Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Five: Machete Kills

We’re back baby! Big episode this week where we finally had some fresh blood at tribal and the heat started to turn up on this game. Very intriguing merge coming up and, in anticipation of things shaking up, I’ve decided to make a move or two at the top of the rankings …

14. Jem (Green) – Down Seven

Look I don’t think anyone is going to have a flame out quite the same way that Jelinsky or Bhanu did on this show, but Jem’s last two episodes were not exactly inspiring. I went on the record last week in saying that I didn’t love her move re-hiding the Beware Advantage (and who knows if that actually hurt her at all), but that turned out to be the beginning of a spiral of very hard, machete-wielding game play and over the top lying that just didn’t manifest itself in a trustworthy relationship with her teammates. All that said, I think Jem is the first person who had real winner upside in this game to go home (apologizes to Randen) so things are getting good.

13. Liz (Orange) – No Change

Although Liz is doing a very good job keeping her paranoia and scramblingness under wraps while everyone around her targets their key allies and chases idols, I still don’t think we’ve seen enough of her deeper personality beyond accomplished rich person to suggest that she is going to win this game. We also haven’t seen anyone have a deep personal connection with her and that could make her expendable in this early part of the merge (which will be earn the merge and split tribal if history holds). If she survives that, my wife thinks she has zero-vote finalist upside.

12. Moriah (Green) – Down Two

I’m a big Mo fan so it pains me to have her plummet down the list, but, unfortunately, her closest ally just got voted out and Mo was blindsided. She’s a very expendable piece for Green at the merge and I’m not sure she will be able to jump ship and join up with anyone else because, well, you know (also she has some self-doubts about her social integration ability that she expressed in episode one). I’m rooting for her, but I think she’s more likely to go home in one of the next two episodes than survive.

11. Tim (Green) – Up Three

Tim! Making moves! Big episode for Tim who got a few big wins to help him jump up the list: A) The #1 person he wanted to go home went home. It’s not always that simple. B) He seems like he may have found himself a physical threats alliance with Hunter and Q that could be dangerous at the merge. C) He was actually involved in the episode! He even got the episode name quote!

On the downside, however, I’m not sure I love Tim’s odds of actually winning the game as the least physical guy in the physical guys alliance (no offense Tim) and I still find it real odd that he is saying Maria is his #1 ally and they are tight while Maria is giving confessionals where she says that she doesn’t trust Tim (and Ben).

10. Venus (Orange) – Up Two

The Venus experience was nicely encapsulated in her interaction with Hunter this episode. She annoyed him by doing what was probably a smart strategic move and following him around to try and look for the idol. Then when they had something of a confrontation she said right to his face that she wouldn’t vote him out because he is a shield for her which I found so interesting because on the one hand is Hunter supposed to feel reassured by that? But on the other hand he didn’t really trust her anyway so isn’t that the most reassuring she could possibly be in that situation? In summary, Venus was annoying but probably in a smart gameplay way and then not that trustworthy but in a smart gameplay way and that is why I think she will be, in a someway, a non-winner in the end game but in a smart gameplay way.

9. Kenzie (Purple) – Down One

Outlast: 1 pt

I have been having a very difficult time ranking Kenzie these past few weeks and most of my consternation is centering around the moment that is coming up next week. Thanks to Bhanu, she has been announced as a massive threat to the other tribes and she would be a no-brainer target at the merge. Even Q would probably be on board with that plan (she may have been better off if Q had gotten voted out this episode). However, it is worth noting that Bhanu, while winning lots of hearts, was not exactly showing off a deep knowledge of how to win survivor out on the island and I think, even in the few minutes they met him, Liz and Ben could pick that up. So maybe Kenzie won’t be the #1 target that I am worried she will be? I think we will find out very quickly.

8. Q (Purple) – Up Three

Outwit + 1

Outlast: 1 pt

I cannot quit Q. Is it because he is one of 17 kids and Q is the 17^th letter of the alphabet and I find that incredibly awesome? It is not, I actually literally just figured that out. But I do really appreciate Q’s social and strategic gameplay this year (ironically his physical gameplay has actually be kinda very bad). I actually am giving him an Outwit point this week for coming up with the idea to organize this strong guys alliance and really commit to it with deeper planning as opposed to just the generic “Hey, we are all big, right? We should look out for each other, you know?” that never actually goes anywhere. Could you argue that is more of an Outlast point for social ability than an Outwit point for strategic play? Yes, but I haven’t given out a lot of Outwit points yet so I had to get one in there somewhere.

7. Ben (Green) – Up Two

Outlast + 1

My guy Ben gets an Outlast point this week because his vibes carried him through a tribal council that I definitely thought was going to be his last. He generated a real connection with Charlie and enough of a connection with Maria that she was willing to side with the guys (although maybe that was Tim’s doing?) over the gals. Now he is even being seen as a social threat? A social shield, even! I mean, I guess that makes him a target, but it at least gives him some win equity that I had not seen before. Welcome to varsity, Ben.

6. Soda (Orange) – No Change

5. Tevin (Orange) – No Change

Nothing new to say about these two this week. Hopefully they can work together at the merge, because if Tevin turns on Soda I think that he’ll end up going right after. Honestly, the best thing Tevin has going for him is the fact that Hunter just built something of an alliance with Q and Tim and if Tevin isn’t even doing the social politicking in this pair, I don’t see how he will win. Can’t decide if the lack of content form these two recently is a product of Orange being awesome or if it’s a sign that they aren’t going to be winners in season 46.

4. Tiffany (Purple) – Down Two

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I very much enjoy Tiff and it feels wrong to drop her in a week where she got to keep her two #1 allies intact. It’s definitely not a fair move and I accept that criticism. But to me I think there were two guys that had big nights on Wednesday and so I decided to be dramatic and spice things up heading into the merge. Maybe I, much like some of the actual Survivor players, am making big moves too early.

