Survivor Power Rankings Week Twelve: The Finale

Another week, another person voted out with an idol in their pocket. It was a fitting end for Q who, after weeks of carefully playing his way out of the bottom ended up caught getting cocky at the exact wrong moment. I’m not really sure how he and Maria managed to convince themselves that could pull in Liz and Kenzie who were arguably two of the maddest people at Q in the game and both seemingly pretty close to Charlie, but they got the wool pulled over their eyes and now Maria has to essentially win out in the finale or her torch will get snuffed.

We are in the final five with only the finale remaining and I’m going to try something a bit different this week. Rather than do another set of winner power rankings (that will look pretty similar to my past rankings with some debate really only between Charlie or Maria for the top spot), I am going to do a ranking of what I think is the most likely final three scenarios and, if that scenario comes to fruition, my guess for how the voting might go. Let’s try this out …

10. Liz, Ben, Maria

While I could see Charlie and Kenzie being voted out, this scenario does depend on either an immunity or fire making upset from Liz/Ben. Most likely would have to be an immunity win and then one takes the other and I don’t think that is what either would choose to do in that spot.

Winner: Maria. She probably sweeps it.

9. Liz, Ben, Charlie

Basically the same thing that I said above applies here. I don’t see how Liz and Ben are both in the final three together unless Ben is way better at making fire than I am giving him credit for. I could see Charlie and Ben taking each other to the finals but under that scenario, Liz would have to win at fire and that seems highly improbable. This one rates slightly higher than the other because I think Charlie has slightly less of a target on his back than Maria.

Winner: Charlie. I also think he wins 7-1 or 8-0. Maybe Liz or Ben can catch a stray vote, but I doubt it.

8. Liz, Ben, Kenzie

This option seems unlikely to me for a couple reasons. If I was betting, I would guess that Maria or Charlie will win each of the next two immunities. It would take a shocker from Liz, Ben or Kenzie to flip the script and then also have someone to beat them in fire. Because that’s the other thing, in my fire power rankings (which is admittedly based on basically no data at this stage), I think Liz and Ben are two of the worst fire makers. Plus, as was said on the Know-It-Alls podcast by Stephen, it’s hard to imagine there being any drama at a final tribal with these three given the show hasn’t given much win equity to Ben or Liz so far.

Winner: Kenzie; she gets Tiff, Venus, Hunter and I think Soda, Maria, and probably Q as well. Tevin could go either way (is he bitter toward Liz or does he respect her game) and Charlie may throw Ben a vote.

7. Liz, Maria, Charlie

I think Liz is least likely to make it to the final three given a) she is not an immunity threat, b) she has not shown that she will go out looking for idols and c) she seemed to come up as potential target in last week’s episode, even if for a moment. If it is somehow not Charlie or Maria that goes at 5, I actually think most likely to get bounced is Liz. She has the least amount of tight bonds with anyone.

For this one to come to fruition, both Maria and Charlie would need to somehow survive the final 4 vote, which would be very tricky and then either Ben or Kenzie would need to get voted out. Can’t imagine its Ben so it would have to be Kenzie. Then Maria would have to win the immunity and take Liz with her which for whatever reason feels unlikely to me as well.

Winner: Maria; I don’t think Charlie can beat Maria without Maria on the jury. There’s too much for him to overcome in that scenario given what it seems the perception of him is out there.

6. Kenzie, Maria, Charlie

Now this would be a very fun final three, but I can’t see this happening. There are still two people that need to go home and these are very clearly the biggest threats left in the game. Barring an idol, you would have to imagine Maria or Charlie goes out at the final 5. I haven’t completely ruled out the possibility that Charlie can talk the others into keeping him around to beat Maria in the final immunity challenge since he is really their only chance at eliminating him (in which case maybe Liz goes home at 5?). Then one of these three wins the final immunity and does not choose Ben to take to the end? That would be a real shocker. Maybe Maria could take Charlie as a power move? Eh, I can’t really talk myself into it, but I suppose its plausible.

