After an episode filled with Jelinsky burns, ant eating and hurt toes, let's see how the Power Rankings have shifted this week ...
17.
Jess (Purple) – Down 2
As much as the episode did a great job of leading us down some alternative paths, it ultimately was not much of a surprise that Jess ended up the second person voted out of this episode. A combination of things was working against her, but I think the biggest factor was a lack of killer instinct. The other four people on her tribe have it in bunches and she was too nice and too quirky to survive the team’s second straight challenge loss.
16.
Liz (Orange) – Down 2
Obviously we are dealing with a heavily edited show, but the Liz strategy we’ve been given seems super odd. There has been a lot of content about how Liz is rich. Like very rich. Like so rich you can’t even get a guy to date you rich (which I can’t decide if that means she’s actually not that rich or if she’s very rich). She’s also getting the cocky edit, almost bordering on Jelinksy levels with “the one and only Liz”. We haven’t seen much content about her being at the bottom – if anything we have seen the reverse – but it just feels like the show is setting us up for a big flame out for Liz.
15.
Bhanu (Purple) – Down 2
Rough night for our guy Bhanu. His intensity and his passion are at a 10, but so is his paranoia and that looks like it will be his undoing. Even if he can survive until a swap or the merge (definitely not impossible), it does not feel like he has the tact to get his blabbing under control in a way that would make him a reliable alliance partner and I could see him being a sacrificial early merge boot. Right now Purple needs to get a W so that the guy can get some time of from tribal council and do some more meditating.
14.
Tim (Green) – Up 3
This may be an unfair position for Tim who I think has low-key been a strong challenge competitor for this solid team, but for whatever reason, my gut tells me that he is on the bottom for this tribe. We haven’t seen much of Green and, even more befuddling, we haven’t seen much of Tim so I’ll just have to rely on my first impression of him and keep him down here.
13.
Randen (Orange) – Up 3
A big step up for Randen in this episode who had one of the biggest one-episode 180s in Survivor by going from calling Venus out for being the Parvati of the season to aligning with Venus and forming a very interesting pair. If he gets his idol activated, he could make a big move and take out someone like a Tevin and really shake up this game. I am still not totally in on the idea of Randen being a power player in this game, but you are starting to see an upside here that was invisible after one episode.
12.
Venus (Orange) – Down 2
I want to start by saying that I am actually pretty sympathetic to Venus’s plight from this episode. She has seemingly ended up fairly isolated from the rest of her tribe without it really being her fault – more of a personality difference than anything – and I would really hate it if someone was grabbing the immunity idol out of my hands as soon as we won it. However, I am starting to have a hard time seeing a path that ends with Venus getting the jury votes to win Survivor (is she getting a villain edit?), particularly from a jury that seems more and more like to be made up by Orange team members who she will either directly betray (as she pointed out, she is ready to flip on them as soon as she can) or at least will be getting in fights with (the preview makes it look like she may be having beef with Hunter next? The most boring vanilla character on this entire show?). Although I don’t see the win equity, I do think there’s a good chance Venus will be in our lives for a lot longer.
As much as the episode did a great job of leading us down some alternative paths, it ultimately was not much of a surprise that Jess ended up the second person voted out of this episode. A combination of things was working against her, but I think the biggest factor was a lack of killer instinct. The other four people on her tribe have it in bunches and she was too nice and too quirky to survive the team’s second straight challenge loss.
Obviously we are dealing with a heavily edited show, but the Liz strategy we’ve been given seems super odd. There has been a lot of content about how Liz is rich. Like very rich. Like so rich you can’t even get a guy to date you rich (which I can’t decide if that means she’s actually not that rich or if she’s very rich). She’s also getting the cocky edit, almost bordering on Jelinksy levels with “the one and only Liz”. We haven’t seen much content about her being at the bottom – if anything we have seen the reverse – but it just feels like the show is setting us up for a big flame out for Liz.
Rough night for our guy Bhanu. His intensity and his passion are at a 10, but so is his paranoia and that looks like it will be his undoing. Even if he can survive until a swap or the merge (definitely not impossible), it does not feel like he has the tact to get his blabbing under control in a way that would make him a reliable alliance partner and I could see him being a sacrificial early merge boot. Right now Purple needs to get a W so that the guy can get some time of from tribal council and do some more meditating.