3. Maria (Green) – Down Two

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

We will have a new number one in the Power Rankings for the first time! Yes, part of why I am dropping Maria here is because I want to shake things up a bit, but there were a couple things that gave me pause this episode. She used up her extra vote advantage when, seemingly, there wasn’t much reason to use it and while she did some fancy different name / different handwriting shenanigans with those two votes, I would love to know a little more about the logic of why she used it here in this spot rather than saved it – maybe we will get that next episode so I can get some more strategic insight on that move. The other thing that knocks her down is that she ended up taking out Jem and going against Mo to side with Ben and Tim who she herself said she didn’t trust in a confessional. Now maybe that was taken out of context a bit (Tim does think of Maria as his #1 ally so honestly voting the way she did was probably better for her game even if she didn’t necessarily think it), but I think it has to at least be a point in Charlie’s favor that he got his way and got to keep his guy Ben in the game. Not doubting Maria’s win prospects by any means, but others had a good night so let’s reward them.

 2. Hunter (Orange) – Up Two

Outplay: 3 pt

It was almost a perfect night for Hunter. First off, he found an idol which (assuming he can activate it) will be a huge piece for him as he tries to make a run into the last quarter of this game. The idol can essentially work like an extra immunity win for him, so that’s one less challenge he will need to pull out to reach the final 4 and then he can’t be voted out. Plus he seems to at least have a potential alliance with Q and Tim after their trip together this episode. Even if that doesn’t become a legit thing, if it gives him just a little bit of protection, its another vote or two that he can survive. For someone like Hunter, that’s really the game at this point. Survive and advance. If he only could have landed that advantage with the logos, we’d really be talking.

 1. Charlie (Green) – Up Two

Outlast: 1 pt

Our new #1 contender, Charlie, gets the top spot as the alliances shake out in the Green tribe’s first tribal. Other than Ben, I think he was the biggest winner of the night. He kept a key ally for himself and seemed to get his way in his conversation with Maria. I think he has a pretty good relationship with Moriah as well and I think he can navigate bringing her back into their fold before the merge. He continues to get some prime spot confessionals and the show is making him look like a reasonably strong strategic player. I think he might be OK in the challenges, but he is not going to stand out at the merge as either a physical or a social threat and I think that is going to work well for him. He also doesn’t seem to have a heart-warming story that makes him threatening and he’s not a parent who people might be worried with endear themselves to the jury. I like his odds and, of course, I’m rooting for the Cross Country runner to come out on top.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Four: God's Plan

Although not a groundbreaking episode by any means, this episode weirdly has me a little shook about my rankings and is making me second guess if I should flip this whole thing on its head - a lot of moves had me completely bumpuzzled out there. For now, I kept things fairly status quo and trying not overact, but maybe I should have in honor of our fallen warrior.

15. Bhanu (Purple) – No Change

What is there to say about Bhanu that hasn’t already been said? Unfortunately for our friend, his game has spiraled so much at this point that the show’s editors couldn’t even justify pretending like anyone else was going home. Even Q, who has been desperate to get out Kenzie, was like yeah, I mean clearly I have to write down Bhanu’s name at this point (and I’m very worried about what’s next for my guy Q). The best thing that I can say about Bhanu is that he is too nice of a person to play survivor.

14. Tim (Green) – Down Two

Even on a night where the Green tribe was actually getting some screen time, poor Tim still couldn’t find his way into a confessional (maybe next episode, Tim). That said, Tim’s name was still coming up plenty in this episode as he somehow managed to become the prime suspect in the Beware Advantage ruse. That could make him a target if Green ever goes to tribal or it could make him an easy person to throw under the bus at the merge. Heck, I’m not even ready to rule out the possibility that poor Tim may be next behind Randen on the medical evacuation list after his legs completely buckled on that platform during the immunity challenge. Platforms were kinda Tim’s nemesis if we are being honest.

13. Liz (Orange) – No Change

OK, so if I took a step back and just looked high level at Liz’s game, I would say that there is some stuff to like. She seems to be a potential swing vote in an impending Tevin-Soda war, she has some smarts, some confidence and is well-spoken, yet she is not someone that people are dying to vote out. However, there is one consistent problem with Liz and that is that I don’t like her. And I think the show is trying to make me not like her. Even today in a pretty bland episode for Liz, they slipped in a line with her throwing the rings where someone was trying to give her advice and she said something along the lines of “I’ve got this” in kind of a snarky overconfident way which fits with how the show has been painting her throughout these first four episodes. This poor woman who is allergic to everything finally gets the chance to eat a dang fish, probably her first real food in nine days, and I am sitting at home booing her off the screen. That is a problem for your win equity.

12. Venus (Orange) – Up Two

So, I think I am starting to get back in on Venus. I’ve always thought she had a chance to make a deep run in this game for a variety of reasons (she’s cutthroat, she’s looking out for numero uno, etc.), but those reasons didn’t seem to line up with a path to victory. However, I’m starting to circle back to her a bit. I am seeing a world where Venus, although she can be abrasive and potentially a little backstabby, is sitting in the end with a couple vanilla people like Ben or really anybody on Green and the jury decides to make the winner the person who was playing an in your face type of hard. Because these other contestants want to play hard, that’s pretty clear from what we’ve seen so far, and Venus could get at least some begrudging respect. I’m monitoring this situation closely.

 11. Q (Purple) – Down Three

Outlast: 1 pt

Loyal readers know that I have been very much on the Q bandwagon this season, but I am afraid that the Q Crew may be on its last night. With the loss of Bhanu, Purple has officially eliminated all of the sloppiness from their tribe and there are no signs of a tribe swap (boo!). From where I am sitting, if Purple loses again Tiffany will be deciding who goes home between Q and Kenzie and I would not want to be in a one-on-one social battle with Kenzie. Yes, Tiff has a strong bond with Q, but she also has a strong bond with Kenzie. A bigger problem than that may be the fact that Bhanu told everyone that Tiff and Q are close. She may want to cut Q just to avoid looking like a strong pair going into the merge. I am very scared for Q and just praying they can finally win an immunity challenge and preserve their trio a bit longer.

 10. Moriah (Green) – No Change

I decided to give Mo the opportunity to jump as high as she could up the list compared to last week and that is what she did.

 9. Ben (Green) – Up Two

I am trying to talk myself into Ben. The guy is seemingly getting a fairly nice edit for himself out there. He is coming across as very kind and is definitely team captain of the vibes out there. However, I cannot take him seriously. I am just not seeing the strategic prowess that you are going to need to get to the end. It’s possible he stumbles there and then is the most likable guy in an unlikely and unlikeable final three, but I just pray that he has better rock and roll related puns to pull from by the time he gets there.

