Team Zach – 198
Points
Remaining
Competitors
Daniel Gil (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 3)
Josh Levin (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 2)
Ethan Swanson (2017 – City Finals, 2016 – Stage 2)
Team Outlook
The good news for Team Zach is that his three best
performers of the season all survived Stage 1. The bad news is that is third
best competitor this season has been Ethan Swanson. That’s not to say that the
Swan hasn’t had an awesome year, it’s more an indication that his other top
picks failed to get up the early points he needed to stay in the hunt. He’s
sitting 34 points out of first at the moment. Much like when Ethan Swanson
falls on a balance obstacle, you’ve got to be nervous about Zach’s long-term chances
of survival.
All joking aside, Swanson will be one of the key pieces
in a Z upset. If Swanson can get to the last obstacle of Stage 2, that’s worth
12 extra points for the squad and that’s very possible. But the real key to
this team’s success will be Gil. He’s the best bet for a Stage 3 run (he’s been
there before) and he’s one of a very small group of guys with the talent to go
all the way. Josh Levin will be the wild card. My boy has beaten every single
course he’s faced besides Stage 2 and the rock climber has the raw strength to
give Stage 3 a serious go. But Levin has never quite seemed comfortable on
Stage 2 and that has even the optimistic guys worried.
Dream Scenario
Levin goes Ian Dory circa Season 7 and survives Stage 2
before reaching the last obstacle of Stage 3. The carnage continues for many
other big names while Gil shoots up the all-time lists with another trip to
Stage 3.
“The Robber Has
Been On My Brick Since The First Roll” Scenario
Gil gets his hair in his eyes and falls early in the
episode. Then Swanson is fast forwarded after the first commercial break.
Later, it looks like Levin is going to hit his first Stage Two buzzer, but it
turns out he can’t swim. That’s a real problem for the final underwater
obstacle.
Team Larry – 200
Points
Remaining
Competitors
Jake Murray (2017 – City Quals, 2016 – Stage 2)
Chris Wilczewski (2017 – Almost Drowned, 2016 – Stage 2)
Team Outlook
After some shocking falls on Stage 1, Team Larry went
from seven buzzers down to just two and his son’s a little too bearded face is
creeping up behind him. But Team Larry is filled with back bounce performers.
Both Jake Murray and Chris Wilczewski didn’t even make it to a warped wall last
year, but they have been monsters in their return to Vegas. Chris is not so
quietly a top 5 Ninja on the season with arguably the most impressive
performances to date. He’s a legit Stage 3 threat and did I mention IT’S AN
EVEN YEAR??!!
Jake Murray may be a fun-loving guy, but that doesn’t
mean he’s not a fierce competitor. He’s one of the guys who wants to win the
most out of anybody and he had the fastest time out of anybody on Stage 1. That
should mean he will get to watch a lot of other guys take on the most difficult
obstacles before it’s his turn to go for the buzzer.
Scenario like
Larry’s City Finals
After the last obstacle takes out some of the giants in
the game, Chris Wilczewski becomes the first one to beat it and smash a buzzer.
Then, in a truly herculean effort, Wilczewski continues his momentum and
completes Stage 3. I know that sounds kinda crazy, but I wouldn’t say it’s
impossible considering how beastly this dude has looked. Murray adds in some
nice points with a deep run on Stage 2. He packs some goggles in his fanny pack
for the last water section.
Scenario like
Larry’s Stage 1
The curse of Grant McCartney finally catches up to Jake
Murray after the caddy gimmick on Stage 1. Then, after Chris Wilczewski is
seemingly going to beat the course with time to spare, he gets to the final
underwater obstacle and can’t make it through because … well … the dude almost
drowned last year. How are we gonna put a water obstacle in for a dude who
literally had a mental breakdown after being stuck under water?
Team Jarrett – 205
Points
Remaining
Competitors
Drew Drechsel (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 3)
Adam Rayl (2017 – Stage
2, 2016 – Stage 2)
Thomas Stilling (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 2)
Josh Salinas (2017 – Stage
2, 2016 – N/A)
Team Outlook
If Team Jarrett was a bit closer in the standings, I’d be
feeling pretty good about his chances. He’s got four really strong Ninjas left
including arguably the best guy in the whole thing (Drew Drechsel) and two of
my personal sleepers in Adam Rayl and Josh Salinas. I’m not a believer in
Thomas Stilling’s strength, but even he has a decent shot at least finishing as
a last obstacle of Stage 2 kind of guy. Realistically though, given the current
deficit, Team Jarrett needs two guys climbing on Stage 3 and maybe even a guy
on the rope climb to steal the trophy from his wife.
2012 Moravian Jarrett
Scenario
In case you missed, during Stage 1 Matt Iseman said a lot
of the other Ninjas believe Adam Rayl has the tools to go all the way. He shows
those tools on Stage 2 with an impressive performance (and maybe even gets
lucky with a hardest obstacle that is more strength based and less swing/weight
related). Salinas and Stillings each get their full runs shown during the
actual meat of the show and then Drew closes things out with not one, not two,
but three buzzers. Drew then cries tears of joy as Jarrett also cries tears of
joy.
