S48 Power Rankings: Strengths and Weaknesses

Tier One – (Kass), 0% Chance of Winning the Game

This is the tier of players who are mathematically eliminated from the game.

18. Stephanie (Green)

Strengths: Hat

Weaknesses: Everything that is not the hat

There have been many who have run into the chainsaw that is Sai and, unfortunately, Stephanie just so happened to be the first victim. My perception of the game had always been that you don’t want to do too much too soon, but perhaps, in the new era, that’s not how you do it on Survivor.

17. Kevin (Green)

Strengths: Positive Disposition

Weaknesses: Shoulder, Negatively De-positioned

I obviously was blinded by Kevin’s smile, nerdiness and high early visibility and didn’t see the flaws with this golden retriever’s game. Ultimately, I do wonder how much going on the tribe supply mission in episode one of the season hurts your long-term social position. Last season, both TK and Aysha were out early after representing their tribe and now Kevin joins them. Seems like Kyle is doing alright, but it helps a lot if your team never goes to tribal.

16. Justin (Green)

Strengths: Pepperoni

Weaknesses: Saying Things

I can’t give Pizza Man too hard of a time considering, in many ways, he was the unluckiest player of the new era of Survivor. He was stuck on a clearly inferior physical tribe which lost a third straight challenge. He is bad at playing Yahtzee. Mary hit a one in six chance at the S in the D (I’m not going to call it that again, I think). And even then, he had a seemingly above average chance of surviving before Sai said enough to Ced that Ced said Sai could stay.

Just like when I hit my pool ball as hard as I possibly can, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

15. Cedrek (Green?)

Strengths: He has not received a vote yet

Weaknesses: He has voted for everyone on his tribe

With all due respect to this nice doctor, I do not believe he has properly assessed the strategy of this game. I had my doubts in the Kevin episode and things got a heck of a lot worse after the debacle to close out Ep 3. He’s been the Ivar of the season so far, but unlike Ivar, he will actually need people to want to award him the money at the end based on the merits of his gameplay. He will not just be able to glide by tangential to the hotness of Dylan Efron.

Tier Two – Who’s Rachel?

14. Chrissy (Orange?)

Strengths: I don’t know

Weaknesses: I don’t know

Focus all of your brain power on Chrissy. Think back to your favorite confessional of hers. What does her voice sound like? Think about her challenge prowess. Can you name one thing she did in the blindfold challenge? Trick question, she sat out of the blindfold challenge. Trick question again, she actually competed. You don’t know which is true and that’s the problem.

 

Tier Three – Your Vote is Your Voice In This Game

13. Star (Purple?)

Strengths: Has an idol

Weaknesses: Only sort of

12. Bianca (Purple?)

Strengths: Puzzler

Weaknesses: Do we need two puzzlers?

Naturally, we have not been able to learn as much as we would have liked about Purple in the early game since they kept winning. To me, these two players had the least narrative built around them from a “winner’s edit” perspective and that makes me skeptical of their chances to steal this one. They also are both heading into a swap with a potentially missing vote and that could make them super vulnerable in any Purple vs Orange war.

The positive for Star is that if she gets that idol activated, she will have a trinket for safety and win her vote back. However, I don’t love her social positioning – where was she when the tribe was making the bonfire? How’d she end up on the outs so quickly? Meanwhile, Bianca has definitively lost her vote, but I think she has a bit more savvy to her strategic and social game so I think she may be able to better integrate in a swap situation.

 

Tier Four – Old Soup at the Deli

11. David (Orange?)

Strengths: Strength

Weaknesses: Finances

 

10. Eva (Purple?)

Strengths: Strength

Weaknesses: A Touch of the Foot In Mouth Disease

Over the course of these first three episodes, the show has been giving us some reasons why we should root for these two. For David, they highlighted some of his humor and charm, mixed in some nipple content and ended with a (debatably) heartfelt story about how he needs the mill so that his girlfriend doesn’t break up with him. For Eva, they had a (extremely) heartfelt story about her autism and her connection with Joe that literally almost brought me to tears and they prominently featured her work ethic and ability to overcome the odds.

However, much like a can of old soup at the deli, I ain’t buying it. I can’t see David navigating the post-merge game as a physical threat and, even if he somehow does that, I am not sure this cast will appreciate his particular style of game. For Eva, she is young, she admits that she struggles with lies and social cues and, not for nothing, she is also a challenge threat, so there are going to be some real gameplay challenges. And as some have pointed out, she could be one of the players most negatively impacted by the swap.

 

Tier Five – Sai Anything

9. Sai (Green?)

Strengths: Directness, Assertiveness

Weaknesses: Lack of Subtly, Inability to Take a Back Seat

The cool thing about Sai is that, even with 47 previous seasons to work with, I am not sure we have seen someone play the game quite like Sai. She took over her tribe, grabbed a dominant alliance, found an idol, and convinced Cedrek to change his vote for her all while accumulating a record setting number of confessionals through the first three episodes. I am not convinced she can go 100 miles an hour all the way to the finish line, but I’d love to see her try. The swap will be a big test for her as, in theory, the best way to play it now is to sit back, be an extra vote for one side and let Orange and Purple take each other out. But something tells me that Sai is not going to do that. But maybe it doesn’t matter.

 

Tier Six – Pray for the (Swap)

8. Charity (Orange?)

Strengths: Seems to be making genuine connections out there

Weaknesses: Likes her steak medium well

For no super compelling reason, Charity was at the bottom of the Orange tribe and she very well may have been bounced out if they had lost and went to tribal. Fortunately, the Green tribe made that a Moo point (like a cow’s opinion) and so she enters the swap with a chance to use her social skills to make some cross tribal alliances and set herself up as a player in the post merge.