 8. Kenzie (Purple) – Up One

Outlast: 1 pt

Kenzie gets a slight bump this week as she at least managed to survive a potentially precarious situation within her tribe while Bhanu lingered around for Q to try and use as leverage (although her survial was thanks to Bhanu sabotaging himself more than anything Kenzie did). Now she just needs Tiff to side with her over Q and she’ll likely be at the merge (or at the very least a tribe swap) and then maybe, just maybe, she can manage to get herself under the radar while Green and Orange fight each other and potentially even themselves. I’m not ready to jump her all the way up the list because it’s still very possible (likely even?) that she goes next week, but I am ready to push her back into the contender’s circle if things break right.

 7. Jem (Green) – Down Two

I’m of two minds on the whole Beware Advantage thing from Jem. From my perspective (which was admittedly based on very little actual content), it seemed like Jem wasn’t under much suspicion of having found the advantage. However, by planting this thing she puts herself at risk of being discovered, being known as a liar and sowing distrust amongst the good vibes tribe - all of those things seem quite bad. She’s also now informed everyone of how the advantage works so hopefully she doesn’t need to do any more digging (I guess that’s why she hid the box in some bushes or whatever that was last episode?). On the other hand, it seems like it worked and now the suspicion is on Tim and Ben (although the Angels were probably just going to vote out Tim or Ben anyway, right?) and she did a pretty good job lying as far as I could tell which is a favorable light to be shown in. So maybe it’s a good move?

Right now, I lean toward bad move, but to be fair, it was probably just a bored move. You are on the most vanilla tribe in the game, nothing is happening because you keep winning and everyone likes each other? Why not throw some chaos in there, Jem? You’re on Survivor after all!

6. Soda (Orange) – Up One

5. Tevin (Orange) – Down One

I think my feelings on these two are sort of intertwined and so they end up getting one section for the both of them. We were told by Tevin this episode that Soda is playing too hard and that she needs to go, but I kind of felt like Tevin was the one who was playing too hard. Throwing someone’s name out who trusts you as their number one ally is a huge gamble and Liz has no incentive to keep that to herself! At least he didn’t tell Venus, I guess, but dang Tevin chill out a bit. Again, I think the boredom is striking. Way too early to be turning on an ally like that.

As for Soda, I liked her social game positioning (for the most part) heading into this episode and I like that people think she has win equity, but I don’t love that she is already being called out as a threat for doing something as simple as trying to have good relationships with everyone. I’m worried about things blowing up for Tevin, but it’s also quite possible that Soda gets blindsided at some point soon if the troops are already starting to line-up against her.

It’s so early Soda and Tevin! Can’t you see you are going to be social shields for one another! Don’t do this!

4. Hunter (Orange) – Up Two

Outplay: 2 pt + 1

OK, so I don’t love that I am moving Hunter up my rankings this week after he once again established himself as a massive physical threat (he increases his Outplay score to 3 pts after yet another impressive showing in a truly random assortment of stuff). He is going to get clocked as a threat by everyone else and he will get targeted and that makes his path to victory tricky. That said, I do really feel like this cast seems concerned about the social players. Kenzie, Soda, Tevin. Those are the people’s names that are coming up most as the biggest threats that need to go. Have we heard that about Hunter? Not really (of course, it is the pre-merge). Here’s the scenario that Hunter fans are hoping for: Hunter hides within the Orange numbers and the social shields like Tevin and/or Soda for as long as possible and then he wins like two or three well timed immunities, makes a fire and makes an ultra-compelling case for the $1 million. I can honestly see it.

Side bar: what do we think about the scene where Tevin and Soda are doing all that singing and Hunter is kind of looking annoyed laying on the ground? Is that a pro-Hunter/anti-Tevin/Soda scene because the singing is annoying or is that an anti-Hunter scene because he should be having fun out there? Feels to me like it was meant to be a bad look for Tevin but I can’t tell if that is just because I am a wet blanket who finds the singing stuff way too much.

3. Charlie (Green) – No Change

Outlast: 1 pt

Not much from Charlie this go round, but he’s still showing up in every episode with confessionals / story arcs that make him look social and/or strategic. This round he got a segment helping Moriah skip or step with authority or something like that and I felt he also got a reasonably skeptical confessional/eyebrow raise about the Beware Advantage (although Ben of all people seemed to clock the situation the best as he said exactly what happened two different times). I’m biased toward the guy, but I feel like the narrative of the show (and the narrative of the pop culture word) is setting up for the Swifty.

2. Tiffany (Purple) – No Change

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast + 1

As someone who was lukewarm on Tiffany after Episode One, I have completely turned around on her at this point in the season. I find almost everything she says entertaining, perceptive or both, bro. Dead ass. And you have to admire the fact that she has navigated a totally dysfunctional tribe without ever being targeted, while picking up an idol and positioning herself as the swing vote in a looming three-person tribal council. That deserves an outlast point as the social maneuvering here is impressive. Don’t sleep on Tiff.

1. Maria (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

I have never been very passionate about Maria as my #1, she just kinda holds down the spot by default. For me, she was under real threat from Tiff this week, but I still didn’t have enough evidence to knock her from her ranking. I mean we still haven’t even seen her play the game. Even though she struggled in this episode (she looked out of the loop on the Beware Advantage and was a negative in the reward challenge), I still feel like she came off like a tough player and a sympathetic character that you were supposed to root for. I’m still not sure if I am rooting for her, but maybe that’s better for her long-term threat level anyway. You don’t necessarily want to be a Mer-gon on Day Nine of Survivor.

 

By the way, she’s still the only player who has an Outwit point. I’ve tried to find others to give Outwit points to, but the ousting of Jelinsky, Jess and Bhanu has not exactly required a genius level intellect. Here’s to hoping the game is about to get interesting …    

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Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Three: The Purple Tribes and The Purple Tribe

Not the most groundbreaking week of Survivor, but, hey, never a bad time to do a ranking.