Winner: Maria, I think. Hard to imagine Charlie having much of a case if Maria is sitting next to him. Seems like the perception is that she was the ringleader and he was the follower. Even if he is potentially more likable, he doesn’t win the likability contest in this circumstance (and can he beat Kenzie in that contest?). I think Kenzie gets Tiff and Venus. Charlie gets Ben. Maria gets Soda, Tevin, Hunter, Q and Liz. But Kenzie could still manage to steal this thing if she flips over Ben, Liz and Hunter (needs five votes because Charlie would probably vote Maria in any tiebreaker).

5. Liz, Kenzie, Maria

If Maria wins out, I could definitely see this being the final three. Maria wins final five and manages to convince the girls that Charlie is too big of a threat for the end game so they kick him out. Then Maria wins at four and takes Liz, pushing Ben and Kenzie into fire where Kenzie has a nice moment that makes her an interesting threat for the victory. Technically, if Charlie goes at 5, even a Kenzie F4 immunity win would likely result her taking Liz and leaving Maria and Ben to fight it out in fire and we likely end up back here. This one is one of the first ones to feel possible.

Winner: Maria, I think. If she wins four immunities in a row to close out the game while also being one of the strategic leaders of the game, I think it would be a real surprise for her to lose. Not impossible given Kenzie’s social connections (she still probably gets Tiff, Venus and Ben, I think), but my bet is that there are 5 votes that clearly swing Maria.

4. Ben, Maria, Charlie

As I’ve already mentioned, Ben to me seems super unlikely to go at final five. Kenize, Maria and Charlie all probably feel like he’s a number for him plus he’s beatable. He’s also got a great shot at being taken to the final three. I think he would be the first choice for Kenzie or Charlie to take with them to sit in the finals. He technically has a chance of winning an immunity, but I doubt it.

So if we are looking at scenarios where Ben is in the final three, this one feels least likely to me. Liz or Kenzie would have to go out at five and the other would need to go out at fire. That’s possible for sure (as I’ve outlined, I think there is at least some chance for Liz to go out at five), but it still means that we have a vote where Charlie and Maria were both vulnerable to be voted out and nobody pulled the trigger on either of them and that doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen. But hey, if we get this, it’s quite a run for the Siga Three who went from their starting tribe all the way to the end together. That’s a story that makes sense.

Winner: As I’ve said, I don’t think Charlie can beat Maria in the end game. He’s probably got votes though, but he’d have more if he could have Ben on the jury. So I’m betting on Maria in this scenario.

3. Liz, Kenzie, Charlie

This particular scenario would need to be something like Maria goes out at five and then Kenzie wins final 4 immunity, takes Liz and forces Charlie and Ben to make a fire (there’s other possibilities, but I really struggle to configure a situation where anyone decides it makes sense to vote Ben out at five). That seems like a possible end game scenario and it would set up an interesting show down between Kenzie and Charlie to see who gets the title. This actually fits the narrative decently. I think there is a solid chance that Kenzie will lose to Charlie at final tribal. She has had a few different confessionals where she is underestimating his win equity and maybe that is the story of the season.

Winner: My instinct is Charlie based on the above but let’s see the votes. Charlie gets Maria and Ben (probably). I think Charlie also gets Soda and Tevin. Kenzie gets Tiff and Venus (probably). That would make the swing votes Hunter and Q and man what a tricky spot for them.

2. Ben, Kenzie, Maria

Although it’s not necessarily likely, I could definitely see a finale that includes Maria vs Charlie in a fire-making contest. Maybe Charlie puts himself there to try and take out Maria, maybe Kenzie or Ben wins and takes the other, leaving Charlie to finish the job for the team and coming up short. Given how central to the story the Maria-Charlie storyline has been, I think it would be fitting to see them in a dramatic fire making challenge. Charlie’s edit would also fit the narrative of “almost winner” that we have seen from many others in recent seasons.

There’s other scenarios that also get us to this point. I like this one a lot because we can end up here with Liz or Charlie going at final five. I also think it is very possible that Ben and Kenzie would take each other to the end given their bond. There’s a lot of paths we can take to this spot. And it would be an interesting vote between Maria and Kenzie.