This may be an unfair position for Tim who I think has low-key been a strong challenge competitor for this solid team, but for whatever reason, my gut tells me that he is on the bottom for this tribe. We haven’t seen much of Green and, even more befuddling, we haven’t seen much of Tim so I’ll just have to rely on my first impression of him and keep him down here.
A big step up for Randen in this episode who had one of the biggest one-episode 180s in Survivor by going from calling Venus out for being the Parvati of the season to aligning with Venus and forming a very interesting pair. If he gets his idol activated, he could make a big move and take out someone like a Tevin and really shake up this game. I am still not totally in on the idea of Randen being a power player in this game, but you are starting to see an upside here that was invisible after one episode.
I want to start by saying that I am actually pretty sympathetic to Venus’s plight from this episode. She has seemingly ended up fairly isolated from the rest of her tribe without it really being her fault – more of a personality difference than anything – and I would really hate it if someone was grabbing the immunity idol out of my hands as soon as we won it. However, I am starting to have a hard time seeing a path that ends with Venus getting the jury votes to win Survivor (is she getting a villain edit?), particularly from a jury that seems more and more like to be made up by Orange team members who she will either directly betray (as she pointed out, she is ready to flip on them as soon as she can) or at least will be getting in fights with (the preview makes it look like she may be having beef with Hunter next? The most boring vanilla character on this entire show?). Although I don’t see the win equity, I do think there’s a good chance Venus will be in our lives for a lot longer.
11.
Ben (Green) – Up 1
In this episode, Ben was one of three different characters for which I made my wife play the game: “next boot or winner’s edit?” when they gave us his backstory. The idea here being that, when we get this emotional story, often times it is setting us up to either give the character a heroic send-off or make us invested in them for the long haul. We got it for Venus, Kenzie and Ben and, of the bunch, I think Ben has the most next boot energy. The tribe seems to like him, he has certainly contributed to some of the best vibes in camp and he is not going to be seen as a threat (he’s not the sharpest tool in the shred). But, ultimately, I haven’t seen any evidence that he is creating any deep bonds that are going to help keep him around and I also haven’t seen the strategic and/or killer instinct side of him. That hasn’t been a problem so far, but eventually this tribe is going to lose and then what?
10.
Moriah (Green) – Down 1
I am pro-Mo and was really trying to find ways to justify putting her higher on this list (could she potentially flip with Jem for example?). Within the good vibes tribe, I don’t think she has been the catalyst for any alliances, I think she has been more of a piece, and that’s what is holding me back from pushing her further up the board. That said, I think the Green tribe has a good chance to be the dominant tribe this season (could be this year’s version of Reba), particularly the Charlie’s Angels which has sorta been rammed down our throats these first two weeks (but I actually love that name so go for it). And Moria seems to be enjoying herself out there, she’s always smiling and was able to enjoy the Metallica-Swift showdown and appreciate it as a break from the boredom rather than let it bring her down. I’m rooting for Moriah, I’m sorry, I can’t help it.
9.
Q (Purple) – Up 2
Speaking of people that I am unabashedly rooting for, let’s talk about Q. You can argue that this episode was a set-back for Q as he lost a potentially loyal ally in Jess, got caught up in some tribal trash talking and was already being talked about as a physical threat. On the flip side, when Kenzie floated out the idea of Q to Bhanu and Jess, they did not even consider it – which was decidedly against both of their best interests in the game as the two people clearly on the bottom. Q talked about how both of these people saw him as their number one which really speaks to his social ability. And his versality. It’s not like Jess, Bhanu and Q should have a lot in common, but here we are.
The
interesting thing that I will be watching over these next couple episodes is
who does this cast see as a threat. Kenzie and Tevin were both identified as big
threats and key figures in their tribe because they are so strong socially. If that
kind of thinking becomes the prevalent thinking among the players in this game,
I think suddenly Q becomes a huge threat because he is a much less obvious
social player given that his physical attributes can actually hide how talented
he is in those other areas. Or, he’s just the ultimate triple threat, like
Kaleb was last season, and they stack 11 votes on him at the wrong time.