16. Randen (Orange) – Down 3
Well, this was a bummer. Never fun to see someone get pulled from the game, particularly when all they did wrong was sleep on some bamboo. The Randen story was just starting to get good as his alliance with Venus was one of the more interesting alliances we had on the show, and they seemingly were going to have an idol to play with as well. Now the interesting storyline becomes what will be the fallout from this? Who will find the Orange tribe idol when it is inevitably replanted? Will Orange still be able to dominate in the challenges without one of their biggest and strongest competitors? Who else will God choose to smite with numb limbs in order to protect our dear Bhanu? Speaking of which …
 
15. Bhanu (Purple) – No Change
It certainly seems like Bhanu was on the verge of being voted out this week and was saved by the fluke med-evac (although Q’s reaction really makes me wonder), but I think his chances of winning the game are still dangerously low. It’s hard for me to imagine that a guy who is stricken with paranoia, emotional volatility and blabber-mouth disease is going to get the respect of the jury at the end of this game. Not to mention that he’s still at the bottom of a winless tribe and in danger of drifting further down once he reveals how he sold out everyone to Liz and Ben on the journey.
 
BUT I’m actually really starting to buy-in to the possibility that Bhanu is going to make a deep run in this game. If he can somehow make the merge, he is going to be so unthreatening that he may stumble into a free pass to final tribal as a presumptive zero vote finalist. And, hey, if he makes it to final tribal, there are less likable people that you could give a million bucks to, right?
 
14. Venus (Orange) – Down 2
Even before Randen, her one known ally, was pulled from the game, I didn’t love what I was seeing from Venus. To me, she came across as a little too strong-willed/antagonistic in her conversation with Randen where she was pitching Hunter (although maybe I am only downgrading that because I am a product of the patriarchy) and that was her ally. Still feels to me like she is on the outs from Tevin and Soda and if this team goes to tribal – a lot more likely of an outcome without Randen – she could be the one to go.
 
13. Liz (Orange) – Up 3
Look at Liz! Up three spots this week! It helps to have an episode where your storyline isn’t all about how rich you are. Instead, she showed some real social and strategic tact during her journey and she was part of the team that got him to give up all his secrets. Was that difficult to do? Nah, Bhanu is a sieve. But Liz didn’t mess it up! And when we are at the bottom of the list, that was apparently enough.
 
12. Tim (Green) – Up 2
Not going to lie to you, I don’t know much about Tim. And I am going to bet you also don’t know much about Tim. Close your eyes and try to picture what Tim’s voice sounds like. You can’t, can you? Of course that may just be because I told you to picture what his voice sounds like. Don’t feel bad if don’t know Tim because, quite frankly, the show doesn’t seem to care much about Tim or the Green tribe in general considering that the main thing they showed us this week was an idol hunt from four days previously. But I still believe in the team works and vibes over at the Green tribe and, although they may be kinda boring, it seems like whoever survives to the merge will have a chance of factoring in to the end game.
 
11. Ben (Green) – No Change
Despite the fact that Ben has been arguably the most memorable character of the entire Green tribe, he almost dropped in my rankings this week and arguably should have. This episode he lost his vote, showed that he wasn’t a great puzzler and, in one of the secret scenes that was cut from the episode, there was a segment about how he isn’t talking detailed strategy with anyone on the island. Not to mention I did not care for those rock puns one bit. He is the king of the vibes which is great as long as his tribe is winning, but without a vote it’s very possible that he becomes an easy boot. I did at least like the way that he lied when he came back from the journey and seemed like that was a smart, logical lie to tell to help protect himself without setting himself up to get exposed later on.
 
10. Moriah (Green) – No Change
If I showed you a picture of Liz and then showed you a picture of Moriah, would you know the difference? Maybe now that Moriah has a giant gash on her face from going hard in the challenge (rock on, Mo), but she’s still fairly invisible on the purple tribe (which is the Green tribe this season). I’m thinking the story is going to have to pick up for Green at some point and then I’ll be able to see if my first episode hopes for Mo were validated.
 
9. Kenzie (Purple) – Down 3
Outlast: 1 pt
This pains me to say, but after this latest episode I actually think if I was putting on odds on who would go further out of Kenzie and Bhanu in this game, I would make Bhanu the favorite. Sure, Kenzie has much more win equity than Bhanu or practically anybody else on this list if she can make it to the end, but her game got absolutely bombed this week when Bhanu announced to the other tribes that she was a master manipulator that was running the game and could not be trusted. The Drag-maid – yikes, gonna need to rearrange that one – the Mer-gon still has the skills that would be required to win this game, but her threat level is probably #1 in the entire game and just three episodes in that is a Dragon-sized problem.
 
8. Q (Purple) – Up 1
Outlast: 1 pt
I would have loved to have known if there was any chance Q was actually going to get his way and convince Tiffany to vote out Kenzie over Bhanu this week had Randen gotten the chance to sleep in Hunter’s travel bed. If he could have pulled that off, I would really need to give credit to this guy who would become a very influential player. My read was that he authentically believed they were going to blindside Kenzie. I don’t think that was going to happen because I can’t imagine Tiff making that move at that point, but still, I’m intrigued by the charisma and power of Q.
 
7. Soda (Orange) – Up 1
OK, so I heard an interesting take on the Soda-Venus idol grabbing thing and want to share it with all of you. Yes, it is very bad that Soda was grabbing the idol out of Vensus’s hands, but is it also bad that Venus was extending her arms and always being the one taking the idol from Jeff? Is she actually be a big idol hog by always being the one who is accepting the idol from Jeff after they win? Something to watch out for on the next episode.
 
6. Hunter (Orange) – Down 1
Outplay: 1 pt + 1
Hunter becomes our first player to get a second point in the Outplay category and he actually ends up being our only person to pick up any additional points in this episode so that’s great for him. The dude absolutely killed it in the challenge thanks to Chekov’s sandbag during his flash back. And I actually really liked how he seemed to be convincing his tribe (with the exception of Venus) that he was not that smart or knowledgeable about the game and was only there for the adventure. That seemed like a smart way to lower his threat level. But if he is going to single-handedly win challenges like he did this week then it’s not going to matter how dumb he pretends to be and that is what scares me.
 
5. Jem (Green) – Up 2
Good news for Jem is that she had a nice uptick in face time this episode. Even better was the fact that she ended up grabbing the idol during a group idol search, seemingly without anyone else realizing. If you noticed, for the first time this season, they actually had her read out the part of the note where it says “if your tribe never loses, you will receive different instructions” or something like that so that could be foreshadowing that Green is going to keep winning all the way to the merge which would potentially even better good news.
 