Winner: At first, I never really expect Kenzie to have a shot, but when I add up votes, she always gets close. Ben still being in the game actually works against her, because I think she could use his vote, but I think she could get Tiff, Liz and Venus under the right circumstances. Could she steal Hunter, Tevin or Soda to get to four and force Ben to be the tiebreaker vote? Wouldn’t that be a fitting end to the season? Ben casts the deciding vote for Kenzie over Maria at the final tribal given the bonds that they created across tribes over a day one teammate in Maria? I’d love that ending, personally.

1. Ben, Kenzie, Charlie

This to me is most likely. If Maria goes at five, this feels like a lock for the final three. If Charlie wins final immunity, I bet he takes Ben and then Kenzie knocks out Liz in fire. If Ben wins, he could take Charlie or Liz and the other wins in fire. Kenzie might take Liz over Ben to try and get Ben on the jury as a vote for her, but their bond may also be enough for her to just take him. If Liz wins final immunity, then all bets are off I guess.

Winner: This looks a lot like scenario 3 so again my gut would say that Charlie surprises Kenzie for the win in a bit of a narrative surprise. I think Maria would go to the jury and be enough to convince a contingent to vote for Charlie and take this game. He gets Soda, Tevin, Maria and Q and then just needs to pick up one more. But can you imagine if Kenzie got Liz, Tiff, Venus and Hunter and then we had a 4-4 tie with Ben the deciding vote? His two biggest allies and best friends on the island and he has to pick who is going to actually win the thing.

I can picture it now. Ben walks up to the booth to cast his vote, agony and pressure all over his body. He can barely keep his addled mind straight. Kenzie makes a joke about how this time she hopes he writes her name down. Ben runs his hand through his hair and says “this does not rock”. And then he writes down …

…

Kenzie!

 

Only time will tell if I’m right …

 

Final Tally: Five for Maria, Three for Kenzie, Two for Charlie with Kenzie winning the two most likely scenarios (although I’m pretty sure I have some logic inconsistencies in there which we can ignore)

Survivor Power Rankings Week Eleven: The Curse Is Real

Due to some scheduling conflicts this week, I’m writing this almost a full week later than I usually do so my takes may not be quite as scorching hot as usual and my memory may not be quite as sharp either. But, hey, I have to manage my threat level out here.

7. Venus (Orange) – Down Two

I was concerned about Venus last week, but she ended up going up for a completely different reason than I was expecting this week. She ended up finding the idol and doing just barely too much with it (while simultaneously not doing enough with it) and she ended up blindsided and relegated to the jury. Even now I still can’t decide how I feel about Venus’s game. I consistently found myself saying things like “she’s right” while also seeing her castmates seemingly rag on her in every confessional. So was she a sneaky good player who just needed a few moves to steal the votes at the end or did she never have a chance because of a shaky social game? Not sure I will ever really know, but I do look forward to watching her on the jury.

6. Liz (Orange) – No Change

Outwit: 2 pt

Liz has been interesting TV these past few weeks and certainly meme-worthy, but I can’t imagine that she is our winner. It would be an all-time confusing victory arc in my eyes. Rarely do you see the person sleeping in the shelter while everyone is running around looking for idols go and win the thing. Although this season, the best thing you can do is not have an idol in your pocket. Those things are cursed.

5. Ben (Green) – Down One

Outlast: 2 pt

I dropped Ben here strictly because of the way the TV show is portraying him. On paper, he is likable, he has been a part of the majority alliance and he’s basically always been on the right side of the vote. He’s not a target and has some shields ahead of him that put him in an excellent spot to at least get to the end if not win this thing. However, the show has given him essentially no strategic content and, quite frankly, he hasn’t gotten much content at all in these critical episodes. If Ben wins the show, it feels like the editors did him pretty dirty out there. Had to be other ways to spin his story.

In terms of actual gameplay stuff that makes me concerned, my one pro for Ben was his relationship with Kenzie. I thought that would be an under the radar alliance that would help shape some of the end game with the two of them potentially working together to make a big move, particularly as Kenzie was gearing up for life without Tiff. But that didn’t materialize – in fact, Ben put the split vote on Kenzie this week to protect Q from a potential Venus idol play. She’s not going to be thrilled about that, essentially sinking the last thing that I thought Ben had going for him.