8.
Soda (Orange) - Down 3
7.
Jem (Green) – Down 3
6.
Kenzie (Purple) – Down 4
Kenzie’s social chops are not in doubt – she’s got great connections out there and she will, theoretically, be valuable to the depleted Purple tribe when they need to pick up numbers are a merge or a swap. That’s all excellent, but, unfortunately, everyone seems to know how powerful that can be and its starting to work against her. If Purple loses next week, she could end up in a power struggle with Q where her fate in the game might come down to Tiff and, while I think Tiff would protect her, it’s not guaranteed. She also was playing hard. She made the fake idol and was already handing it out just to get out Jess (I mean, no offense, but all that for Jess?). Seems like she’s going to be too obvious a threat and maybe even the next boot.
But
let’s argue the winner’s edit side. I actually don’t think she was in quite as
much danger as the episode made it seem. We did not see Q tell Jess to vote for
Kenzie, he just say to “vote for who I tell you to” and then Jess ended up voting
for Bhanu so it’s possible they hyped up this Kenzie stuff to make what would
have been a very straightforward vote a bit more interesting. We also got lines
like “if we don’t get her out now she’s going to go all the way to the final 3”
which could be some foreshadowing. And she got the big dramatic confessional in
the scenic cave thing that might be part of the winner montage.
So,
what do you think – Next Boot or Winner’s Edit? You can make a case for either,
but at least you can make a case for why she will win.
5.
Hunter (Orange) – Up 2
Outplay: 1 pt
We didn’t see a ton of non-nail related content from Hunter this episode, but we did get some insight into the threat dynamics on the season and it was encouraging for Hunter’s chances. He is far from a gregarious guy and, given all of the gregariousness on his tribe and on this season, it really feels like he is going to have a chance to blend in in a way that is very different from past dudes with his physical skill set. He’s not bad socially by any means – he’s worked in with the power players on his tribe and seems to be very safe – but he’s also kind of quiet and boring and that may be the perfect player to get to the end.
4.
Tevin (Orange) – Down 1
3.
Tiffany (Purple) – Up 5
Outplay: 1 pt
Big episode for Tiffany in my opinion. We already saw that she is competitive and can play hard, but I think this episode also spoke to how well-connected she is with Q and Kenzie. If she can keep those two in the game for a while, they are both fantastic shields for her – one socially and one physically. I am struggling to find a scenario where Tiffany doesn’t make the merge. Even if she ends up on the bad side of a swap, she has an idol to play with. We saw some more of her personality this episode and saw both her softer and more competitive side, as well as her side where she says bro a lot. I’m really starting to buy in.
2.
Charlie (Green) – Up 4
Outlast +1
1. Maria (Green) – No Change
Outwit: 1 pt
Outlast +1
I
think the biggest moment in this very long two-hour episode was the
Maria-Charlie alliance and that is why these two are both getting a point in
the Outlast category. Like I mentioned earlier, I think this Green tribe will
end up being the power players in this game. I really like the vibes, they keep
pulling out 2nd places and they seem to have the right mix of being
under the radar while being strategically above average.
Let’s
talk Charlie first. Maybe it’s just me, since I am rooting for the runner, but
it feels like the kid is getting way more airtime than he deserves given how
quirky some of these other characters are. He’s had a lot of confessionals at
key times where it gives insight into how he is playing the game, how he is building
alliances and how he is considering his options. He had a moment where he was looking
like he was about to get dunked on for being socially awkward, but they turned
that into a (arguably) positive moment where he (sort of) entertained (maybe
like half) of the tribe with his Taylor Swift game and I’m seeing these all as real
positives from an edit standpoint. Why the heck is his nickname Tarzan though?
