Team Ninja Warrior Stat Attack

With the newest season of Team Ninja Warrior fast approaching, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at the past two seasons of the show to see which Ninjas had put together the best performances in the format’s brief history. This spring’s rebranded Ninja vs. Ninja may not have the exact same rules as what we saw in prior editions, but I’m assuming that basic skills required to be successful will be consistent.

Before we jump into the statistics, let me first refresh you on the basics of team related ninja competition. Competitors compete side by side to see who can finish a series of obstacles fastest. Unlike normal season competition or even USA vs. the World, the obstacles aren’t designed to be particularly grueling or challenging for the top talent. Instead, they try to incorporate the ninja basics like balance, strength and ingenuity into shorter, simpler challenges which will shift the mindset toward speed rather than endurance. However, like conventional competition, if you fall first, you’re out.  

For a look at how these theories work in practice check out this link to past episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OM_1NMxFP1xSMU8dclWuQ

Based on the Sasukepedia Team Ninja Warrior pages, I reviewed all the matches from the last two seasons and summarized the runs to see which Ninjas were most effective in this speed oriented format. Here is what I discovered¹:

Win Percentage

The first, most logical way to gauge success was to look at a Ninja’s Win Percentage. There are seven ninjas who have never lost a match in team competition (minimum two matches):

Michelle Warnky (8/8)

Meagan Martin (6/6)

James McGrath (6/6)

Karsten Williams (5/5)

Jesse Labreck (4/4)

Kacy Catanzaro (4/4)

Kristi Pratt (2/2)

Eight other ninjas have won at least 80% of their matches as Joe Moravsky (9/11) and JJ Woods (8/10) have the most total wins of these names.

Points Per Run

But a big wrinkle in Team Ninja Warrior is the “Anchor Run”. The competitor chosen to race last of those on their team can get two points instead of one if they win their match up. This same anchor runner is typically chosen in tie-breaker match ups. If we give these specific types of match ups, which are worth more to a team’s success, double value, we can estimate a Points Per Run.

A total of 15 ninjas average more than a point per run, meaning they are not only consistently winning, but also consistently defeating top notch opponents in clutch situations. Here’s a look at the top ninjas in points per run:

1. Karsten Williams 2.00 (perfect score)

2. Joe Moravsky 1.64

3. Travis Rosen 1.50

4. Drew Dreschel 1.43

5. Daniel Gil 1.38

T-6. Matt Wilder 1.33

T-6. Jamie Rah 1.33

T-6. Ian Dory 1.33

Adjusted Win Value

Another way to adjust a ninja’s wins for their competition is what I call Adjusted Win Value. This gives extra value to Ninjas who have consistently beaten other ninjas with a high winning percentage. For example, if you face someone who is a ninja legend like Jessie Graff or Joe Moravsky and come out victorious, you are rewarded for your efforts more than if you faced me out on the course. Note that these numbers are adjust for number of wins so as not to favor people with a higher number of races. When you rank using this system, here are your best competitors (minimum two wins):  

1. Brian Wilczewski 63.4%

2. Thomas Stillings 56.7%

T-3. Brian Arnold 54.6%

T-3. David Campbell 54.6%

T-5. Barclay Stockett 54.2%

T-5. Kristi Pratt 54.2%

7. Daniel Gil 53.2%

This means that Brian Wilcezwski defeated Ninjas that, on average, have a 63% win percentage.

Adjusted Strength of Schedule

One last thing I considered was an overall strength of schedule. This takes into account not just the ninjas that you beat, but also the ninjas that you didn’t. On a match to match basis, which Ninjas were facing the toughest competitors opposite them on the course?

T-1. Nathan Jasso 91.7%

T-1. Adam Grossman 91.7%

T-1. Rachel Mulvaney 91.7%

4. Melanie Hunt 84.4%

T-5. Mike Chick 82.9%

T-5. Geoff Lancaster 82.9%

That means that, on average, these ninjas were facing the best of the best competition which made it tough for them to pick up victories, even if they were on top of their game.

Final Rankings

I considered all these stats and a few others to come up with a final ninja rankings. Based on my own PER of sorts, here’s what I’ve got for your top Ninjas.

1. Karsten Williams 0.988
2. Michelle Warnky 0.940
3. Daniel Gil 0.936
4. James McGrath 0.935
5. Travis Rosen 0.928
6. Joe Moravsky 0.927
7. Drew Drechsel 0.924
8. Barclay Stockett 0.916
9. Ian Dory 0.910
10. Jamie Rahn 0.909
11. Ryan Stratis 0.904
12. Dan Polizzi 0.901
13. Jesse Labreck 0.897
14. Matt Wilder 0.83
15. Brian Arnold 0.892
16. Thomas Stillings 0.885

The rankings are set so that a “perfect” ninja would result in a 1.0 output and your average ninja comes out to 0.5. If you’d like to learn more about any of these stats or you catch an omission, feel free to reach out!

¹Note that, although carefully copied from the Sasukepedia page, there may be an error or two in here that throws off the final stats outlined above. My apologies in advance if anything like that happened. You can see the full results for yourself at these links: Team Ninja Warrior Season 2, Team Ninja Warrior Season 1

Also, note that these results do not count participants from Team Ninja’s College Madness series.