4. Q (Purple) – Up Three

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt + 1

I know that I’ve spent weeks now explaining that Q cannot win because no one will respect his game / want to reward his game at the end and I stand by that. I don’t think Q can win. But here’s the thing: if it is a Liz, Ben and Q final three (which I pray it is not), how can Q not be the winner? The show has invested so much more into Q than either of the other two and, dare I say, he’s the only one of the three who has really gone for it and played hard. I think this jury wants a winner that actually played the game and at least a few of them could put aside their feelings to ensure that their vote is consistent with that belief. Probably not Tiff or Kenzie but maybe Soda, Tevin, Hunter and Maria. One more would do it from there.

And to be fair to Q, he has been the undisputed target for three straight tribals and has not been voted out at any. In fact, he’s been a perfect smokescreen for his alliance to help take out a power player (or Venus) on each occasion and blindside someone with an idol. He gets another Outlast point for me just for the pure wildness that is this stretch of gameplay.

Like I said, he’s probably not going to win, but I think, at this point, he has the best odds of the long shots.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

Kenzie is an interesting spot. On the one hand, I feel like she has a lot of friends on the jury, a great social game and a good edit on the show. If she gets to the end, she has an interesting case for the million dollars and I would be at least a little afraid to go up against her. Realistically, if the winner is not Charlie or Maria, it’s gotta be Kenzie. However, I also think it’s super likely that Kenzie goes home next. She’s clearly at the bottom and, because she is still a threat, there’s not a lot of incentive to keep her around (honestly it is a credit to her social game that she was only the secondary target and not the primary this week). It kinda feels like she missed her window bailing on the Tiff blindside and that will be her story. Would love to be wrong given that she is my last hope for winning my Survivor fantasy league but I’m afraid this will end like every other season – me losing my Survivor fantasy league.

2. Charlie (Green) – Down One

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 3 pt

Charlie had held the top spot on my rankings for three straight weeks this week, but he slips down one position on this occasion. Charlie is still getting a glowing edit on the show and continues to get all the strategic story telling confessionals, strong social clips and just has the appearance of a very capable game player. However, I was not a fan of what he decided to do this episode. To me, it seemed like the move was to take out Q and weaken Maria a bit. I think he could justify it to Maria and still pull her back in the next week (where else is she going at this point?) and they could choose to vote out Kenzie or Venus at six if they felt that were the best move. The Q-Maria duo could end up his undoing in this game if he’s not careful. Plus, the players on the season do not see him as a mover and a shaker – they just see him as Maria’s “jester”. This doesn’t help that image any and, if he only takes her out when he’s at the very end and has to do it, is that really much of a move?

If you are playing devil’s advocate, you can point out there are still multiple votes left to get out Maria. I don’t think Charlie should have voted out Maria this episode if she didn’t have immunity because then Charlie would open himself up to go next, so he needs her around and probably needs her comfortable enough that he can pull off a blindside. And, of course, making the move to vote out Q would tie Charlie to Venus -  a person that they trusted so little that they went to Liz, mere moments after she had a massive outburst at the reward challenge, to make their move against Tiff. Venus with a secret advantage had to be even more scary to Charlie and, realistically, he was never going to hitch himself to that wagon.

For the most part, I like what Charlie is doing and it seems like the show likes what he is doing as well. He feels like he has a really great read on this game from a strategy perspective in all ways except … does anyone on the island now that he is playing a great game? It kinda feels like they don’t. Those are the people that ultimately pick the winner, not us, and that could be Charlie’s biggest problem right now. I hope he is timing out his finishing kick just right and he’s going to sprint into the lead at the last possible moment to steal this thing, but my confidence slipped a little compared to last week.

1. Maria (Green) – Up One

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt + 1

Outlast: 1 pt

Maria is back in the #1 spot for the first time since she started the season there in four straight editions of the rankings. She had sort of faded into the background for a stretch, but now she’s back in a big way. Last week she goes ahead and leads the blindside against Tiffany, giving herself a massive end game chip and this week she potentially saves herself from going home with a clutch immunity win. Sure, she fumbled the bag when picking people to come with her on the reward, but nobody is perfect.