4. Tevin (Orange) – No Change
Surprisingly invisible episode for Tevin this week as well, but nobody around him did enough for me to drop him outside my top four at this stage in the game as my first impression continues to drive his ranking here. Having Randen and his idol out of the mix should help him out a bit as this takes away an important piece from the rebellion, but it could put Orange more at risk of heading to tribal. I’d be interested in seeing one of these other tribes go so that some actual battle lines are drawn and hopefully figure out if Tevin’s social connections are as strong as I think.
 
3. Charlie (Green) – Down 1
Outlast: 1 pt
Charlie takes a slight dip this week as he was a part of the uneventfulness over on the Green tribe, but he still did manage to get a confessional in there during the idol search and continues to be shown in a reasonably strategic light. The Jem idol thing could either work to his benefit (they seem to have a good relationship) or be a piece that Jem uses to help the Angels rather than Charlie. Perhaps we will find out in a flashback two episodes after it happens.
 
2. Tiffany (Purple) – Up 1
Outplay: 1 pt
I gave Tiff a small bump this year as I continue to really enjoy her confessionals. She seems like a healthy mix of competitiveness, strategic insight, social strength and just not putting up with any bull crap. I don’t love how much her tribe is losing and what that could mean for her numbers-wise at the merge, but she is probably the least threatening of all the Purple people and that opens the door for her to play the middle and find a way to factor into the late game.
 
1. Maria (Green) – No Change
Outwit: 1 pt
Outlast: 1 pt
Nothing in the episode would be reason to justify dropping Maria out of this number one spot so I’ll keep her here, but hopefully we get to see more of her (and the Green tribe) next episode so that I can feel more confident in this decision. It’s a very wide open game at this stage, so I’m not sure she will hold this position forever, but for now Maria remains undefeated.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Two: Next Boot or Winner's Edit?

After an episode filled with Jelinsky burns, ant eating and hurt toes, let's see how the Power Rankings have shifted this week ...

17. Jess (Purple) – Down 2
As much as the episode did a great job of leading us down some alternative paths, it ultimately was not much of a surprise that Jess ended up the second person voted out of this episode. A combination of things was working against her, but I think the biggest factor was a lack of killer instinct. The other four people on her tribe have it in bunches and she was too nice and too quirky to survive the team’s second straight challenge loss.
 
16. Liz (Orange) – Down 2
Obviously we are dealing with a heavily edited show, but the Liz strategy we’ve been given seems super odd. There has been a lot of content about how Liz is rich. Like very rich. Like so rich you can’t even get a guy to date you rich (which I can’t decide if that means she’s actually not that rich or if she’s very rich). She’s also getting the cocky edit, almost bordering on Jelinksy levels with “the one and only Liz”.  We haven’t seen much content about her being at the bottom – if anything we have seen the reverse – but it just feels like the show is setting us up for a big flame out for Liz.
 
15. Bhanu (Purple) – Down 2
Rough night for our guy Bhanu. His intensity and his passion are at a 10, but so is his paranoia and that looks like it will be his undoing. Even if he can survive until a swap or the merge (definitely not impossible), it does not feel like he has the tact to get his blabbing under control in a way that would make him a reliable alliance partner and I could see him being a sacrificial early merge boot. Right now Purple needs to get a W so that the guy can get some time of from tribal council and do some more meditating.
 
14. Tim (Green) – Up 3
This may be an unfair position for Tim who I think has low-key been a strong challenge competitor for this solid team, but for whatever reason, my gut tells me that he is on the bottom for this tribe. We haven’t seen much of Green and, even more befuddling, we haven’t seen much of Tim so I’ll just have to rely on my first impression of him and keep him down here.
 
13. Randen (Orange) – Up 3
A big step up for Randen in this episode who had one of the biggest one-episode 180s in Survivor by going from calling Venus out for being the Parvati of the season to aligning with Venus and forming a very interesting pair. If he gets his idol activated, he could make a big move and take out someone like a Tevin and really shake up this game. I am still not totally in on the idea of Randen being a power player in this game, but you are starting to see an upside here that was invisible after one episode.
 
12. Venus (Orange) – Down 2
I want to start by saying that I am actually pretty sympathetic to Venus’s plight from this episode. She has seemingly ended up fairly isolated from the rest of her tribe without it really being her fault – more of a personality difference than anything – and I would really hate it if someone was grabbing the immunity idol out of my hands as soon as we won it. However, I am starting to have a hard time seeing a path that ends with Venus getting the jury votes to win Survivor (is she getting a villain edit?), particularly from a jury that seems more and more like to be made up by Orange team members who she will either directly betray (as she pointed out, she is ready to flip on them as soon as she can) or at least will be getting in fights with (the preview makes it look like she may be having beef with Hunter next? The most boring vanilla character on this entire show?). Although I don’t see the win equity, I do think there’s a good chance Venus will be in our lives for a lot longer.

11. Ben (Green) – Up 1
In this episode, Ben was one of three different characters for which I made my wife play the game: “next boot or winner’s edit?” when they gave us his backstory. The idea here being that, when we get this emotional story, often times it is setting us up to either give the character a heroic send-off or make us invested in them for the long haul. We got it for Venus, Kenzie and Ben and, of the bunch, I think Ben has the most next boot energy. The tribe seems to like him, he has certainly contributed to some of the best vibes in camp and he is not going to be seen as a threat (he’s not the sharpest tool in the shred). But, ultimately, I haven’t seen any evidence that he is creating any deep bonds that are going to help keep him around and I also haven’t seen the strategic and/or killer instinct side of him. That hasn’t been a problem so far, but eventually this tribe is going to lose and then what?
 
10. Moriah (Green) – Down 1
I am pro-Mo and was really trying to find ways to justify putting her higher on this list (could she potentially flip with Jem for example?). Within the good vibes tribe, I don’t think she has been the catalyst for any alliances, I think she has been more of a piece, and that’s what is holding me back from pushing her further up the board. That said, I think the Green tribe has a good chance to be the dominant tribe this season (could be this year’s version of Reba), particularly the Charlie’s Angels which has sorta been rammed down our throats these first two weeks (but I actually love that name so go for it). And Moria seems to be enjoying herself out there, she’s always smiling and was able to enjoy the Metallica-Swift showdown and appreciate it as a break from the boredom rather than let it bring her down. I’m rooting for Moriah, I’m sorry, I can’t help it.
 