 My bold prediction is that we will have a preview segment at some point this season where they tease a “girl’s alliance” that never actually materializes, with Charity as one of the key cogs in the “alliance”.

7. Mary (Green?)

Strengths: Luck

Weaknesses: Might have too much swag

 Let’s recap Mary’s time on Green. First, she was left out of the Stephanie vote and made a big enemy out of the all-powerful Sai. Then, she lost her vote and was seemingly a sitting duck but instead lost her number one ally in Kevin. Finally, she managed to hit her 1 in 6 odds on the Shot in the Dark to make it one extra day in the game, but still probably be at the bottom alongside Ced and Sai. But none of that matters any more thanks to this swap!

 I think Mary benefits the most from this change-up and I’m tempted to put her up even higher. She will likely jump at the opportunity to ditch her old tribe and hitch her wagon to a new alliance of power players and then she can ride in the shadows / the middle through to the end game. I like her confidence and I think she has the tools to be a force, but I need to see exactly how the dust shakes out on this swap before I jump her too high. Anyone else kinda want to see Sai and Mary stick together on the new swap tribe and have to decide if they are going to work together or throw each other to the wolves?

6. Mitch (Orange?)

Strengths: Shooting basketballs, doing blindfolded slide puzzles, getting me hype every time he does anything because I root hard for this man

Weaknesses: If I am rooting this hard, surely they are wary of him out there

 Much like Charity in that one confessional, I too am seemingly way too emotionally invested in the success of Mitch. My guy was in a bit of a precarious position under the old Orange tribe (seemingly could have been him or Charity), but now he swaps with a lot of solid legacy connections and the potential to make some new ones as well. He clearly comes across as trustworthy and genuine and I think that counts for a lot. I do think people will underestimate him physically and strategically given his speech impediment and his happy, upbeat vibe and this should work in his favor. But will the other players really let him get to the end? Unfortunately, I don’t think they will.

 

Tier Seven – My Contenders

5. Thomas (Purple?)

Strengths: Willing to do what it takes to win

Weaknesses: Might be this season’s villain

I like Thomas a lot and still am quite high on him but am trying to be realistic as well. The dude has definitely been getting a bit of a villain edit and there are not a lot of people who are villainous yet also win the show. I’m hoping this is more of the fun-loving villain edit like S16 or S27, but they could also be slowly setting him up to be taken out by our season’s winner or maybe even to dunk on him when he thinks he has outsmarted everyone else.

4. Kamilla (Orange?)

Strengths: She scored the worst score ever on Lowell’s preseason matrix

Weaknesses: Is the winner of a season filled with strong, buff people going to be Kamilla?

Much like Thomas, I’m also a big fan of Kamilla because I feel like she isn’t afraid to play the game hard and do what it takes to win yet can balance that with an ability to read people and make social connections. As a smaller competitor who hasn’t necessarily shown puzzle brilliance (B- on the slide puzzle for me), the key for her will be navigating the pre-merge game. In some ways, this swap could really hurt her and maybe we will be talking about her shocking demise this week, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed that she makes it to the merge where she will have a perfect shield with an idol in Kyle and she can potentially coast to the end and steal this thing.

3. Joe (Purple?)

Strengths: The exact guy that everyone would be happy giving $1 million to

Weaknesses: Y’all really going to sit at the end with pappa J?

Joe is in with a good alliance. He is clearly very trusted and respected. He has physical skills and social skills. There’s not much bad that you can say about Joe. Right now, he is well insulated, so I think he’s safe for a bit, but the question for me remains the end game. Will anyone bring him to the final when he is such a genuinely good dude? Perhaps he can ride behind the strength of his alliance for just long enough that he can beast out in challenges, make a fire and then take down the million. Or maybe he sacrifices himself for Eva and makes everyone love him even more (but to be clear, he loses in this scenario and so, for purposes of the draft, who even cares).

2. Kyle (Orange?)

Strengths: Got a little of everything, including an idol

Weaknesses: I’d like it if he had a touch more rizz

Kyle is another likable guy who seems to have good bonds with a lot of people on his tribe including Kamilla, David and Mitch (and maybe even Chrissy – it is impossible to know). He has an idol, which will likely be very important in the battle for power between Orange and Purple, and it will give him a chance to boost his resume. The only thing that I will say for him is that, in my not so humble opinion, he isn’t super charismatic. This is obviously fine, particularly when you are trying to downplay your threat level, but there is usually some type of baseline rizz that the Kenzie, Dee and Yam Yams of the world have. It is far from a dealbreaker, I just typically like to look out for that “it” factor when picking my Survivor winners is all. Did I use rizz correctly?

1. Shauhin (Purple?)

Strengths: The Goldilocks of his alliance

Weaknesses: When I find one, you’ll be the first to know

Honestly, there is a lot to like here. I think he has positioned himself very well in the California Girls alliance with Joe and Thomas. He is never going to be as physically impressive as Joe running blindfolded straight at the target or as strategically cutthroat as Thomas talking about throwing away the idol clue or as lovable as Joe offering people made-up wines or as flashy as Thomas with his steal a vote. But Shauhin has the right amount of all of those things. I really see him positioning himself well, being perfectly insulated and then sitting at the final tribal and everyone on the jury thinking, dang how did we let this guy get here, he’s the total package.

And by the way, if he does get to make his case, remember that he is a literal debate professor, so ...