2018 Bellmore Jarrett
Scenario
Turns out that even though a blog post Jarrett wrote
about ANW was briefly shown on an actual episode of ANW, that doesn’t mean he
knows how to pick a team. Just like in the Friend’s League (which I’m so far
out of I didn’t even want to write a stupid preview), my team flops big time
and the guys I thought were solid end up looking like Zach Lifman on the double-up-down-criss-cross
salmon ladder or whatever it is this year. Then, when it looks like Drew his on
his way to Stage 2, he has a shocking slip up on the last obstacle. Drechsel ends
the show crying tears of sadness. Either way, he’s crying. Lock it in.
Team Nicki - 227
Remaining
Competitors
Sean Bryan (2017 – Stage
3, 2016 – City Finals)
Tyler Gillett (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – N/A)
Mathis Owhadi (2017 – N/A, 2016 – N/A)
Hunter Guerard (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – N/A)
Team Outlook
This is a very young team with perhaps the least
experience of any of the five squads. Even the Papal Ninja Sean Bryan has only
made the Vegas finals once before this season (although he’s hit his last 7
non-Stage 3 buzzers which is better than anybody else can currently say). But
this is also a very talented team. Mathis Owhadi is looking like the best
midseason pick up we’ve seen since … well … Sean Bryan last year and that
worked out pretty well for whoever had him (yes, it was Nicki. Of course it was
Nicki).
I still like Gillett as an x-factor but don’t see him as
a Stage 3 guy. He hasn’t taken quite the leap I expected out of him. Guerard looks
much better which his hair cut I can tell you that. Not sure how that will
translate to the Ninja course. At this point Guerard is a win no matter what
happens as Nicki swapped out Abel Gonzalez for the Lizard before the start of
Vegas.
Overall, Team Nicki is just 5 points back with 4 capable Ninjas
left. I’d say this team is the underdog, despite their talent, but we’ve seen Team
Nicki win two straight trophies, so you can’t count them out.
I’ll Pick Up Sean
Bryan Scenario
Mathis Owhadi proves he’s the real deal. He’s not blinded
by the bright lights in the big city and shows that he’s got the magic in him.
If we see Owhadi on Stage 3, Team Nicki suddenly looks like they are in the
perfect position to win the title. To help clinch things, Sean Bryan continues
his saint-like climb to the top of the Ninja universe. He gives us visions of
Geoff Britten with a dazzling forearm display and punches the Stage 3 buzzer.
I’ll Pick Up
Charlie Andrews Scenario
Things are off to a rough start when they show a fast
forward of Mathis Owhadi’s run and Matt starts it by saying, “Until tonight,
Owhadi has hit ever buzzer he’s faced …” Then there’s a cut to Mathis falling
on the first obstacle. Then there’s trouble when Akbar says “Despite a lot of prayers
on the sidelines, Sean Bryan got crucified by the Wave Runner.” (Yes, I know
that joke is in poor taste, but this is better than the other Catholic Church
related joke I had planned here). For a moment it appears that Tyler Gillett is
going to be the hero, but he can’t make a finger-tip save on the last major obstacle.
But Hunter Guerard ends up being the last guy standing,
somehow miraculously giving Nicki the victory. Look, even in the worst-case
scenario, the Ninja gods will find a way for Nicki to win. She always does. It’s
just the way these things go.
Team Matt – 232 Points
Remaining
Competitors
Najee Richardson (2017 – Stage 3, 2016 – Stage 2)
Jamie Rahn (2017 – Stage
2, 2016 – Stage 1)
Nicholas Coolridge (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 2)
Eric Middleton (2017 – Stage 2, 2016 – Stage 1)
Team Outlook
Yes, this team has three of the 12 remaining competitors
in the competition who have hit every buzzer they’ve faced in Season 10, but I
think we need to talk about Eric Middleton. The bug ninja, a dude that I
literally smack talked for no reason in the first (and second to last) episode
of the American Ninja Debate podcast has scored as many points as Drew Drechsel
this season. Middleton has quietly made Stage 2 each of the past two years, a
fact that guys like Joe Moravsky and Kevin Bull can’t brag about. The dude is
legit and props to Team Matt for snagging him (and holding on to him when Jon
Alexis was just sitting there for the re-taking).
But, ultimately, if Team Matt is going to maintain it’s 5
point lead, it will likely be due to a breakthrough from Coolridge or Rahn.
Both of these guys seemed poised for history after Rahn survived Stage 1
without shoes and, perhaps more incredibly, the show actually aired an entire
Nicholas Coolridge run! Throw in Najee the Flying Phoenix (who is this squad’s
top performer to date) and this team will be hard to beat.
Having Zach As A
Brother Scenario
Najee Richardson proves he’s deserving of the Poster Boy
status he has had all season with a monstrous performance on Stage 2 and a
career best result on Stage 3. Jamie Rahn avenges (pun not intended surprisingly)
a near fall on Wing Nut Alley from last year and shows why he’s a hero with a
Stage 2 buzzer. Coolridge gets fast forwarded (this is an ideal scenario, not a
completely make believe one), but still gets to the last obstacle.
Having Zach As A
Brother Scenario
Overconfidence is still a big Ninja killer. Richardson
finally falls victim to it and mistimes a leap to one of the obstacles leading
to a splash. Jamie Rahn goes next, but he doesn’t listen to Edna Mode and gets
his cape stuck on one of the obstacles (no he doesn’t usually compete in a cape
but whatever). The bug ninja ends up as Matt’s top guy and instead of running
home to Emily with a nice pocket of dinner money, he ends up in 3rd
place handing some cash over to his favorite of Zach’s friend and his wife.
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