She may be the biggest threat left on the board, but she is also the only person who can say, with confidence, as long as they make it to the end, they win. If she is good at making a fire (any idea if she is?), she only has to survive two more votes to be at final tribal. She could do that win another immunity win (she has two already) or potentially even find the idol that will be coming back into play after the Venus vote. This next vote, she would need two of Charlie, Q and Ben to turn on her to be punted out of this game – it’s possible that none of them will actually do it. Let’s see if she can push her luck all the way to the finale!

Survivor 46 Power Rankings Week Ten: Eating Good In the Neighborhood

This episode was very fun. And its even more fun because I have no idea what is going to happen next. Probably whoever finds the rehidden idol will immediately be blindsided.

8. Tiffany (Purple) – Down Three

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

Another episode, another person that goes home with an idol in their pocket. That’s the third time it’s happened this season and, by the way, there’s still time for it to happen one more time. I feel like we have reached the point now that it’s clear you aren’t going to be able to “read” the other players in the game and deduce when to play the thing and if your idol is public knowledge this early, it incentivizes people even more to blindside you. Just a bummer because I really enjoyed Tiff. She probably will be a fun juror though.

7. Q (Purple) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

At this point, I’m pretty sure the jury would rather give the $1 million to Jelinsky than give the money to Q. Not because they don’t want Q to have the money, but because they would never ever want him to feel validated that his strategy actually led to him winning. He’s a huge goat and he can probably ride that right into the end game, especially now that Maria has taken him under her wing as a personal extra vote.

Keeping all this in mind, is there any point where Q starts to get credit for what he’s doing? Maybe not in the eyes of the jury but perhaps in the eyes of the fans? He’s actually been playing super low key these last two episodes while sucking up all the attention of the people who are being blindsided. It would not have been possible to blindside two people with idols without him playing this pretty much perfectly. How much actual agency does he have? At this stage, very little – but the more threats that go out the closer he is to that coveted Venus-Liz-Q final three and then all bets are off.

6. Liz (Orange) – Up One

Outwit: 1 pt + 1

I’m giving Liz the Outwit point here for putting aside her hunger and her thirst for vengeance to make what I think was a smart move and blindside Tiff. Liz cannot beat many people in this game – you can argue she can’t beat anyone – but she has to like her odds against Q. Why waste a vote on him when you get out a real threat with an idol and challenge skills? However, I do not think Liz’s temper tantrum helped her win equity very much. Do I blame her for being upset that the one person who is not going to pick her to go on this reward won the challenge and subsequently did not pick her to go on the reward? Especially given that she is literally the world’s biggest Applebee’s fan? No, I do not blame her. But I don’t think it was a good look – particularly the part how she was mad at Q for blowing up her game. That part just seemed a little pouty to me and sort of undermines the seriousness/strategicness of her gameplay. Now that the show gifted her some rice, I am hoping she can get things under control because she still has at least some shot to win this thing as long as she can manage to be more likable than Q and Venus.

By the way, not a great a sign that Liz was real bad at making the fire this episode. Feels like that could have been foreshadowing for a loss in the firemaking challenge at the final four.

5. Venus (Orange) – Up One

I went back and forth about this one for Venus. On the one hand, I still think she’d be the favorite in a Q-Liz-Venus final three. I’d think she’d get Soda’s vote. I think she’d get Hunter’s vote. I think she’d get Tiff’s vote. I don’t think Liz would sweep the rest and I’m positive Q wouldn’t. So, she has that going for her. On the other hand, the Hunter-Tiffany blindsides back-to-back week combined with the continued goatification of Q has really thinned out the number of threats that are actually left in this game. Given how savvy Charlie, Maria and Kenzie have been so far, I am starting to think they may all look at each other and say, “hey, should we maybe start getting rid of some of these goats?” It has not once crossed their mind before so I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but the power players are making a risky move if they continue to go after each other and leave door open for the bottom dwellers to flip this on its head.

And, of course, Charlie and Maria went to Liz – who spent the entire last three days groaning about how much she is mad at Q and not sorry about it – over Venus to make the Tiffany blindside happen because they don’t trust Venus. They can at least work with Q and Liz, but Venus is very expendable. Plus, she could start to get aggressive/crazy with her gameplay after being on the wrong side of the vote for the first time all season. Certainly feels more likely than her calmly and quietly trying to reintegrate into the numbers.

