NFL Championship Picks

Jaguars @ Patriots (-7.5)

There’s been a surprising amount of drama around this game as Tom Brady’s hand has become a fascinating subplot. But Brady’s hand aside, I don’t see any reason to doubt the Patriots in this game. One of the biggest pro-Jags arguments I’ve heard has been Tom Coughlin, which I’m not sure I buy as a legitimate weapon in this game.

The secret about the Pats in recent weeks is that Dion Lewis is their biggest weapon. They can run the ball effectively and get the ball to the guy in space even with a slightly less effective Brady. Tom may take some hits and even throw a pick, but I think they can control the clock, utilize the running game and get the ball to Gronk. The offense will be fine.

As for the defense? I’m not overreacting to this Blake Bortles madness, but I’m also not going to bet on him to have success. Unlike the Steelers, the Pats haven’t had a ton of weird games this season where they almost blew it against inferior teams. They take care of business and they game plan effectively. I think the Pats should be able to contain the run like they did against the Titans and I just don’t see Bortles doing anything. It’s still Blake Bortles, right?

Pats win. Pats cover. On to the Super Bowl.

Vikings (-3) @ Eagles

I’m very tense about this game. Just like last week, I think we’ve got a decent shot. The Eagles are a similar team to the Vikings with respect to the fact that they have a solid run game, play great defense and have a quarterback that people are ready to bet against. It seems like another ugly game like the Raiders and Falcons is in store. Which means I will lose another year of my life watching on Sunday night.

I’m terrified of the Vikings receivers in this match up. Diggs and Thielen are great playmakers and make Keenum look good. We managed to contain Julio, but for whatever reason I feel like these guys after the catch ability is even more dangerous. That might just be a “we are playing the Vikings now and we weren’t before” type of feeling driving that statement, but all the same it’s how I feel. We avoided biting on the double moves last week, but I don’t think we’ve heard the last of that mistake.

Can the Eagles offense put up points? The running game was effective last week, but we weren’t scoring touchdowns. I’d like to see more from Alshon Jeffrey in this game. I was really excited to see them take a deep shot first play of the game (it’s exactly the call I wanted) and I hope that (weather permitting) they will try and push it a little bit at times. I don’t think we can just sit back and throw short passes all day again, but it worked last week so I’m not complaining.

Ultimately, I’m picking the Vikings here. Do I actually think they will win? I’m not sure. They definitely could win. But really, I’ve sucked with my picks this year and I have to use that reverse jinx magic to the best of my ability.