9. Q (Purple) – Up 2
Outlast + 1
Speaking of people that I am unabashedly rooting for, let’s talk about Q. You can argue that this episode was a set-back for Q as he lost a potentially loyal ally in Jess, got caught up in some tribal trash talking and was already being talked about as a physical threat. On the flip side, when Kenzie floated out the idea of Q to Bhanu and Jess, they did not even consider it – which was decidedly against both of their best interests in the game as the two people clearly on the bottom. Q talked about how both of these people saw him as their number one which really speaks to his social ability. And his versality. It’s not like Jess, Bhanu and Q should have a lot in common, but here we are.
 
The interesting thing that I will be watching over these next couple episodes is who does this cast see as a threat. Kenzie and Tevin were both identified as big threats and key figures in their tribe because they are so strong socially. If that kind of thinking becomes the prevalent thinking among the players in this game, I think suddenly Q becomes a huge threat because he is a much less obvious social player given that his physical attributes can actually hide how talented he is in those other areas. Or, he’s just the ultimate triple threat, like Kaleb was last season, and they stack 11 votes on him at the wrong time.
 
8. Soda (Orange) - Down 3
Soda continues to be the player that I have the most mixed feelings about. We saw her competitive side today and she’s actually a super valuable challenge players on this Orange tribe that keeps on winning out there. She seems to be insulated within a strong majority alliance as well with a lot of gifts socially. But I really did not like the grabbing the idol thing, I did not love how things are going with the Venus relationship and I’m not loving how there is a rumbling anti-Soda/Tevin alliance forming that has an idol. Just can’t get a read on her long-term prospects in this one.
 
7. Jem (Green) – Down 3
I don’t have too much to say about Jem this week. I originally had her lower since all we got from her was a little bit of snark about the music game and not much else socially or strategically, but I don’t want to overreact to one episode and I want to trust my gut from that first episode. I just hoping we see a little bit more from her in the coming episodes because, so far, there’s not a lot of Jungle Jem content on the island.
 
6. Kenzie (Purple) – Down 4
Outlast: 1 pt
Kenzie’s social chops are not in doubt – she’s got great connections out there and she will, theoretically, be valuable to the depleted Purple tribe when they need to pick up numbers are a merge or a swap. That’s all excellent, but, unfortunately, everyone seems to know how powerful that can be and its starting to work against her. If Purple loses next week, she could end up in a power struggle with Q where her fate in the game might come down to Tiff and, while I think Tiff would protect her, it’s not guaranteed. She also was playing hard. She made the fake idol and was already handing it out just to get out Jess (I mean, no offense, but all that for Jess?). Seems like she’s going to be too obvious a threat and maybe even the next boot.
 
But let’s argue the winner’s edit side. I actually don’t think she was in quite as much danger as the episode made it seem. We did not see Q tell Jess to vote for Kenzie, he just say to “vote for who I tell you to” and then Jess ended up voting for Bhanu so it’s possible they hyped up this Kenzie stuff to make what would have been a very straightforward vote a bit more interesting. We also got lines like “if we don’t get her out now she’s going to go all the way to the final 3” which could be some foreshadowing. And she got the big dramatic confessional in the scenic cave thing that might be part of the winner montage.
 
So, what do you think – Next Boot or Winner’s Edit? You can make a case for either, but at least you can make a case for why she will win.
 
5. Hunter (Orange) – Up 2
Outplay: 1 pt
We didn’t see a ton of non-nail related content from Hunter this episode, but we did get some insight into the threat dynamics on the season and it was encouraging for Hunter’s chances. He is far from a gregarious guy and, given all of the gregariousness on his tribe and on this season, it really feels like he is going to have a chance to blend in in a way that is very different from past dudes with his physical skill set. He’s not bad socially by any means – he’s worked in with the power players on his tribe and seems to be very safe – but he’s also kind of quiet and boring and that may be the perfect player to get to the end.
 
4. Tevin (Orange) – Down 1
I am not ready to quit Tevin just yet. I am definitely nervous about him after this episode because he has been clearly identified as someone who is running things and, particularly in the new era, that is a kiss of death. I also don’t think he was coming across great in the episode with respect to his interactions with Venus. Still, it seems like he has made real connections with everyone else and that speaks to his social game and his likelihood that he will at least make the merge and have the chance to see if he can either downplay his threat level a bit or recruit more numbers to his cause. I still see a path to victory.
 
3. Tiffany (Purple) – Up 5
Outplay: 1 pt
Big episode for Tiffany in my opinion. We already saw that she is competitive and can play hard, but I think this episode also spoke to how well-connected she is with Q and Kenzie. If she can keep those two in the game for a while, they are both fantastic shields for her – one socially and one physically. I am struggling to find a scenario where Tiffany doesn’t make the merge. Even if she ends up on the bad side of a swap, she has an idol to play with. We saw some more of her personality this episode and saw both her softer and more competitive side, as well as her side where she says bro a lot. I’m really starting to buy in.
 
 
2. Charlie (Green) – Up 4
Outlast +1
1. Maria (Green) – No Change
Outwit: 1 pt
Outlast +1
 
I think the biggest moment in this very long two-hour episode was the Maria-Charlie alliance and that is why these two are both getting a point in the Outlast category. Like I mentioned earlier, I think this Green tribe will end up being the power players in this game. I really like the vibes, they keep pulling out 2^nd places and they seem to have the right mix of being under the radar while being strategically above average.
 
Let’s talk Charlie first. Maybe it’s just me, since I am rooting for the runner, but it feels like the kid is getting way more airtime than he deserves given how quirky some of these other characters are. He’s had a lot of confessionals at key times where it gives insight into how he is playing the game, how he is building alliances and how he is considering his options. He had a moment where he was looking like he was about to get dunked on for being socially awkward, but they turned that into a (arguably) positive moment where he (sort of) entertained (maybe like half) of the tribe with his Taylor Swift game and I’m seeing these all as real positives from an edit standpoint. Why the heck is his nickname Tarzan though?
 
On the Maria side, although we didn’t get as much confessional content on her, she was right there in the Malcom-Denise alliance and she’s the Denise side of things which is definitely where you want to be in that pair. Maria has the killer instinct which you need to have if you are going to win Survivor and, although she let herself be dubbed Lieutenant Mom in the nickname gang, I think she is not going to let herself be pigeon-holed as the mom out there and it won’t hold her back in the end game. She’s still the only person that I have handed an Outwit point to (I’m apparently stingy with those) and she’s strong physically as well. Let’s do this Maria.