4. Ben (Green) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

Ben is in a very weird spot. As you’ve probably noticed if you’ve been reading along with my rankings, I do not buy the narrative that Ben can win this game. I don’t really see his strategic chops and, although he is likable and a good guy, I don’t think he has the serious, cutthroat, mastermind vibe that all of these people obsessed with making big moves are going to turn around and give the title to. I also find it very difficult to see a scenario where he is at the end with Kenzie, Maria AND Charlie, seeing as those are his three biggest allies. Can’t imagine Ben beats any of them.

But obviously the jury would give it to him over Q, Venus and Liz so.

3. Kenzie (Purple) – No Change

Outlast: 2 pt

It is not often that a player benefits from being blindsided at tribal, but this whole Tiffany situation may have worked out OK for Kenzie. Sure, she doesn’t get the point for being the architect of the Tiff blindside, but she also doesn’t get the target that comes with voting her out either. She gets to have relatively little blood on her hands for this whole situation and there’s no way the fact that she floated Tiffany’s name last week can blow up her spot because Tiff is gone now. I’m pretty sure Tiff is a vote for Kenzie in the final 3 if she manages to get there. She’s definitely going to be vulnerable this next week, but if she can wriggle free of the vote, I think she has a really good chance at this thing. Hypothetically, if Maria or Charlie goes next week instead of her, I think there’s a very good chance the other one goes the next week (assuming no immunity wins or idol finds mess that up). A final 5 of Kenzie, Ben, Q, Venus and Liz would be super ideal for her – Ben is her #1 and I don’t think he would have the heart to backstab her and I have no faith that Venus, Q and Liz are going to suddenly team up against them.

That’s the ideal scenario for her, but how likely is that to happen really?

2. Maria (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 1 pt + 1

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 1 pt

To me, this was Maria’s best episode of the season. I thought she was awesome in the first episode, but I hadn’t been super impressed with her gameplay since then. However, I really liked this episode for her. To me, she was clearly the architect of the Tiff blindside. She wanted to vote out Tiff for a while and she got her wish. She brought in Q. She brought in Liz. The way she pitched to both of them was brilliant too. She played perfectly on both of their egos in a way that honestly may help keep her threat level in check.

However, the big question for me heading into the next episode is: will Charlie and Maria both be able to survive? In theory, the other players will be able to deduce that they are the biggest threats to win this thing and the only strong pair remaining in the game and they will feel a need to break them up. And the real wildcard – will they turn on each other? There have been no signs of that at all and maybe in a season filled with people turning against their top allies these two will go all the way to the end together, but maybe they are just the last domino to fall. I think the final 7 is too early to turn on each other (as mentioned, if one goes next week, I think the other is likely to follow directly behind), but I could see a huge vote coming at the final 6. If Kenzie goes this week, what other threat is left to distract the bottom dwellers with?

1. Charlie (Green) – No Change

Outwit: 2 pt

Outplay: 1 pt

Outlast: 3 pt

You could certainly make the case that Charlie should be knocked off his perch this episode. He was more of a follower than a leader in the Tiff blindside. He has established himself as the biggest challenge threat remaining after a 2^nd and two 1^sts in successive match-ups. And I think losing Tiff was more costly for him than anyone else in the game because they had a good working relationship, she was a physical shield and she is most likely to feel burned by him than anyone else (besides Q of course).

But this may all work out OK for Charlie. Maria’s big move may be enough to distract people from the fact that he is a challenge beast and, if they take the shot at their pair, it may be Maria that they choose to go for. To steal directly from something a friend of mine said, Charlie is not seen as a leader and that probably works in his favor. I’m obviously super bias since I’ve been rooting hard for him since day one, but I just feel like he has a really good read on the game. He seems to be riding that line between building a resume and not becoming a threat. He has a good relationship with everyone but he is not such a bright, shining light of charisma that he can’t fade into the background when it suits him. And I love that he waited until his confessional to brag about all the grip strength workouts he’s been doing rather than doing some crazy gymnastics celebration in front of the rest of the cast Hunter-style. I am confident he is a good player. He might be this season’s Carson or this season’s Jesse. Or perhaps he could be the guy that finally slips through and wins it.