling socially and had no issues out there. Plus, given her background (trivia, brewing beer, having a boyfriend), I don’t really get a socially awkward vibe. So is this part of a narrative the show is crafting around a key player in the long-term outcome of his game or is this a bit of a misread/underestimation that will hurt her in the long-term? All I know is that one of Moriah or Liz seemingly has to go before the merge, otherwise the other players are going to really need to double check who they are talking to.

8. Tiffany (Purple)

Outplay +1

I gave Tiffany an Outplay point for this episode because she went out, found an idol, solved a puzzle, found a key and got her vote back in a short stretch of on-screen minutes. That’s some impressive gameplay from Tiffany who, by the way, is seemingly well insulated in her alliances with Q and Kenzie (and she also has an idol), so it feels like she has pretty good odds of making a run out there. You could argue that she should be even higher, but there was something here that made me nervous about her long-term prospects that I can’t quite put my finger on (maybe it was when she pulled out the “psyche” and said she didn’t care about losing the challenge). I’d expect some real volatility here on Tiff.

7. Hunter (Orange)

Outplay +1

Hunter also gets an Outplay point here in this episode based on his monster challenge performances. He was a beast out there and his tribe was undefeated on day one. I would definitely be surprised if he didn’t make it to the merge. Like Q, he is going to be a big threat once he gets there and a logical target for an early merge boot. However, unlike Q, I think Hunter is going to have some good numbers at the merge with his Orange tribe teammates. If he can get enough protection in the early merge, I think he may have enough of a lack of personality to fade into the background and let the Sodas, Tevins and Kenzies of the world take the heat (I mean that as a compliment). He’s also a guy who can make a mini-challenge run in the last few days and sneak into the end-game. So I can’t put him too high given his obvious threats, but I see more of a path for him than for Q.

6. Charlie (Green)

Alright, I need to preface all this by saying I am always going to be bias toward Charlie because he is a Cross Country runner and seemingly kind of a nerd about it which is going to instantly endear a character to me as a nerdy Cross Country runner in his own right. The thing about Charlie is, other than the fact that he likes Taylor Swift, I think he is kind of a vanilla guy, but I felt he actually got a good amount of positive face time in this episode. He got a confessional about how he is eager to meet people of different backgrounds to himself and he had the girls alliance talking about how they like him and want to have him in their alliance which is great from a human interest and strategic/social perspective. Plus, in a cast with so many huge personalities, it probably helps to be a little vanilla out there.

As a friend of mine pointed out, he has Taylor Swift behind him and, therefore, the power of the entire liberal agenda. Seems like it will be impossible for him to do anything other than win.

5. Soda (Orange)

I went back and forth on Soda. To me, Soda was a lot and the camp songs got old real quick. However, it seemed like the others on the tribe seemed to like Soda and this wasn’t much of an issue. We also saw her kill it multiple aspects of the Survivor landscape including building a fire, building puzzles and being a confidant for others in the tribe. We saw her seemingly on good terms with Liz, Venus, Randen and Tevin at various points during the episode. One small thing that she did that I really liked was when she was hugging Venus at one point but she also had one eye on the camp around her and she was like, Venus make this hug quick honey because I am not trying to blow up my game right now. That was a glimpse into the killer instinct side of Soda and I’m here for it.

4. Jem (Green)

This is one of those picks that is probably just me reading way too much into little, unimportant things in the episode. Jem didn’t get a ton of face time in episode one, but from my perspective it seemed like she was the central figure in the Maria-Moriah-Jem alliance on green. She also seemed to be the person with a good relationship with Charlie and the one who was able to sort of subtly float him as the 4^th for their numbers. To me, it seemed like people liked Jem, Jem had some control, yet she is not a target at all. I’m very high on whichever members of the Green team make it to the merge because I think they have the most cohesion and trust over there. If it’s Jem, I think she factors into the end game.

3. Tevin (Orange)

What an excellent narrator we’ve got here. Tevin has a cool voice, a cool vibe and just an excellent energy. He got to set the stage for the season and, perhaps this is reading too much into the edit, but it feels like he’s going to be one of the central figures in this year’s story. Would this cast let Tevin get to the end? Would they let this kid (despite having a super deep commanding voice he’s actually one of the youngest people on the island) get in front of a jury to plead his case? That seems like it would be terrible strategy, but I said that same thing about Yam Yam in Season 44 and look how that turned out.

2. Kenzie (Purple)

Outlast +1

Kenzie gets the social point for me this episode as they made a pretty big deal about all of the connections that she was making. She is a salon owner and clearly has an ability to connect with people. There’s another Yam Yam comparison that could be drawn here when you think of it from that perspective. The only reservations that I have are really about whether Kenzie is being set up with an overconfidence edit. She was definitely feeling good about her position at the center of the Purple tribe and that could ultimately come back to bite her, especially on a tribe that lost twice already. If not for that, she’d probably be my #1. One of my favorite things about Kenzie is from her EW bio where she said that one thing people wouldn’t know by looking at her is that she is a savage at Catan and that endeared me to her forever.

1. Maria (Green)

Outwit +1

Obviously if I could have the field or Maria at this point in the season, I’d take the field, but somebody has to be #1 and why not her? She looked like she had some real challenge strength, hauling one of the puzzle pieces on her back and also being a part of the puzzle team. She seems well connected on her tribe, making alliances with the women but also seemingly connecting with Tim in the parents alliance. And, then of course, she earned an Outwit point from me for her absolute crushing defeat of Jelinsky on the journey. That was real slick (although perhaps I should be downgrading it because it was Jelinsky?) and shows that she has the right mix of mother powers combined with cutthroat gameplay. That seems to be the narrative they are building around Maria and I could see that being a winner’s narrative this season. Of course, she had a chance to do much more in this episode than some others did so her strong edit may just be a product of the theme of this episode rather than the theme of the season.

Do I feel confident? No, not really. But do I feel this is the right ranking for now?  Eh, I guess so.