Survivor 46 Power Rankings: Episode One

Hello Reader!

Below, please find my power rankings for the Survivor 46 cast after the season’s premiere episode. These are winner rankings – who I think is least likely to win up to who is most likely to win, which is worth mentioning as its slightly different than ranking who I think is going to be voted off next.

I listed everyone’s tribe colors because, although I can look up the official tribe names and should technically probably try to learn them, I rarely ever do and I just default to the color system.

I also will be assigning points each episode for people I think did a particularly good job Outwitting (strategic gameplay, manipulation of others), Outplaying (playing hard, performing in challenges) and Outlasting (building alliances and social capital).

Let’s get into it …

18. Jelinsky (Purple)

I absolutely loved the Jelinsky experience: he is one of the most iconic first boots in the show’s history. However, there are several reasons why Jelinsky is last in the Power Rankings:

#1 – He was voted out this week. Generally speaking, this makes it impossible for you to win the game.

#2 – He volunteered to do stuff and then was decidedly not good at said stuff. In a game like Survivor, you need to have a strong self-perception to win.

#3 – He was not very good at deceit. Maria absolutely took this man’s lunch in Torch-Vote-Skull.

#4 – He got overconfident. That’s a classic Survivor sin and it is even worse when you have not actually done anything in the game.

#5 – He referred to himself in the third person. More than once. And then said that he never refers to himself in the third person at tribal council.

#6 – When people went off to talk strategy, he just decided to chill in the shelter and get a quick laydown in. Even Jess was like, “uh, you sure about this my guy?”

#7 – If you ask him, the only possible length for this list was seven things.

17. Tim (Green)

I have nothing against Tim, I actually quite liked him. His vibe seemed very congruent to my vibe. That said, I don’t think my guy had a great look this episode when he was actively saying they needed to break up the women’s alliance on their tribe when the women’s alliance appears like it will be running things. Maria picking up that extra vote, rather than losing her vote, makes things even trickier for the tribe’s resident dad (Jelinksy strikes again!). I could see Tim being the next vote off if things go south for a Green tribe that I am kinda surprised hasn’t lost yet.

16. Randen (Orange)

Randen was pretty invisible in the first episode with his only real contribution to the action being the time he called Venus another Parvati. Maybe that was a move that worked in the 20s, but by season 46 I think that is going to hurt you more than help you. The upside here is that Randen’s Orange team looked absolutely dominant in the first episode so it may be a while before he finds himself at a tribal and it’s hard to get voted out if you are not at a tribal.

15. Jess (Purple)

Would it be surprising at all if Jess was voted out next episode? Certainly not. She was real messy in episode one including not sleeping, losing her water bottle, and, perhaps most importantly in a game like Survivor, she was unable to understand or use the human language to communicate. That is going to be a real dealbreaker, but, in theory, that is fixable. We saw a couple instances where she seemed to be getting along and laughing with some of the others and its not crazy to me that she could integrate herself socially. It’s just going to be an uphill battle without a logical person to throw in front of her.

14. Liz (Orange)

My number one concern with Liz: she is allergic to everything. I don’t want to overvalue the importance of food, but I think it helps in a lot of different areas. For starters, it’s a social activity. This is, at its core a social game. But more critically, you need food to stay physically, mentally and emotionally sharp. Getting hangry is not going to help things out for Liz and that is probably best-case scenario for someone who is not getting enough food intake. Combine that with the fact that a big part of her first impression on the tribe was talking about all the businesses she owned and she may be a super justifiable first boot for orange (if they ever go to tribal that is).

13. Bhanu (Purple)

This guy was a 10 out of 10 from an energy perspective. There is no doubt that this guy wants to play Survivor and when things get hard, that is going to be a valuable asset. From an edit perspective, he’s also been a go-to narrator on the purple tribe so that could be a sign that he is going to make a nice run here (or maybe just a sign that the guy is a 10 out of 10 on the energy scale). To me, I saw a few too many flaws in his game from an emotional perspective. Didn’t seem like he was the most coy tribal council participant of all time and, as we saw in the preview for next week, he is wearing his heart on his sleeve in the challenges. If Purple is the disaster tribe, it’s hard for me to see him not getting cut prior to the merge. If he makes the merge, his stock may start to rise.

12. Ben (Green)

As I spoke about earlier, I am not confident that Green is going to keep up their second-place streak in these challenges and that could be bad news for all the men on this tribe. Ben seemed to have a good energy out there and his tribe really embodied his “Surviber” ideology which shows that he has some social capital. It also shows that, if I’m wrong about Green’s challenge prospects, this team could be super united at the merge and end up with the dominant alliance. However, I my “Survibe” on Ben tells me that he is going to lack that extra something it takes to win a cutthroat game like Survivor. Even if he survives the pre-merge, which I don’t feel super confident about, I can’t see him getting the votes at the end.

11. Q (Purple)

I absolutely loved Q this episode. I really liked his energy, and he seemed like the kind of person that I would really gravitate to out there. He’s a beast and a real athlete so, if he somehow goes deep in this game, he’s going to have a great case for the million. The thing is, how could you ever let Q go deep in this game? Not only is he a physical beast but is also genuinely likable. That’s too many strikes against you. And, oh by the way, despite the fact that they have Q, this team is still 0 for 3 in challenges.

10. Venus (Orange)

OK, so if you are team Venus, you have to like that a) she is clearly going to play hard, b) she seems to have some good social capital as Soda came to her to dish on the Randen conversation and c) she is being compared to Parvati (by herself and Randen) who is, you know, on the Mount Rushmore of all-time Survivor players. On the negative side, she does seem to be a little bit confrontational. We saw in the preview she looks like she is going to have a little beef with someone out there. This could be a pattern with her not quite being able to keep her cool as we saw her reacting poorly to being called a princess and then, seemingly, panic searching for an idol because she was so concerned about her position.

So there’s good and bad here for sure. Ultimately, I think she is going to survive the pre-merge and then her win equity has the chance to multiply as there will be bigger targets than her left at the merge. I have enough social doubts that she is not going to jump higher up my list, but there’s enough upside here to get into the top 10.