On
the Maria side, although we didn’t get as much confessional content on her, she
was right there in the Malcom-Denise alliance and she’s the Denise side of things
which is definitely where you want to be in that pair. Maria has the killer
instinct which you need to have if you are going to win Survivor and, although
she let herself be dubbed Lieutenant Mom in the nickname gang, I think she is
not going to let herself be pigeon-holed as the mom out there and it won’t hold
her back in the end game. She’s still the only person that I have handed an
Outwit point to (I’m apparently stingy with those) and she’s strong physically as
well. Let’s do this Maria.
In this episode, Ben was one of three different characters for which I made my wife play the game: “next boot or winner’s edit?” when they gave us his backstory. The idea here being that, when we get this emotional story, often times it is setting us up to either give the character a heroic send-off or make us invested in them for the long haul. We got it for Venus, Kenzie and Ben and, of the bunch, I think Ben has the most next boot energy. The tribe seems to like him, he has certainly contributed to some of the best vibes in camp and he is not going to be seen as a threat (he’s not the sharpest tool in the shred). But, ultimately, I haven’t seen any evidence that he is creating any deep bonds that are going to help keep him around and I also haven’t seen the strategic and/or killer instinct side of him. That hasn’t been a problem so far, but eventually this tribe is going to lose and then what?
I am pro-Mo and was really trying to find ways to justify putting her higher on this list (could she potentially flip with Jem for example?). Within the good vibes tribe, I don’t think she has been the catalyst for any alliances, I think she has been more of a piece, and that’s what is holding me back from pushing her further up the board. That said, I think the Green tribe has a good chance to be the dominant tribe this season (could be this year’s version of Reba), particularly the Charlie’s Angels which has sorta been rammed down our throats these first two weeks (but I actually love that name so go for it). And Moria seems to be enjoying herself out there, she’s always smiling and was able to enjoy the Metallica-Swift showdown and appreciate it as a break from the boredom rather than let it bring her down. I’m rooting for Moriah, I’m sorry, I can’t help it.
Speaking of people that I am unabashedly rooting for, let’s talk about Q. You can argue that this episode was a set-back for Q as he lost a potentially loyal ally in Jess, got caught up in some tribal trash talking and was already being talked about as a physical threat. On the flip side, when Kenzie floated out the idea of Q to Bhanu and Jess, they did not even consider it – which was decidedly against both of their best interests in the game as the two people clearly on the bottom. Q talked about how both of these people saw him as their number one which really speaks to his social ability. And his versality. It’s not like Jess, Bhanu and Q should have a lot in common, but here we are.
Kenzie’s social chops are not in doubt – she’s got great connections out there and she will, theoretically, be valuable to the depleted Purple tribe when they need to pick up numbers are a merge or a swap. That’s all excellent, but, unfortunately, everyone seems to know how powerful that can be and its starting to work against her. If Purple loses next week, she could end up in a power struggle with Q where her fate in the game might come down to Tiff and, while I think Tiff would protect her, it’s not guaranteed. She also was playing hard. She made the fake idol and was already handing it out just to get out Jess (I mean, no offense, but all that for Jess?). Seems like she’s going to be too obvious a threat and maybe even the next boot.
Outplay: 1 pt
We didn’t see a ton of non-nail related content from Hunter this episode, but we did get some insight into the threat dynamics on the season and it was encouraging for Hunter’s chances. He is far from a gregarious guy and, given all of the gregariousness on his tribe and on this season, it really feels like he is going to have a chance to blend in in a way that is very different from past dudes with his physical skill set. He’s not bad socially by any means – he’s worked in with the power players on his tribe and seems to be very safe – but he’s also kind of quiet and boring and that may be the perfect player to get to the end.
Outplay: 1 pt
Big episode for Tiffany in my opinion. We already saw that she is competitive and can play hard, but I think this episode also spoke to how well-connected she is with Q and Kenzie. If she can keep those two in the game for a while, they are both fantastic shields for her – one socially and one physically. I am struggling to find a scenario where Tiffany doesn’t make the merge. Even if she ends up on the bad side of a swap, she has an idol to play with. We saw some more of her personality this episode and saw both her softer and more competitive side, as well as her side where she says bro a lot. I’m really starting to buy in.
Outlast +1
1. Maria (Green) – No Change
Outwit: 1 pt
Outlast +1
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