9. Moriah (Green)

I keep going back on Moriah and it all stems from one confessional that she had this past episode. I can’t remember the exact transcript, but essentially it was something about how she is socially awkward and is worried that she isn’t going to be able to make friends out here or something. It was very emotional and vulnerable and all the stuff Survivor editors seem to love to use – particularly as part of a journey for a winner or losing finalist. The problem is that, to me, it seemed like Moriah was really excelling socially and had no issues out there. Plus, given her background (trivia, brewing beer, having a boyfriend), I don’t really get a socially awkward vibe. So is this part of a narrative the show is crafting around a key player in the long-term outcome of his game or is this a bit of a misread/underestimation that will hurt her in the long-term? All I know is that one of Moriah or Liz seemingly has to go before the merge, otherwise the other players are going to really need to double check who they are talking to.

8. Tiffany (Purple)

Outplay +1

I gave Tiffany an Outplay point for this episode because she went out, found an idol, solved a puzzle, found a key and got her vote back in a short stretch of on-screen minutes. That’s some impressive gameplay from Tiffany who, by the way, is seemingly well insulated in her alliances with Q and Kenzie (and she also has an idol), so it feels like she has pretty good odds of making a run out there. You could argue that she should be even higher, but there was something here that made me nervous about her long-term prospects that I can’t quite put my finger on (maybe it was when she pulled out the “psyche” and said she didn’t care about losing the challenge). I’d expect some real volatility here on Tiff.

7. Hunter (Orange)

Outplay +1

Hunter also gets an Outplay point here in this episode based on his monster challenge performances. He was a beast out there and his tribe was undefeated on day one. I would definitely be surprised if he didn’t make it to the merge. Like Q, he is going to be a big threat once he gets there and a logical target for an early merge boot. However, unlike Q, I think Hunter is going to have some good numbers at the merge with his Orange tribe teammates. If he can get enough protection in the early merge, I think he may have enough of a lack of personality to fade into the background and let the Sodas, Tevins and Kenzies of the world take the heat (I mean that as a compliment). He’s also a guy who can make a mini-challenge run in the last few days and sneak into the end-game. So I can’t put him too high given his obvious threats, but I see more of a path for him than for Q.

6. Charlie (Green)

Alright, I need to preface all this by saying I am always going to be bias toward Charlie because he is a Cross Country runner and seemingly kind of a nerd about it which is going to instantly endear a character to me as a nerdy Cross Country runner in his own right. The thing about Charlie is, other than the fact that he likes Taylor Swift, I think he is kind of a vanilla guy, but I felt he actually got a good amount of positive face time in this episode. He got a confessional about how he is eager to meet people of different backgrounds to himself and he had the girls alliance talking about how they like him and want to have him in their alliance which is great from a human interest and strategic/social perspective. Plus, in a cast with so many huge personalities, it probably helps to be a little vanilla out there.

As a friend of mine pointed out, he has Taylor Swift behind him and, therefore, the power of the entire liberal agenda. Seems like it will be impossible for him to do anything other than win.

5. Soda (Orange)

I went back and forth on Soda. To me, Soda was a lot and the camp songs got old real quick. However, it seemed like the others on the tribe seemed to like Soda and this wasn’t much of an issue. We also saw her kill it multiple aspects of the Survivor landscape including building a fire, building puzzles and being a confidant for others in the tribe. We saw her seemingly on good terms with Liz, Venus, Randen and Tevin at various points during the episode. One small thing that she did that I really liked was when she was hugging Venus at one point but she also had one eye on the camp around her and she was like, Venus make this hug quick honey because I am not trying to blow up my game right now. That was a glimpse into the killer instinct side of Soda and I’m here for it.

4. Jem (Green)

This is one of those picks that is probably just me reading way too much into little, unimportant things in the episode. Jem didn’t get a ton of face time in episode one, but from my perspective it seemed like she was the central figure in the Maria-Moriah-Jem alliance on green. She also seemed to be the person with a good relationship with Charlie and the one who was able to sort of subtly float him as the 4^th for their numbers. To me, it seemed like people liked Jem, Jem had some control, yet she is not a target at all. I’m very high on whichever members of the Green team make it to the merge because I think they have the most cohesion and trust over there. If it’s Jem, I think she factors into the end game.

3. Tevin (Orange)

What an excellent narrator we’ve got here. Tevin has a cool voice, a cool vibe and just an excellent energy. He got to set the stage for the season and, perhaps this is reading too much into the edit, but it feels like he’s going to be one of the central figures in this year’s story. Would this cast let Tevin get to the end? Would they let this kid (despite having a super deep commanding voice he’s actually one of the youngest people on the island) get in front of a jury to plead his case? That seems like it would be terrible strategy, but I said that same thing about Yam Yam in Season 44 and look how that turned out.

2. Kenzie (Purple)

Outlast +1

Kenzie gets the social point for me this episode as they made a pretty big deal about all of the connections that she was making. She is a salon owner and clearly has an ability to connect with people. There’s another Yam Yam comparison that could be drawn here when you think of it from that perspective. The only reservations that I have are really about whether Kenzie is being set up with an overconfidence edit. She was definitely feeling good about her position at the center of the Purple tribe and that could ultimately come back to bite her, especially on a tribe that lost twice already. If not for that, she’d probably be my #1. One of my favorite things about Kenzie is from her EW bio where she said that one thing people wouldn’t know by looking at her is that she is a savage at Catan and that endeared me to her forever.

1. Maria (Green)

Outwit +1

Obviously if I could have the field or Maria at this point in the season, I’d take the field, but somebody has to be #1 and why not her? She looked like she had some real challenge strength, hauling one of the puzzle pieces on her back and also being a part of the puzzle team. She seems well connected on her tribe, making alliances with the women but also seemingly connecting with Tim in the parents alliance. And, then of course, she earned an Outwit point from me for her absolute crushing defeat of Jelinsky on the journey. That was real slick (although perhaps I should be downgrading it because it was Jelinsky?) and shows that she has the right mix of mother powers combined with cutthroat gameplay. That seems to be the narrative they are building around Maria and I could see that being a winner’s narrative this season. Of course, she had a chance to do much more in this episode than some others did so her strong edit may just be a product of the theme of this episode rather than the theme of the season.

Do I feel confident? No, not really. But do I feel this is the right ranking for now?  Eh, I guess so.